$CRWD · Verified Investing · 2026-11-09
在连续四天下跌并出现跳空低开后,CrowdStrike 正从 219.35 的枢轴支撑平台上方形成更高的低点,且 RSI 处于 40,买方仍有空间,因此说话者预计短期将上探 230-240 区间,241 的缺口回补与一条已跌破的趋势线在该处构成阻力。若该计划失败,下行目标为 206.74 的缺口回补,支撑位在 217.50 附近;时间跨度约一个月。
逐段跳播
但首先,我有一个很好的交易机会,就在CrowdStrike上。这是CrowdStrike,CRWD,打包软件之一。我们开始吧。
But first, I have a great setup and it's on CrowdStrike. This is one of the CrowdStrike, CRWD, package software. Let's get started.
如果你关注那个代码,就是CRWD,他会给我们提供很好的技术分析,告诉我们在期权链上要看什么。好了,朋友们。就像我说的,我在关注Crowdstrike,今天涨了大约3%。但在过去三天里,它跌得相当厉害。
我们已经连续四天下跌,然后上周四出现了跳空低开,价格继续下跌。今天我们在尝试反转,但注意,我们正在从这三根K线中微妙地形成更高的低点,你明白吗?也就是说,我们的最低点在逐渐抬高,对吧?
If you follow that ticker, it's CRWD, and he'll give us great technical analysis on what to look for on the chain. Okay, friends. Like I said, I'm watching Crowdstrike and it's up about 3 % today, okay?
But in the last three days , it has sold-off quite badly. We have been experiencing price declines for four consecutive days, then the gap down occurred last Thursday and the price decline continues.
Today we are trying to turn around, but notice , we are subtly creating higher lows from these three candles , do you understand ? That is, our lowest points are gradually rising upwards, right?
所以,我现在在看一些支撑位,就是这个219.35的枢轴平台。我们连续三天触及这个水平,然后反弹上来了。
So, I'm looking at some support levels now , and that's this pivot shelf at 219.35. We hit this level three days in a row and have since bounced back up , okay?
另外,我们这里有一个缺口回补。它在206.74。在这个缺口回补的情况下,价格在这根红色K线上收盘,第二天跳空高开,升破219.35水平并再次走高。
Also, we have a gap fill here. It is at 206.74. In the case of this gap fill, the price closed on this red bar candle, and the next day it gapped up, rising above the 219.35 level and moving higher again.
尽管在图表上处于较高位置,我实际上在寻找一个短期的看涨期权交易。就股票而言,这将是做多,但当我们把它作为期权交易来谈论时,这就是为什么它会是看涨期权,对吧?所以我认为它有机会走得更高。
Despite being on the upper side of the chart, I'm actually looking for a short-term call play here. This would be a long position in terms of equity , but when we're talking about it as an options trade , that's why it would be a call , right? So I think it has a chance to go even higher.
由于价格现在在222.40,支撑在219.35,我现在看两个行权价——220和222.5。我们将在220和225之间建立头寸。
Since the price is now at 222.40 and support is at 219.35, I am now looking at two strikes—220 and 222.5. We will take a position right between 220 and 225.
价格现在究竟卡在哪里?这就是那根宽大的红色K线,我们从那里下跌然后又上涨。价格正试图突破它,但今天卡在这里了。
Where exactly are prices getting stuck now? This is the wide red candle from which we went down and then went up again. The price is trying to break through it, but it is stuck here for the day.
做得好,Jack,如果这个想法成功,你的目标在哪里?这可以通过看趋势线来理解。你能看到这里的虚线趋势线吗?它也给了我们第三个可操作的水平。正如你在这根绿色K线上看到的,价格上升并回到趋势线中部,然后从那里反弹。
这里也一样。价格在下跌时反弹了。这里完全相同。在跳空低开之前,价格在哪里找到支撑?就在上周,这条虚线趋势线。现在我们已经跌破那个支撑并向下移动,它现在将在上行时充当阻力。
Well done Jack, where is your target if this idea is successful ? This can be understood by looking at the trend line. Can you see the dashed trend line here? It also gives us a third level to play.
As you can see in this green candle, the price moved up and back to the middle of the trend line and bounced back from there. It's the same here. The price went up and bounced back when it was going down.
Exactly the same thing here. Where did the price find support before the gap down? Just last week this dash trend line. Now that we have broken that support and moved down , it will now act as resistance on the upside.
所以现在如果我们有一个交易论点,我认为Crowdstrike可以继续走高,这里会有双向阻力。这是241的缺口回补,我们在这里跌破,还有虚线趋势线,我们也在那里跌破。所以如果我们能找到一个在230到240之间获利的合约,那就是我在寻找的。
So now if we have a trade thesis , I think Crowdstrike can continue to move higher and it will have two-way resistance here. This is the gap fill at 241, where we broke down and the dashed trend line , where we also broke down.
