CRWV 面临债务压力：信用市场定价其五年内违约概率超过 60%，部分高收益债收益率超过 15%，此前股价下跌逾 15% 并创下 52 周新低。德意志银行称这是买入机会，目标价 150 美元。我认为，如果 Anthropic 的 IPO 表现极佳且财报非常出色，CRWV 有望迅速回升至约 92。
逐段跳播
我们来看一下CoreWeave的日线图。该股昨天跌超15%后今天再度下跌。目前下跌7.5%，跌幅正在扩大。我们已经远离了高位。今天创下52周新低。
Let's focus on CoreWeave 's daily chart . The stock is declining again after falling by more than 15% yesterday. We are trading down 7.5 percent, which is widening the losses here.
We have moved too far from the high levels. We are at a new 52-week low today.
收益率出现了大幅上升。我们对债务产生了新的担忧。首席执行官Michael Entretor现在正在回应其中一些指控。
There has been a sharp rise in returns . We have new concerns about debt here. Michael Entretor, the CEO, is now responding to some of these allegations.
是的，正如我提到的，CoreWeave今天再度承压。早盘下跌7%或8%。
Yes, as I mentioned, CoreWeave is under pressure again today. It is down 7 or 8% in early trading.
这发生在投资者正在消化对公司债务负担日益加剧的担忧之际，Sam。彭博报道称，为CoreWeave债务违约提供保险的成本已升至历史新高。
This is happening as investors internalize growing concerns about the company's debt burden, Sam. Bloomberg reported that the cost of insuring CoreWeave's debt against default has risen to a record high.
信用市场目前——至少在我当时读到的那篇文章发表时——显示未来五年内违约概率超过60%。与此同时，该公司的高收益债券进一步跌入违约区间，部分收益率升破15%。
Credit markets now, at least at the time of publication of the article I was reading, indicate a probability of default exceeding 60% within the next five years. Meanwhile, the company's high-yield bonds fell further into default territory, with some yields rising above 15%.
这些抛售发生在该公司联合创始人Brandon McKeeby对《金融时报》发表评论之后，他在评论中表示，CoreWeave的长期目标是争取获得投资级信用评级，并获取规模大得多的资金池，为其进军人工智能领域提供资金。
These sales follow comments from the company's co-founder, Brandon McKeeby, to the Financial Times, in which he said CoreWeave's long- term goal is to try to obtain an investment-grade credit rating and access much larger capital pools to fund its expansion into artificial intelligence.
还应该指出的是，即便实时下跌约7%，华尔街也并非所有人都转向悲观。例如，德意志银行将近期的抛售描述为买入机会。它维持“买入”评级和150美元的目标价。
It should also be noted that even with this decline of about 7% in real time, not everyone on Wall Street is becoming pessimistic. Deutsche Bank, for example, described the recent sell-offs as a buying opportunity.
It maintains its " buy" rating and a target price of $150.
他们认为，尽管信用市场波动，CoreWeave的客户群、落地执行以及对AI基础设施的需求依然完好。然而，影响并不局限于新的云服务板块；可以说，这正是过去24到48小时我们看到的大规模AI基础设施抛售的催化剂。
They argue that CoreWeave’s customer base , implementation, and demand for AI infrastructure remain intact despite the volatility of the credit market. However , the effects are not limited to the new cloud sector alone ; you could argue that this is the catalyst for the large AI infrastructure sell-offs we have seen in the past 24 to 48 hours.
正如我们所见，“Curie”目前可能略高于其最低水平。
As we saw, "Curie" is perhaps slightly above its lowest levels.
如果Anthropic的IPO表现很好、财报也非常出色，我认为该股会回到相对较高的水平，我认为Coreweave会回到92。我认为如果一切顺利，我们能很快回到那个水平。
If Anthropic's IPO goes great and the earnings are excellent, I think the stock will return to a relatively high level, I think 92 for Coreweave. I think we can get back to that level quickly if things go well.
所以，我在看1月份，观察70和90的看涨期权之间的差价。今早这大约要花我4美元。随着股价回升，现在价格可能略高一些。如果1月份价格稳定在90美元以上，它会变成20美元。
So, I'm looking at January, and watching the difference between the call option and 70 and 90. It will cost me about $4 this morning. The price might be slightly higher now with the stock's recovery.
It will turn to $20 if the price stabilizes above $90 in January.