$COST · The Motley Fool · 2026-10-31
Costco 凭借其会员订阅模式、批发采购、定价能力、优异的资产负债表和旺盛需求而拥有强大的竞争优势，若 AGI 冲击就业，它可能变得更加重要。说话者预测其年回报约为 10.5% 至 11%（10% 加上 0.6% 股息），十年约 2.7 倍。他认为这对自身而言不够充分，也看不到信息优势；他不反对回避该股，并说明 Costco 并非具体推荐，而是为觉得该回报有吸引力的投资者提供的一个高质量、预期较低的替代选择，用以替代投机性的小盘股和“.ai”公司。
逐段跳播
我要重点提一家公司，Costco，它拥有惊人的竞争优势：会员订阅模式以及以批发价采购的能力。他们在订阅上拥有定价权。他们能够提价。他们不是强行提价，而是随着时间推移明智而审慎地提价。
他们拥有出色的资产负债表。市场对他们有很高的需求。
I will highlight one company, Costco, which has an amazing competitive advantage : a subscription model and the ability to buy at wholesale prices. They have pricing power in their subscriptions.
They are able to raise prices . They do not do it forcefully, but rather wisely and prudently over time. They have an excellent balance sheet . There is a high demand for them.
事实上，如果就业出现冲击——由于通用人工智能，我预计会出现这种情况——那么像 Costco 这样的公司对希望以折扣价大批量采购的普通消费者来说会变得更加重要。
In fact, if there are disruptions to employment, which I expect due to artificial general intelligence, companies like Costco will become more important to the average consumer looking to buy in bulk at discounted prices.
如果你想进一步了解 Costco，我建议你读一读 Charlie Munger 多年来对这家企业的一些看法。我相信 Costco 能实现每年10%的回报，外加每年0.6%的股息。因此，它每年可能实现10.5%到11%的回报。
If you would like to learn more about Costco, I recommend you read some of Charlie Munger’s opinions about this business over the years. I believe Costco can achieve an annual return of 10% in addition to dividends of 0.6% annually.
Therefore, it may achieve between 10.5% and 11 % annually.
在我们目前所处的环境中，这看起来可能不太有吸引力，因为这10%到11%的年回报在十年间大约会增长2.7倍。所以，如果你今天有10,000美元，而 Costco 的表现如我所预测，10年后你将有27,000美元。
Currently, in the environment we live in, that may not seem very attractive, because this annual return of 10 to 11% would grow by about 2.7 times over a decade. So, if you have $10,000 today, you will have $27,000 in 10 years if Costco performs as I predict.
这个金额看起来很低。我为什么要接受2.7倍的回报？我在短短6个月内就实现了2.7倍的回报。我不想把资金转移到一个所有人都知道的巨型重量级公司。关于这家公司，我无法获得显著的信息优势。我不会满足于10.5%到11%之间的回报率。
This amount seems very low. Why would I accept a return of 2.7 times? I achieved returns of 2.7 times in just 6 months. I don't want to transfer my capital to a giant, heavyweight company that everyone knows about.
There is no significant informational advantage that I can obtain regarding this company. I will not be satisfied with a return rate between 10.5% and 11% .
如你所知，这其实是可以接受的。如果你选择远离这样的投资，并且你意识到了这一点，而且你已经仔细考虑过，我不会反对。
As you know, this is actually acceptable. If you choose to stay away from such an investment, and you are aware of it, and you have thought it through carefully, I will not oppose it.
但我认为对许多投资者来说，即使你不投资 Costco，也请在第一个提议结束时问问自己：我期望的回报率是多少？我希望看到什么？如果我现在能从 Costco 获得未来五到十年10.5%的创纪录年回报率，这对我有多大吸引力？
But I think for many investors, even if you don't invest in Costco , ask yourselves at the end of this first proposal: What rate of return do I expect? What would I be happy to see?
If I could get a record annual return rate of 10.5% from Costco for the next five to ten years now, how attractive would that be to me?
所以，我把 Costco 摆在我们所有人面前。这不是一个具体的推荐，而是从精神、心理、情感和哲学的角度来说，我们现在面临的危险——不是走向预期较低的高质量公司，而是走向预期较高的低质量公司——在于其中一些公司会下跌50%、70%或90%，并且永远无法恢复。
So, I'm putting Costco on all of us. Not as a specific recommendation, but from a spiritual, psychological, emotional, and philosophical perspective, the danger we face now—instead of going towards high-quality companies with lower expectations, and going towards low-quality companies with higher expectations—is that some of these companies will decline by 50, 70, or 90% and will never recover.
而且我认为，在我们所处的环境中，除了那些基本原则之外，现在最好把目光投向像 Costco 这样的公司，远离那些名字里带“.ai”的小盘 IPO 或推销型公司。
And I think now, in addition to those basic principles in the environment we live in, it is good to look towards companies like Costco and away from small-cap IPOs or promotional companies that have a ".ai" name.
这个频道对 $COST 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。