So if we can find a contract to take profit between 230 and 240, that's what I'm looking for.
就下跌而言,在我们开始操作之前,Jack,如果这个计划不奏效怎么办?嗯,我总是会通过定投建仓。我会从小仓位开始,给自己机会在必要时改变策略。因为价格并不总是按我的方向走。现在,如果它对我不利,就像我说的,我们有机会在这里206.74回补缺口。
让我们谈谈这根K线,217.50。好吗?我们在这里有很多支撑。
And in terms of going down , before we start working, Jack , what happens if this plan doesn't work ? Well, I will always take a position by DCA. I would start small and give myself the opportunity to change strategies if necessary.
Because prices don't always go my way. Now, if it goes against me, as I said, we have a chance to fill the gap here at 206.74. And let's talk about this candle, 217.50. Okay? We are standing on a lot of support here.
我认为可能需要一两周才能达到这个水平。所以我会给它大约一个月的时间。我一直在为这个交易寻找这个时机。最后,RSI在40。这是日线图。所以我们现在有点接近下限。我们有足够的空间。有足够的上涨动能让买家进场推高价格。
I think it might take a week or two to reach this level. So I'll give it about a month. I've been looking for this time for this play. Finally, the RSI is at 40. And this is on the daily chart.
So we are now somewhat close to the lower limit. We have enough space. There is enough upward momentum for buyers to come in and push the price higher.
但现在如果我们谈论像Crowdstrike或新软件公司或Tempest AI这样的价差,我通常交易这些,价差可能很大,对吧?它们可能有点不健康。它们更加不稳定。一旦消息到来,它们就会疯狂波动。
But now if we're talking about a spread like Crowdstrike or a new software company or Tempest AI , which I usually trade, the spread can be big, right? They can be a bit unhealthy.
They are much more unstable. As soon as the news arrives, they move like crazy.
比如说今天Crowdstrike的零日期权成交量在增加,好吗?现在这并不意味着如果你看到那个,你会怎么想?我会说,有强烈的信念认为它会在当天涨到顶部。是的。所以它会让我有兴趣朝那个方向操作。
是的。那是错的。哦,不。是的。如果我们看零日期权,成交量在快速增加,那并不意味着它适用于明天。好吧。嗯,它可能是针对今天的,但不会意味着对明天的信念。
like let's say today zero day options are increasing for volume in Crowdstrike, okay ? Now it doesn't just mean that if you saw that, what would your thoughts be? I would say that there is a strong belief that it will rise to the top, on that very day.
Yes. So it would have made me interested in going in that direction. Yes. That is wrong. Oh, no. Yes. If we look at zero day options and the volume is increasing rapidly, that does n't mean it applies to tomorrow.
Okay. Well, it may be for today, but it won't imply faith for tomorrow.
好的。我在这里关注Crowdstrike。就像我说的,我这笔交易的计划大约是11到14天。但我总是把时间加倍,以防价格对我不利,我需要加仓。
Okay. I'm watching Crowdstrike here. And like I said, my plan for this trade is about 11 to 14 days. But I always double the time, in case the price goes against me and I need to increase the position.
所以在我们进入期权链之前,今天的看跌/看涨成交量是看涨的。买入看涨期权的交易者几乎是买入看跌期权的两倍。Ivy排名第82,正如你在这里的指标中看到的。所以我们现在必须花更多钱,尽管我认为我们几周前有一个财报,我们仍然需要为权利金多付一点。
所以我们需要大的波动才能达到盈亏平衡,如果我们能做到的话。
So before we go into the chain, put-call volume is bullish today. Almost twice as many traders are buying calls as puts. Ivy ranks 82nd, as you can see in the metrics here. So we have to spend more now, even though I think we made an earnings a few weeks ago , we still have to pay a little more for premiums.
So we will need major moves to reach break even , if we do.
Tabby,你还记得我在说哪些行权价吗?你说的是220到225。222.5。所以12月这里是222,这给了我们两个选择:220和225。这是一个很大的差距。
Tabby, do you remember which strikes I was talking about? You said 220 to 225. 222.5. So 222 here for December, that gives us only two options. 220 and 225. This is a big gap.
是的,是的,你说的是222。我明白了,是的,它们之间有很大的差别。哦对,不,跳过它。我看错了。抱歉,我看到上面写的是200。所以是的,220和225。222.5,不,嗯。抱歉,我只看到两个。二二二。哦,有一个222.5。太好了。
Yes. Yes, you said 222. I see, yes, there is a big difference between them. Oh yes, no. Skip it. I read it wrong. Sorry, I saw it said 200. So yes, 220 and 225. 222.5 No, hmm. Sorry, I only see two. Two two two. Oh, there's a 222.5. Excellent.
