CRWV 看空：营收虽增长，但盈利能力极差；6.4 亿美元利息与 14.4 亿美元折旧被排除在调整后 EBITDA 之外。公司杠杆过高：约 100 亿美元净债务将在一年内到期，因此必须发债或稀释股权；内部人士在抛售；市销率 10 倍高于 Meta，同时却在亏损。
逐段跳播
Cororeweave 仅在过去一个月就下跌了33%。而在我录制这段视频时，它今天单日又下跌了12%。
Cororeweave is down 33% over just the past month. And at the time of recording this video, it is down another 12% on the day just today.
我们先从 Coreweave 谈起，因为 Cororeweave 在某种程度上引发了整个 AI 板块的抛售瀑布。
let's start off by discussing Coreweave because Cororeweave has kind of started a waterfall of selling across the AI sector.
而具体引发这轮抛售的是，Coreweave 的债券收益率大幅飙升，据报道现在已经达到15%。可能有些人不知道，债券被抛售或需求下降时，收益率就会上升。这意味着投资者在购买并持有 Core 的债务时，要求更高的回报或收益率。
这表明债务投资者对 Cororeweave 偿还债券债务的能力并不乐观，并且担心该公司未来的财务状况、现金流和盈利能力。
And what specifically started the sell-off is that Coreweave's bond yields have been spiking significantly and are reportedly hitting 15% now. Now, for those of you who may not know, bond yields rise as they're sold off or demand for them declines.
And what this means is that investors are wanting a higher return or yield for buying and holding Core's debt. This suggests that debt investors are not optimistic about Cororeweave's availability to pay its debts on its bonds and are worried about the business's finances and cash flows and profitability going forward.
所以我仔细看了 Cororeweave 的财务数据和最新的投资者演示材料。这里有一些要点我想展示给你们。在第一张截图里，我们可以看到 Core 的收入增长非常快，同比翻了一倍多。
然而，营业利润为负，利息支出约占整体收入的25%，仅上个季度利息支出就达到6.4亿美元。相比之下，总收入约为26亿美元。
So, I went through Cororeweave's financials and its most recent investor presentation. And I have some highlights here that I want to show you. In this first screenshot, we can see that Core's revenue is growing very quickly, and it more than doubled on a year-over-year basis.
However, operating income is negative and interest expenses are about 25% of overall revenue, sitting at $640 million in interest expenses just last quarter alone. Again, versus about $2.6 billion of total revenue.
不过，在这张表格的底部，Cororeweave 表示他们的调整后营业利润为正。但这仍然没有计入那6.4亿美元的利息支付，因为营业利润是息税前利润。所以即便按调整后口径计算，Cororeweave 每季度仍亏损数亿美元。
At the bottom of this table, though, Cororeweave says that their adjusted operating income is positive. But this still doesn't factor in the $640 million of interest payments since operating income is earnings before interest and taxes.
So even on an adjusted basis, Cororeweave is losing hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter.
接着看下一张截图，这是 Cororee 的现金流量表。年初至今，公司实现了36.6亿美元的经营性现金流，这很值得高兴，因为这意味着业务运营确实在产生现金。然而，它的资本支出年初至今达到141亿美元，仅第二季度就有64亿美元。
这意味着 Cororeweave 在资本支出上的花费远远超过它的收入。它之所以能做到这一点，是因为它在大量发债和稀释股权。今年迄今为止，它已筹集了165亿美元的债务，并发行了价值30亿美元的股票。
这是一家正在大力且快速加杠杆的企业的现金流量表。我认为这也是 Core 债券收益率持续上升的部分原因。
Moving on to the next screenshot, this one is Cororee's cash flow statement. And year to date, the company has done $3.6 6 billion in operating cash flow, which is good to see because it means the operations of the business are actually producing cash.
However, its capex has been $14.1 billion year to date and $6.4 billion in the second quarter alone. This means that Cororeweave is spending significantly more than it earns on capex.
And it's able to do this because it's selling a lot of debt and diluting. It has raised $16.5 billion in debt so far this year and issued $3 billion worth of shares. This is the cash flow statement of a business that is leveraging up hard and rapidly.
And I think that this is partly why Core's bond yields are continuing to go up.
下一张截图展示的是 Core 的资产负债表。这里我们可以看到，他们的流动资产为95亿美元，而流动负债超过200亿美元。所以在未来一年内，Cororeweave 约有100亿美元的净债务即将到期，需要处理，而它目前正在大幅亏损。
这不是一家盈利的企业。因此，Core 要在未来一年内偿还这100亿美元的净债务，就必须继续通过发债融资、给资产负债表加杠杆，或者不得不进一步稀释股东权益，来应对未来一年这100亿美元的净债务。
这家公司的财务状况并不强劲，尤其是还要考虑到它同时还在大幅亏损。
This next screenshot shows us Core's balance sheet. And here we can see that they have current assets of 9.5 billion versus current liabilities of over 20 billion. So within the next year, Cororeweave has about $10 billion of net debt that is coming due that it needs to deal with and it is currently losing a significant amount of money.
