Costco 是他希望在衰退中持有的股票：会员费带来经常性收入和忠诚客户，而在经济崩溃时消费者会转向追求性价比，因此即便增长放缓，稳定增长和会员忠诚度也应能穿越任何经济周期。目前市盈率接近50倍，若股价下跌、市盈率降至15-20倍，他会买入。
逐段跳播
好，我们继续看第三只。再一次，这是另一只我从未持有过、但希望在衰退中持有的股票。大家似乎都去那里买批发商品的地方就是Costco。还有香肠，对吧？是的。香肠。这是一只我一直想持有的股票，我不知道有什么能让它比市场跌得更多。
Okay, let's move on to number three. Once again, another stock I have never owned, but would like to own in a recession. The place that everyone seems to go to for their wholesale goods is Costco.
And sausages too, right ? Yes. Sausages. This is a stock I've always wanted to own, and I don't know what could possibly make it fall further than the market.
看看Costco，这家不断成长的防御型公司。如你所知，会员为那些低价支付年费，从而创造经常性收入和忠诚的客户。你已经付了费用，这是沉没成本，所以即使你的整体支出减少，你也会继续回去那里。
一旦发生崩盘，购物者往往会转向性价比，而这正是它们的优势所在。再说一次，如果你已经付了会员费，如果你需要勒紧裤腰带，为什么不去价格更低的地方呢？这里的赌注是，稳定的增长和会员忠诚度将经受住任何经济周期。
即使它们的增长出现下滑，你通常也不会看到有人说：“在经济衰退期间，我对它们提供的价值没那么感兴趣了。”
Look at Costco, the growing defense company. As you know, members pay annual fees for those low prices, creating recurring revenue and loyal customers. You've paid the fees, which is a sunk cost, so you keep going back there even if your overall spending decreases .
In the event of a collapse, shoppers tend to shift towards value, and this represents their strength. Again, if you have already paid the membership fees, and if you need to tighten your belt, why not go where lower prices are available?
The bet here is that stable growth and member loyalty will hold up through any economic cycle . Even if they experience a decline in their growth, you don't usually see people saying, "I'm less interested in the value they provide during a recession."
这只股票很少看起来便宜。它从来都不便宜。所以，可能需要一次真正的崩盘，Costco才会显得有吸引力，但那些过去忽略价格、买入看起来定价过高的股票的人，在那笔投资上获得了非常好的结果。
如果我看到股价下跌，我想我会迅速反应，立即加仓。
The stock rarely looks cheap. It never looks cheap. So, it might take a real crash for Costco to look attractive, but those who overlooked the price and bought what looked like an overpriced stock in the past have had very good results on that investment.
If I see the stock price drop, I think I will react quickly and buy more immediately.
是的，这是另一只估值扩张在过去十年左右发生了显著变化的股票。这里你可以看到营收以大约10%的复合年增长率增长。它们的营业利润增长幅度略高于此。
Yes, this is another stock where the expansion of multiples has seen a remarkable change over the past decade or so. Here you can see revenue growth of approximately 10% on a compound annual basis.
Their operating profit rose by a slightly larger percentage than that.
我一直做关于它们盈利能力与会员订阅收入对比的视频，因为它们的运作方式让它们能以完全不同的方式思考，它们可以直接说：“你知道吗？我们的利润，我们的净利润，就是我们收取会员费所得。”
其他一切都可以按盈亏平衡来运营。而其他每一家零售商都必须反过来想：我们需要卖多少才能达到盈亏平衡？这给了你完全不同的激励，尤其是当你不需要提供15种不同的花生酱，以及其他公司提供的所有那些品种时。
所以，这就是它们价格低的原因。它们只是拥有一种根本不同的商业模式。
I've always made videos about their profitability compared to membership subscription revenue, because their way of working allows them to think in a completely different way, where they can simply say, "You know what?"
"Our profit, our net income , is what we get from membership fees." Everything else can be run at a break-even point. While every other retailer has to think about it the other way around .
How much do we need to sell to reach the break-even point? This gives you completely different incentives, especially if you don't have to provide 15 different types of peanut butter , and all those varieties that other companies provide.
So, that 's why their prices are low. They simply have a fundamentally different business model.
但市场为此付出了沉重的代价。这不是一家实现了超过10%复合增长的公司。这并不意味着它不是一笔很好的投资，但正如我所说，如果我们不是以50倍利润——也就是这只股票目前交易的价格——而是以15或20倍利润买到它，那么我同意，算我一个。
But the market paid a heavy price for that. This is not a company that has achieved compound growth of more than 10%. This does not mean that it was not a great investment , but as I said, if we get it not at 50 times the earnings, which is the price at which the stock is currently trading, but at 15 or 20 times the earnings, then I agree, sign me up .
这个频道对 $COST 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。