Costco近期的反弹只是下跌趋势中的战术性回撤；做空目标为回踩900。
逐段跳播
你接下来的这只大股票是Costco，我们已经谈了很多关于消费者以及在这个俱乐部和仓储层面交易的话题。Don，你现在怎么看Costco？
Your next big stock here is Costco, and we've talked a lot about the consumer and about trading at this club and warehouse level. How do you view Costco now, Don?
事实上，我会寻找一个做空的位置。我用的是我们称之为价格反弹的最新方法。它实际上与交易黄金有些相反，在黄金上我寻找的是强劲的向上反弹。在Costco这个具体案例中，我实际上用的是我们最近看到的这波反弹。
这波反扑究竟是从哪里开始的？首先，Costco触及略低于1100的水平，然后跌到880区间，现在我们看到一波不错的向上反弹。好，我就用这波反弹来做空。我认为下行趋势仍然非常明确地存在。
我相信当前这波反弹不过是一次战术性撤退。而我将再次进行做空。
In fact, I would look for a short selling position. I'm using the latest method we call price rebound. It is actually somewhat the opposite of trading gold, where I look for a strong upward bounce in gold.
In this particular case with Costco, I am actually using the most recent rebound we have seen. Where did this backlash actually originate? Well, to begin with, Costco reached a level just below 1100, then dropped down to the 880 range, and now we are seeing a good bounce upwards.
Okay, I'll use that bounce to sell short. I think there is a downward trend that is still very much in place. I believe that this current rebound is nothing more than a tactical retreat.
And once again, I will proceed with short selling.
要做到这一点，我实际上会买入一个价外看跌期权价差。在这种情况下，我喜欢用价格区间之外的看跌期权价差来控制波动率风险、限制我在交易中的风险，并且只是想说：“看，我认为Costco至少会再次测试900区间。”而这正是这笔交易设立的目的。
To do that, I would actually buy an out-of-the-money put spread. I like to use put option spreads outside the price range in this case to control volatility risk, limit my risk in the trade, and just to say: "Look, I think Costco will at least test the 900 range again."
And that is exactly what this deal was set up for.
所以，我要给自己一点我称之为“时间的礼物”的东西。我会把目标定在12月18日到期日，12月18日到期日。我会买入930水平的看跌期权。再说一次，买入930的看跌期权，并卖出920的看跌期权与之对冲。
所以，这是一个完整看跌期权的价差，买价为10美元，借入成本为2.80美元。再说一次，这是一个价格区间之外的价差，通过它我们寻求至少重新测试900水平，这笔交易才能成功。
So, I'm going to give myself a little of what I call "the gift of time". I will target the expiry date of December 18th, the expiry date of December 18th. I will buy put options at the 930 level.
Again, buy put options at 930, and sell put options at 920 against it. So, it is the price difference of a full put option with a bid of $10, at a borrow cost of $2.80. So, once again, it is a difference outside the price range through which we are looking to retest the 900 level as a minimum, in order for this trade to succeed.
我们看到的是一波至少20美元的下行，或者说是低至40美元的下行。KG，当你看到这里的技术形态时，你看到任何看跌信号了吗？
Well, we are looking at a downward move of at least $20, or rather a downward move as low as $40. KG, when you look at the technical formation here, do you see any bearish signals?
听着，我和Dan在很多这类图表上通常意见一致，但至少就目前日线图而言，我不得不与他持不同意见。原因如下。如果你看一下，这只股票属于那种实际上倾向于先盘整、然后向上或向下突破的类型。
去年这个时候我们看到，该股不断创出更低的高点以及更低的低点。但这只股票在850水平附近找到了一些成交量和一些买家。而我已经设定了那个水平。我们看到了这波向上突破，然后是盘整，接着是那波爆发性的高点，我们达到了1096美元的水平。
自那以后，它一直在逐步回落。但以下是我更偏乐观而非悲观的原因。在9月25日，你会看到这根非常大的绿色蜡烛，带有看涨吞没形态。它已经收在20日移动均线上方，而这条均线一直充当支撑区域。
我们几次重新测试了那条移动均线并继续上涨。今天我们正在突破50这一水平。你大致看到的是962水平，它将在接下来几天测试200日移动均线。你的MACD指标处于看涨形态，12期指数移动均线在26之上，而RSI正在创出更高的高点。
Listen, I mean, Dan and I usually agree on a lot of these charts, but I'm going to have to disagree with him, at least on the daily chart for now. Here's why. If you look at it, this stock is the type that actually tends to consolidate and then break out either upwards or downwards.
We saw at this time last year that the stock was making lower highs as well as lower lows. But this stock found some trading volume and some buyers at around the 850 level. And I have already set that level.
We saw this upward breakout, then consolidation, and then that explosive peak where we reached the $1096 level. And since then, he has been retreating in successive steps. But here's why I'm more optimistic than pessimistic.
On September 25th, you will see this very large green candle with a bullish engulfing pattern. It has already closed above the 20-day moving average, which has been acting as a support zone.
We retested that moving average a few times and continued to rise. Today we are breaking through the 50 level. You are kind of looking at the 962 level, which is testing the 200-day moving average over the next couple of days.
You have the MACD indicator in a bullish formation with the 12-period exponential moving average above 26, and the RSI recording higher highs.
现在如果我们转到周线图，我或许会给Dan一点可信度。周线图多少显示出这个主要的上升趋势，以及我们已经走出的看涨旗形形态。回踩并重新测试那个看涨旗形可能会把你带回900美元附近，甚至870美元水平，然后才会再次上涨，而我们看到蓝色的20周移动均线充当阻力区域。
我说“没那么快”的唯一原因是，MACD指标看起来正走向看涨交叉，而COSCO的周线MACD交叉通常意味着三到四周的正面价格走势，然后我们才会看到回调，无论这个交叉有多小。这实际上代表了一个很好的经验法则。
所以，这是一次重大考验。我们看到的是一个逐步上行的形态，但它仍然是大上升趋势中的一支箭。
Now if we move to the weekly chart, I would give Dan perhaps a little bit of credibility here. The weekly chart somewhat shows this main upward trend, and the bullish flag pattern that we have come out of.
Returning and retesting that bullish flag could take you back to around the $900 level and even the $870 level before you rise again, and we see the 20-week moving average in blue acting as a resistance zone.
The only reason I say "not that fast" is that the MACD indicator looks like it's heading for a bullish crossover, and COSCO's weekly MACD crossovers usually translate to three or four weeks of positive price action before we see a pullback, no matter how small the crossover is.
This actually represents a good rule of thumb here. So, this is a big test. We are seeing a gradual upward pattern, but it is still an arrow in a major upward trend here.
观察点
这个频道对 $COST 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。