就是这个。还剩39天。太好了。我们来看看第45天。好。我喜欢,还剩39天,所以相当不错。已经过了大约一周。我们大约有39天时间让我们的论点生效。
This is it. 39 days left. So great. Let's look at the 45th day. Okay. I like it, it's 39 days left, so it's pretty good. It's been about a week. We have about 39 days for our thesis to take effect.
我在看222.5的行权价。这里的delta是0.751。这是一个很强的delta,因为如果我们选这个合约,我们已经处于价内,因为Crowdstrike当前的盘中价格高于行权价。
这就是为什么我们在某种程度上已经在为它付出价格。
And I'm looking at the 222.5 strike. Here the delta is coming in at 0.751. This is a strong delta because we are already in the money if we take this contract because the current intraday price of Crowdstrike is above the strike.
That's why we're already paying a price for it in some way.
嗯,现在Tabby,说说你对这个行权价的未平仓合约量和成交量的看法。好。未平仓合约量是571。
Um and now Tabby, give your opinion on the open interest and volume on this strike. Okay. Open interest is at 571.
好。在我们继续之前,你喜欢还是不喜欢这个571?我喜欢,因为它在你要我们看的范围内,在500到1000之间。是的,我刚告诉你要关注它,但为什么它好呢,Tabby?因为它表明有很多人留在那里。
Okay. Now before we go any further, do you like or dislike this 571? I like it because it's within the range you asked us to look at, between 500 and 1000. Yeah, I just told you to watch it , but why is it good, Tabby?
Because it shows that many people are staying there.
是的,但我们不是想确保交易的另一边有人吗?嗯,是的,看571,成交量来了。你喜欢成交量读数吗?成交量,意思是它不是零。是的,它不是零。大约有40个人来了。我说过如果成交量大约50会更好。所以,我们差了10。
Yes, but don't we want to make sure there's someone on the other side of the trade? Um, yeah, looking at 571 and the volume is coming. Do you like volume read? Volume, meaning it is not zero.
Yes, it is not zero. About 40 people are coming. I said it would be better if it was about 50 volumes. So, we are 10 short.
但是,朋友们,我更想再进一步看的是225的行权价。今天,这里有275的新成交量。
But , what I like, friends, to go a little further, is the strike of 225. Today, 275 new volumes are coming here.
我也看到了。它更像是那个水平的支撑辅助。如果兴趣很高,值得改变我们偏好的行权价吗?所以,你可以做。如果我们这样做,这是个好问题。所以,如果我们想做,我们几乎必须给出。
I see that too. It's more like support assist with that level. Is it worth changing our preferred strike if interest is high? So, you can do it. If we are, that's a good question.
So, if we want to do it, we have to give almost.
好,我们看看。这个行权价,如果我们买入,大约2100。嗯。好。如果我们买这个225,大约2000。所以,我们会节省大约100美元。我们的delta有点低。
Okay, let's see. This strike, if we buy, is around 2100. Hmm. Okay. If we buy this 225, it will be around 2000. So, we will save about $100. Our delta is a little low.
但是Tabby,作为交换我们必须做出什么让步?我想让你想想这个。请把镜头转向我们。delta低?嗯,delta是0.552。所以,它仍然是一个很强的delta。
But Tabby, what concessions do we have to make in exchange for this? I want you to think about this. Turn the camera towards us, please. With low delta? Um, the delta is at 0.552. So, it's still a strong delta.
我想让你现在想想价格走势。现在你选,Crowdstrike今天表现不错。是的。好。它上涨了4%。现在它在图表上涨到224.88。
I want you to think about price action now. Now you choose, Crowdstrike is having a good day now. Yes. Okay. It has increased by 4%. And it is now rising to 224.88 on the chart.
嗯。所以,如果我们选225,我们处于价外。然而,如果我们得到那个,Crowdstrike可能会涨得更多。我是说,现在它就在那里,大约4美分。
Hmm. So, if we take 225, we are out of the money. However, if we get that, Crowdstrike could grow even more. I mean , right now it's there, like, about 4 cents.
好。没错。那么,我们可以赚更多钱。现在,再进一步。如果我们支付2000或2100,我们的盈亏平衡价格会是多少?我们会在225行权价还是222.5行权价更快达到盈亏平衡?
Okay. That's right. Then, we can earn more money. Now, take it one step further. If we pay 2000 or 2100, what will be our break-even price? Will we break even faster at the 225 strike or the 222.5 strike?
我认为它会很快达到222。不是吗?还是不是?我什么都不说。我想让在家观看的人帮助他。给他灌输这方面的信心。因为Delta,对吧?如果delta高,它到达得快。
I think it will reach 222 quickly. Isn't that right ? Or not? I won't say anything. I want those watching at home to help him. Instill confidence in him about this. Because of Delta, right? If the delta is high, it arrives quickly.