This is not a profitable business. So for Coree to pay off this $10 billion of net debt over the next year, it's going to have to keep raising money through debt and leveraging up its balance sheet or it is going to have to dilute its shareholders even more to deal with that net $10 billion over the next year.
This is not a company in a very strong financial position, especially again considering that it is losing a significant amount of money too.
现在，在 Core 的投资者演示材料中，就在开头附近，他们宣传自己在第二季度实现了15亿美元的正调整后 EBITDA，调整后 EBITDA 利润率为59%，这也是很多 NEOClouds 在做的。
他们主要是在宣传自己的调整后 EBITDA 指标。正如我在自己频道上分享过的，每当一家公司强调某个调整后指标时，我都喜欢去看看，好吧，这些调整项是什么，规模有多大？Cororeweave 在投资者演示材料接近末尾的地方确实有一张幻灯片，向你展示得出调整后 IBITA 指标的所有调整项。
所以，在第二季度部分靠上的位置，我们可以看到他们加回了14.4亿美元的折旧，这是企业的主要费用之一，然后还有那6.4亿美元的利息支付。仅这两项成本就超过20亿美元，而这些都是 Cororeweave 未来业务中真实且经常性发生的成本。
但如果你像 Cororeweave 那样做，干脆不看这些非常真实的成本数字，那么这家企业就有15亿美元规模的调整后 IBITA，以及59%的调整后 IBITA 利润率。在我看来，这个数字完全没有意义，因为它根本不能反映这家企业的盈利潜力，因为它最大且经常性的费用被剔除了，而现实中 Corweave 正在亏损大量资金。
Now, over in Core's investor presentation, right near the beginning of it, they promote that they have positive $1.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter with a 59% adjusted EBITDA margin, which is also what a lot of the NEOClouds are doing.
They are largely promoting their adjusted EBITDA metric. Now, as I have shared on my channel, whenever a company highlights one of their adjusted metrics, I like to go and take a look at, okay, what are these adjustments and how large are they?
And Cororeweave does have this slide near the end of their investor presentation where they show you all of the adjustments to get their adjusted IBITA metric. So, near the top for the second quarter, we can see that they added back $1.4 4 billion of depreciation, which is one of the main expenses of the business, and then also that $640 million of interest payments.
These two costs alone are over $2 billion, and these are real and recurring costs for Cororeweave's business going forward. But if you do what Cororeweave does and you simply don't look at these numbers, which are very real costs, then the business has $1.5 billion worth of adjusted IBITA and that 59% adjusted IBITA margin.
Now, this number to me is completely meaningless because it's not even close to a reflection of the business's profit potential since its largest and recurring expenses are being removed and in reality, Corweave is losing a ton of money.
那么，通过这个视频到目前为止我们了解到，Cororeweave 的收入增长强劲，但每一项盈利指标都很糟糕，而且它正在大幅且快速地给资产负债表加杠杆。Cororeweave 正在下一个巨大而冒险的赌注，赌它所有的资本支出最终能覆盖其不断增长的债务负担。
但它现在已经到了这样一个地步：这家企业的杠杆高得危险，如果盈利能力不开始改善，情况可能很快就会急转直下。他们还有略超100亿美元的净债务将在未来一年内到期，却没有利润进账来应对。
So, what we have learned so far in this video is that Cororeweave's revenue is growing strong, but every profitability metric is terrible and it's leveraging up its balance sheet significantly and rapidly.
Cororeweave is making a huge and risky bet that eventually all of its capex will pay for its ever growing debt load. But it's at the point now where the business is so leveraged that it's dangerous and it could go sideways very quickly if the profitability does not start coming in.
They also have just over $10 billion of net debt expiring over the next year and no profits coming in to handle it.
再加上他们未来一年资产负债表上有50亿美元的净赤字，这在我看来意味着，他们要么必须筹集更多债务来应对当前债务，要么必须大幅稀释股东权益来筹钱偿还这些债务。所以，当你有一家公司正在大幅亏损、自由现金流为负且深陷赤字，同时流动负债又显著高于流动资产时，这意味着这家公司处于财务压力极大的境地。
它的财务状况不好，必须尽快找到更多资金，这就是我在 Cororeweave 身上看到的情况。
Pile that on with the fact that they have a net of $5 billion of a deficit on their balance sheet over the next year suggests to me that they're going to have to raise a lot more debt to handle their current debt or they're going to have to dilute shareholders significantly to raise money to pay off this debt.
