Core，我们记得，那就是我们昨天说要做空回落的那只，它正在回吐涨幅。

Core we remember that's the one we said to fade yesterday that's giving up its gains.

但我觉得，我觉得说实话，现在正在成为值得关注的股票之一的，是 Coreweave，呃，在融资方面，而且这有点像很多这些被打压得很惨的股票的故事，就是，你知道，是钱的规模，以及在这个 AI 领域里，这些公司从风投基金拿到钱，然后它们只是互相把钱给来给去，这几乎有点像，我不想说庞氏骗局这个词，因为它们在创造真实的东西，但资金流动的方式，这个飞轮太循环了。太循环了。

But I think I think honestly what's becoming one of the stocks to watch right now is Coreweave um on the financing and and it's kind of like the story of a lot of these stocks that have gotten so beaten up is that you know it it's the amount of money and the idea that in this AI space that these companies get money from VC funds and then they just give them to each other and it's almost like a little bit of a I don't want to say the word Ponzi scheme because they're creating real things but The way the money is moving around, the flywheel just too circular. Too circular.

而且，呃，它开始有点瓦解了，而且就像，如果人们在做算术，人们在做算术，他们会看着它说这些公司被高估了，而 Coreweave 就是那一个。就像2008年的雷曼兄弟。Coree 可能就是雷曼兄弟。

它可能是这一批公司的试金石。呃，所以我不知道。它不是我想交易的那只，但我绝对想把它放进我的关注名单。

And um and it's starting to unravel a little bit and and like if you if people are doing the math, people are doing the math, they're going to look at it and say these companies are overvalued and Cororeweave is the one.

It's like in 2008 Leman Brothers. It's Coree could be the Lehman Brothers. It could be the test case for a bunch of these companies. Um so I don't know. It's not the one I want to be trading, but I definitely want on my watch list.

verse one，呃，他在这里很厉害，是很棒的参与者，说：“Corewee 的 CDS 在1,000。它们毫无疑问会违约。”那是什么？

verse one who's uh who's great on here, great participant said, "Corewee CDs at 1,000. They're defaulting, no doubt." What's that?

你知道，这些债券昨天收益率大概到了9.5%。所以，他们为自己的债务支付9.5%的利息，这显然非常高。再说一次，如果他们不能让Nvidia出手阻止他们，那就会是个问题，因为现在没人愿意给他们钱了。

You know, they're they're uh the bonds were going at like 9 and a half% yesterday. So, they're paying 9 and a half on their debt, which is huge, obviously. Um, again, if they don't get Nvidia to stop backs stop them, it's a it's a problem if it's going to be because no one's going to give them money now.

而且他们赚得不够。我是说，他们还有一批积压的客户，而且这些客户都被锁定了，即使他们不使用这些空间，也必须付钱。

Um, and they don't they don't make enough. I mean, they've also got no they've got a backlog of clients and they're all locked in that the clients have to pay even if they don't take the space.

不过，哦，所以这对他们是好事。是的。哦，是的。而且Kore确实有一些真实的东西。他们确实有正在运营的数据中心。他们确实有实际收入。只是他们想把这个数字提高10、20、30倍，试了很多次。

不过他们确实有这些东西，而且做得相当不错，他们还有合同，有与Nvidia的联系。

But Oh, so so that's good for them. Yeah. Oh, yeah. And there are some things with Kore that are real. They do have active data centers. They do have active revenue. Um it's just that they're trying to you know increase that 10 20 30 different times.

Um you know but they they have those things and they've done it pretty well and they have the contract the connection to Nvidia.

BJM第二。是的，可以给它盖棺定论了。Neoclouds会是最先倒下的。它们基本上只是在替其他玩家背债。Edwin，是的，我觉得你说得对。我知道我不能用那个带肥皂泡的东西，但这看起来确实很像。

Jason，如果它们失败，Nvidia会非常难看，整个板块都会受到打击。而我们荷兰人有个说法，叫“烤空气”，专门形容这种估值。

BJM the second. Yeah, stick a fork in them. Neoclouds will be the first to tumble. They're basically just carrying debt for other players. Edwin, yes, I think you're right. I know I'm not allowed to use the thing with the air with soap around it, but this sure looks like it.

If they Jason, if they fail, the video looks really bad and the whole sector will take a hit. And we Dutch have the phrase baked air for these valuations.

所以，好吧。是的。行。关键在于，要弄清楚哪些是会失败的那批，如果CoreWeave会失败，得赶在它发生之前。

so okay. Yeah. All right. The key is going to be figuring out which ones are the ones going to fail if it's going to be coreweave before it happens.

我确实觉得CoreWeave很有意思。CoreWeave作为做空标的真的很有意思。我可能会买入CoreWeave的看跌期权。

I do think Cororeweave Coravee is interesting. Cororeweave is really interesting in terms of a bearish play. I might buy puts on Cororeweave.