是的,但我们要为此付出更多。我们是在付出。所以,如果我们付出更多,我们就是从底部开始的。
Yes, but we pay more for it. We give. So, if we give more, we are starting from the bottom.
那你会怎么决定?是承担付出更多的风险,还是争取赚到更多钱的可能?这完全取决于你。哦,我不喜欢这样。这么多决定!我一点也不喜欢。
So what will you decide? The risk of giving more or the possibility of getting more money ? It depends entirely on you. Oh, I don't like it. So many decisions! I do n't like it at all.
好。那么 Tabby,你能做些什么再进一步呢?今天,让我们认真思考,运用我们的分析能力。不再看指标了。我们面前还有什么,好吗?让我想想。你可以看看自己更偏好哪个 delta,或者查看买卖价差。
Okay. So Tabby, what can you do to take it one step further? Today, let's really think and use our analytical skills. No more indicators. What else do we have ahead of us, okay?
Um, let me see. You can see which delta you prefer, or check the bid-ask spread.
哦,对。哦,买卖价差。你总是可以再进一步,Tabby。好。现在,225 和 222 之间有 60 美分的差距。就 222 而言,价差要大得多。
Oh, yes. Oh, bid-ask. You can always take things a step further , Tabby. So okay. Now, there is a difference of 60 cents between 225. In the case of 222, the spread was much higher.
是的,225 大约是 80 美分。对,那就继续吧,Tabby。我今天想听到你的确认。那是什么?222 的价差很大吗?是的。
Yes, about 80 cents for 225. Yeah, so keep going then , Tabby. I want to hear your confirmation today. So what was it? Was the big spread at 222? Yes.
是的,我认为这不好,因为成本更高。不是吗?因此,价差越大,可能导致更多的滑点。而且除了产生额外成本之外,我们可能面临更大的损失。
Yes, I think it's bad because it costs more. Isn't that right ? Therefore, wider spreads can result in more slippage. And in addition to incurring additional costs, we may face even greater losses.
嗯。我知道我们把很多单腿加在一起了。我更倾向于 225。好了朋友们,你们听到我说的了。我们开始吧。我支持这一步。
Hmm. I know we are adding a lot of single legs together. I'd rather go towards 225. Okay friends, you heard me. Let's get started. I support this move.
好,很好。我喜欢这样。Tabby?看到买卖价差让我对这个决定更有信心。这是一个合理的操作。我真的很高兴你提出了这一点。
Okay, good. And I liked it. Tabby? Seeing the bid ask makes me feel more comfortable with the decision. This is a fair move. I'm really glad you brought this up.
好,Tabby,带我们开始这笔交易吧。好,我们决定对 CrowdStrike 做一笔看涨期权,我们……让我再看一下 IBKR。
Okay Tabby, get us started with the trade. Okay, we decided to take a call on CrowdStrike and we... Let me take another look at IBKR.
好,我们选择 225 行权价,因为买卖价差对我们来说比 222 更有吸引力。而且 0.5 的 delta 非常理想。它在我们理想 delta 的范围内。
Okay, we're taking the 225 strike because the bid ask is more attractive to us than the 222. And the 0.5 delta is excellent. It is within the limits of our great delta.
就在今天,成交量是 275,这真的很好,我是说非常好。我们的未平仓合约是 525,这对我们来说处于有利位置。所以我认为这对我们来说是一笔非常好的交易。
And just today, volume 275, which is really good, I mean very good. And our open interest is 525, which is in a good position for us. So I think this is a really good trade for us.
来吧,Tammy。干得好。朋友们,你们看,他走完了所有阶段。他有点犹豫,但在一点帮助下,他继续读期权链,我们成功了。我们找到了今天的交易方案。
Come on, Tammy. Great job. Friends, you see, he has gone through all the stages. He was a little hesitant, but with a little help he continued reading the chain and we succeeded. We found our trade setup for today.
给大家更新一下,我们在这笔价差上会花大约 2,050 美元。我们买入这份合约。这是一份看涨期权。它将在 12 月 18 日到期,这意味着我们有 39 天的时间来操作。
To give you an update, we will spend about $2,050 on that spread. And we are buying this contract. This is a call. It will end on December 18th, which means we have 39 days to work on it.
我们在这上面花的钱多一点。我们……不,不是一点。我们在这上面花得更多,因为 IV rank 已经达到 81%。这意味着,就权利金而言,与过去 52 周相比,我们处于昂贵的水平,但我们找到了合适的交易。
We are spending a little more on this. We ...no, not a little. We are spending more on this because the IV rank has come to 81%. That means we are at an expensive level compared to the last 52 weeks in terms of premium, but we found the right trade.
最后,根据今天的成交量和未平仓合约,我们将有足够的流动性来获得良好的成交。
And finally, based on today's volume and open interest, we will have enough liquidity for a good filling.
这个频道对 $CRWD 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。