COST 在接近 890 美元时上调评级、并在升破 957 美元后仍维持买入；当前远期市盈率为 38，而通常为 40 多至 50 多，因此还有一点买入时间，但若继续上涨，安全边际将被抹去，并接近错失买入机会，不过它仍是一项出色的长期投资。
逐段跳播
9月21日，我把Costco的股票评级上调至“买入”，这是我开始跟踪这家公司多年来第一次这么做。这家公司通常享有很高的估值，因为它是世界上经营和管理最好的公司之一。
On September 21, I upgraded Costco's stock rating to " buy" for the first time in many years since I began following the company. This is a company that typically trades at a high valuation because it is one of the best- run and managed companies in the world.
我在Costco股价约为每股890美元时将其评级上调至“买入”，此后它已经涨到了957美元以上。所以我想回头看看，它现在是否仍是买入机会，还是已经太晚了，因为Costco的股票曾一度处于有吸引力的估值水平。
Since I upgraded Costco's stock rating to " buy" when it was priced at around $890 per share, it has already jumped to over $957. So, I wanted to go back and check whether it was still a buying opportunity or if it was too late, as Costco stock was, for a moment , trading at an attractive valuation.
Costco始终享有很高评级的一个原因是，它的单店销售额明显优于许多竞争对手。
One reason Costco consistently trades at a high rating is that its single-store sales are significantly better than those of many of its competitors.
例如，Costco过去十二个月的营收为3030亿美元，尽管它拥有的门店数量只有沃尔玛的约10%。所以，规模约为沃尔玛10%的Costco，创造了沃尔玛大约一半的销售额。
For example, Costco generated $303 billion in revenue over the past twelve months. Although it owns only about 10% of Walmart's locations . So, Costco, which is about 10% the size of Walmart, generates roughly half of Walmart's sales.
这是因为它的单店销售额、每平方英尺销售额和库存周转率都优于沃尔玛、Target、Home Depot，以及你几乎能想到的所有其他零售商。
This is because its sales per location, sales per square foot, and inventory turnover all outperform Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and virtually every other retailer you can imagine.
不过，Costco的利润率非常低，而这是有意为之的。它过去十二个月的营业利润率为3.85%。这比2017年的约3.2%有所上升，但升幅并不大，不是吗？
However, Costco operates on very small profit margins , and this is intentional. Its operating profit margin was 3.85% over the past twelve months. Well, that's up from about 3.2% in 2017, but it's not much, is it?
3.85%的营业利润率是非常低的利润率。Costco每做100美元的销售额，大约只赚到4美元的营业利润。当我告诉家人、朋友、学生和同事Costco的这个数字时，你真该看看他们的表情。
An operating profit margin of 3.85% is a very small margin . For every $100 in sales Costco makes, it earns about $4 in operating income. You should see the facial expressions of family, friends, students, and colleagues when I tell them this number about Costco.
许多人的普遍看法是，Costco的利润率很高，因为他们看到Costco经营得非常好。每次你去Costco，都会发现里面挤满了买很多东西的人。所有购物车都装得满满的。所有开放的收银通道都很拥挤，队伍排得很长。
因此，人们就以为Costco的盈利能力非常出色。难道不是这样吗？
The prevailing perception among many individuals is that Costco achieves huge profit margins because they see Costco performing very well. Whenever you visit Costco, you will find it crowded with many people buying many products.
All shopping carts are full. All the open checkout lanes are crowded and the lines are long. Therefore, it assumes that Costco is achieving excellent profitability. Isn't that so?
当我给大学生讲这件事时，他们都很震惊。或者，有时我会布置一个小组作业，让一个小组比较Costco和沃尔玛。当他们发现Costco的营业利润率只有约3%时，那个小组的所有学生都感到意外和震惊。
When I tell the university students about it, they are all shocked. Or, as you know, sometimes I assign a group project where I ask a group to compare Costco and Walmart. When they discover that Costco is achieving an operating profit margin of only about 3%, all the students in that group are surprised and shocked.
这是你在世界上任何一家成功企业身上能找到的最低营业利润率之一。难道不是这样吗？所以，这是Costco一个令人意外的事实，但它是刻意为之、有计划的。
It is one of the smallest operating profit margins you would find in any successful company anywhere. Isn't that so? So, this is a surprising fact about Costco, but it's intentional and planned.
这家公司如果愿意，本可以实现更高的利润率，但它选择把采购部门创造的收益让渡出去。如果他们找到了更好的价值，就会把它传递给采购方，也就是他们的顾客。他们想把这种巨大的价值提供给顾客，并维持顾客对Costco的忠诚度。这一做法几十年来一直很成功。
The company could, if it wanted to, achieve higher profit margins, but it chooses to pass on the benefits it achieves through its purchasing department . If they find better value, they pass it on to their buyers, i.e., their customers.
They want to offer that great value to customers and maintain their loyalty to Costco. This has been successful for decades.
Costco拥有全球最高的会员续费率之一。90%的Costco会员会续订会员资格。这些会员费可以说相当可观，基础会员60美元，高级会员120美元。还是说他们刚刚把价格提高到了70美元和130美元？
我需要查一下我的年度会员费，因为我本人就是Costco会员，而且我们在这门生意中发现了价值，尽管对我来说，由于店里人太多，它是最不吸引人的购物场所之一。感觉你必须在过道里一路小跑，因为只要你停下来一会儿，后面的人就会推着购物车撞上你。
但世界各地许多会员都认可Costco提供的价值。
Costco boasts one of the highest organ retention rates on the planet. 90% of Costco members renew their membership. These fees are substantial, so to speak , $60 for the basic plan, and $120.