So when you have a company that is losing a significant amount of money, it's free cash flow negative deep in the red and it also has significantly more current liabilities than current assets.
It means that the company is in a very financially stressed position. its finances are not good and it's going to have to find more money quick and that's what I'm seeing with Cororeweave.
另外，他们在第三季度向投资者发布的季度投资者演示材料中，也没有展示资产负债表或现金流量表。他们有意省略了现金流量表和资产负债表。这是管理层的决定。他们只展示了利润表，其中也展示了调整后 IBITA。
然后在那份演示材料靠后的底部，他们展示了得出调整后 EBITDA 的计算过程。我的问题是，管理层为什么刻意不放资产负债表和现金流量表？这值得你们想一想。在我看来，这是因为当你看看资产负债表和现金流量表时，就会非常非常清楚地看到，这家企业杠杆过高，他们必须在未来大约6个月内筹集更多资金，否则真的会耗尽现金。
它处于非常糟糕的财务状况。这对我来说是一个重大、重大、重大、重大的危险信号。
Now, also they do not show the balance sheet or the cash flow statement on their quarterly investor presentation that they put out in their Q3 update to investors. They intentionally left out the cash flow statement and the balance sheet.
That was a decision on the management. They only showed their income statement which also showed their adjusted IBITA. And then later on at the bottom of that that presentation they showed their calculations to get adjusted EBITDA.
Now my question is why did the management deliberately not put in the balance sheet and the cash flow statement? Something for you to think about. In my opinion, it's because when you take a look at the balance sheet and the cash flow statement, it is very very clear that this business is overleveraged and they're going to have to raise more money within the next like 6 months or they're literally going to run out of cash.
It's in a very financially bad position. It's a a major major major major red flag for me.
现在，除此之外，我们还可以看到内部人士一直在抛售数量惊人的股票。让我在 Stock Unlock 上给你们展示一下。看看所有这些抛售。好吧，所有这些抛售。抛售量实在太多太多了。
这些都是数千万美元级别的卖出。这里有一笔上亿美元的卖出。还有联合创始人数千万美元的卖出。你会以为这些人会看好自己的公司，但他们全都在抛售多得离谱的股票。而你刚才在屏幕上看到的所有卖出，都只是过去，或者说都只是自今年10月22日以来的。
所以在过去两周里，就发生了这么多内部人士抛售，金额达到数亿美元，甚至数十亿美元。所以，看起来内部人士正在尽可能多地抛售股票。
Now, on top of all of this, we can see that insiders have been selling a ridiculous amount of shares. Let me show you this on Stock Unlock. So, take a look at all of this selling.
Okay, all of this selling. There is so so so much selling going on. And these are sells in the tens of millions of dollars. This is a hund00 million sale right there. There's tens of millions of dollars of sales from the co-founder.
You know, you think that these people would be bullish on their own company, but they are all selling so many freaking shares. And all of the sales that you just saw on your screen are just over the past or are are just since October 22nd of this year.
So over the past two weeks, there has been this much insider selling going on in the hundreds of millions of dollars, even in the billions of dollars. So, it seems like the insiders are trying to offload as many shares as they possibly can.
你知道吗？我甚至不能怪他们，因为这家公司估值高达430亿美元，市销率为10倍，这个倍数现在比Meta还高，尽管这家公司基本上在亏钱。他们根本没有产生任何利润，如果长期来看他们真能有5%到10%的利润率，我会非常震惊。
所以，给这家公司10倍市销率的估值简直荒谬。我认为它被严重高估了，而且这家公司处处都向我发出危险信号。
And you know what? I can't even blame them because this company has a $43 billion valuation, is trading for 10 times sales, which is a higher multiple than Meta right now, even though this company is pretty much losing money.
They are not producing any profits, and I would be shocked if long-term they actually have a profit margin of 5 to 10%. So, valuing this company at 10 times sales is ridiculous.
I think that it is significantly overvalued and all around this company screams red flags to me.
从这段视频里你可以看到，我当时对这家公司非常看空。我那时就指出它的杠杆有多高，以及内部人士在尽可能多地抛售股票。而现在，市场似乎开始看到同样的问题，开始意识到这门生意风险有多大、有多少危险信号。
我的观点和看法最终没有改变，甚至更加强烈了。我依然认为Cororeweave是一门风险极高的生意，同样充满了危险信号。而内部人士还在继续尽可能多地抛售股票。
From this clip, you can see that I was very bearish towards the company. I pointed out how leveraged it was even back then and how insiders were selling as many shares as they possibly could.
And now it seems like the market is starting to see the same things and catch on to how risky this business is and just how many red flags there are. My opinion and my views ultimately remain, but they are even elevated.
And I continue to believe that Cororeweave is a very risky business that is again full of red flags. And the insiders are even continuing to sell as many shares as they possibly can.