Or have they just raised them to $70 and $130? I will need to check my annual membership as I am a Costco member, and we have found value in this business even though it is one of the least attractive places to shop for me due to the large number of people in the stores.
It feels like you have to run through the corridors, because if you stop for a moment, someone will hit you with their vehicle that is right behind you. But many members around the world appreciate the value that Costco offers.
这门生意能产生有吸引力的投入资本回报率，因为资本周转得非常快。例如，如果Procter & Gamble把一卡车产品送到Costco，这些产品在Costco需要向Procter & Gamble付款之前就已经卖出去了。难道不是这样吗？
This business generates attractive returns on invested capital because the capital circulates very quickly . For example, if Procter & Gamble sends a truck full of products to Costco , those products are sold before Costco has to pay Procter & Gamble for them. Isn't that so?
通常，两家公司之间进行交易时，客户会获得30天或60天的宽限期，用来支付你发往该公司的产品货款。Costco卖出这些产品的速度远快于这个期限。然后她手里就有了这笔现金，在必须向宝洁付款之前，她可以赚取少量利息。
Typically, when conducting a transaction between two companies, the customer is given a grace period of 30 or 60 days to pay for the shipment of products that you send to the company.
Costco sells these products in a much shorter time than that deadline. And then she has this cash on which she can earn a small amount of interest before she has to pay back Procter & Gamble.
因此，这种高盈利的商业模式使Costco实现了22%的投资资本回报率，超过公司加权平均资本成本的两倍，对投资来说是非常有吸引力的比率。
Therefore, this highly profitable business model allows Costco to achieve a return on invested capital of 22%, which is more than double the company's weighted average cost of capital, a very attractive ratio for investment.
我提到过我在9月21日上调了该股票的评级，我可以在我的图表里给你看。我在2026年9月21日上调了Costco的股票评级。我已经在电子表格里新增了一列，用来突出显示我对一家公司所做的最新变动，我可以在那里为Costco列出这一项。我在2026年9月21日上调了它的评级。
I mentioned that I upgraded the stock rating on September 21st, and I can show you that here in my chart. I upgraded Costco's stock rating on September 21, 2026. I've already added a new column to my spreadsheet where I highlight the most recent change I've made to a company, and I can list that there for Costco. I upgraded it on September 21, 2026.
所以你可以看到，不只是我更新的时候，有时我只是重复我的评估。比如，有时我有一只股票评级为“买入”，我做一个视频说：“嗯，它看起来仍然像是一个买入机会。”是不是这样？这既不是上调也不是下调。
所以它只会作为一次更新出现在这一列里。但当我做出改变、当我上调或下调时，我会把它放在下一列，然后我会写上我做出那次上调的日期。我这样做是为了更好地追踪我的表现，也让你能更好地追踪我的表现。
So you can see that it's not just when I update, sometimes I just repeat my review. For example, sometimes I have a stock rated as a " buy" and I make a video and say, "Well, it still looks like a buying opportunity."
Isn't that so? This is neither a promotion nor a downgrade. So it will be here in this column as an update only . But when I make a change, when I upgrade or demote, I will put it in the next column and then I will put the date on which I made that upgrade.
I did this so that I could better track my performance and so that you could also better track my performance .
自从你做出那个变动以来，你提到Costco的股价在上涨，对吧？9月21日，它的交易价格约为每股897美元，更准确地说是每股898美元。今天它的交易价格是956美元。所以自从我做出那次更新以来，它每股上涨了约60美元。
所以看到股价在我上调评级之后确实上涨，我很高兴。
Since you made that change, you mentioned that Costco's stock price is rising, right? On September 21, it was trading at around $897 per share, or rather $898 per share . Today it is trading at $956.
So it has gone up by about $60 per share since I made that update. So I'm pleased to see the stock price actually rising since I made that upgrade.
不过，给大家更多时间积累Costco股票也是好事，因为它很少以有吸引力的估值交易。不过，我目前仍认为它38倍的远期市盈率估值相对有吸引力。你可以从这里显示的远期市盈率看出来；它很少以三十多倍的远期市盈率估值交易。
它通常以四十多倍的远期市盈率交易，有时甚至超过五十倍。我觉得那有点过头，有点贵。然后我会说，现在买Costco股票已经太晚了，我会等待更好的机会。
However, it was also good to give people more time to accumulate Costco shares because they rarely trade at an attractive valuation. However, I still see it currently as having a relatively attractive valuation at a forward P/E ratio of 38.
You can see that from the forward P/E ratio here; it is rarely traded at a forward P/E valuation in the thirties. It is usually traded at a forward price-to-earnings ratio in the forties, and sometimes even exceeds fifty.
And I feel that , you know, is a little over the top and a little expensive . And then I say it's too late to buy Costco stock and I'll wait for a better opportunity.
但眼下38倍的远期市盈率，我认为还有一点时间可以买入Costco股票，但如果它再涨一点，我会说安全边际已经消失，它正非常接近失去买入机会，尽管它是一家伟大的公司、一项出色的长期投资，而且还剩一点时间。
因此，我今天，2026年10月13日，在此重申我对Costco的买入建议。
But right now at a forward P/E ratio of 38, I think there's a little more time to buy Costco stock, but if it goes up a little more, I'd say the margin of safety has evaporated and it's getting very close to losing being a buying opportunity, even though it's a great company, an excellent long-term investment, and there's still a little time left.
Therefore, I will reiterate my buy recommendation for Costco here today, October 13, 2026.
这个频道对 $COST 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。