是的，第一次被打下来的时候，我可能会，你知道，它可能会给你一次向上尝试的机会。所以，我是说，这波下跌有多快、有多猛？这是三天的图。我们看看一个月的图。很难看。

Yeah, first time it gets knocked down I would be you know it might give you one one attempted move to the upside. So, I mean, how fast and how furious has this come down? That's a three-day chart. Let's look at uh one month chart. Ugly.

也许，也许，是的，对我来说，在6730失败会是个问题。如果它试图上攻，到了6730左右然后被拒绝，那就要小心了，

maybe maybe uh yeah, failure at 6730 for me would be a problem. If it tries to move, gets to 6730 or so and rejects, watch out,

在Core上也会是同样的情况。我不想一开盘就去交易它。不。但如果它试图反弹然后失败，那它就可能变成一个有趣的交易机会。

it would be like the same thing in core. I don't want to try to trade it out of the gate. No. But if it tries to rally and fails, that's where it could become a fun trade.

我觉得这对CoreWeave来说确实如此，我也觉得对Netflix来说同样如此。这些形态真的很值得关注。所以现在我们在收盘K线形态的下方。所以这就是持续的弱势。所以第一个漂移目标是下一个重要的K线，就在这个位置，价格在65。

所以如果我们来到65并反弹，但无法升到6750左右上方，那下方还有更多下跌空间。

And I think that's really true for Core Weef and I think it's also true for Netflix. Those formations are really going to be important to see. So right now we're underneath the closing candle formation.

And so that's continued weakness. So the first drift is into the next important candle which is right here in terms of price at 65. So if we come into 65 and bounce but we can't get above 6750 or so, there's more downside there.

所以我想，就CoreWeave来说，CoreWeave那个数字是多少，给我们那个数字，我们要在上涨和下跌方向上关注的大概是哪个数字，来看多空争夺在哪里发生。

Um so I guess with coreweave with coreweave what's that number give us the number what's the around the number that we want to watch on the upside and downside to see the battles taking place.

好，所以今天的大战就是看我们能不能升到6750上方。好，那样买方就会开始进场说：“行，看看我们能不能把它推得更高，如果它升到6750、6760上方。”如果它丢掉65，

Okay so the big battle today is going to be whether we can get above 6750. Okay, that's for buyers will start to come in and say, "All right, let's see if we can push this higher if it gets above this 6750 6760." If it loses 65,

因为我是说，CoreWeave的65就是买入的可行/不可行线，6750、65。是的。如果它丢掉65，跌到59也不是不可能，而且它有下行压力，它的吸筹指标仍然是负的。它仍处于派发阶段。

所以我是说，这里的反弹感觉很容易就成为卖出区，很容易。

Cuz I mean, so coreweave 65 is the go. No go line for buying 6750 65. Yeah. If it loses 65, a trip to 59 is not out of the question and it's got negative pressure and it's got uh accumulation that is still negative.

It's still in distribution. So there's I mean bounces feel like they could easily be sell zones here easily.

我们讲了TLT，讲了Netflix，讨论过Balanteer，还有CoreWeave，我觉得这很重要，但开盘时你打算关注什么？

We we went over TLT, we went over Netflix, we went over we discussed Balanteer, um we have Coree, I think is important, but what what are you going to be watching on the open?

而且我，其实，开盘和盘前就快速下探。所以CoreWeave，我们现在有了我们的关键位，6750、65。所以那个65现在就要被测试了。6535。我不是，那又是我在平掉一些我不想看的东西。

好。>> 是的。我们看看 >> CoreWeave的65争夺战在Q的725上。我喜欢就 >> 在65下方。我们现在CoreWeave在65下方。>> 也许我们会在它正上方看到反弹。

我们看看。但人们不想 >> 而且它有很多派发。所以那真的是，那是重要的事。

And and I I actually quick quick drop on the open and the queue. So core weave we now we have our levels 6750 65. So that 65 is going to be tested right now. Um 6535. Uh I'm not that was again me just exiting some something I don't want to watch.

Um okay. >> Yeah. Let's see how um >> core weave 65 battle is on Q's 725. I like to just uh below 65. We have core weave below 65 right now. >> Maybe we get that snapback right above it.

We'll see. But people do not want >> and it's got a lot of distribution. And so that's really that's important thing.

>> 我买入了CoreWeave的看涨期权 >> 好 >> 看它回到65上方，买了67的看涨期权，花了57美分，看看它能不能守住65，我还持有61的看跌期权 >> 所以我就是在等一个缺口，不管哪个方向的大缺口。

>> I bought calls and coreweave >> all right >> see on the back above 65 bought the 67 calls for 57 cents see if it holds 65 I also own the 61 puts >> so like I'm just looking for a gap big gap either way.

>> 是的。所以，有吸筹。我是说，在这波下跌中，买盘多于卖盘。所以，我觉得那是个不错的位置，你可以去看一眼，然后说：“嘿，看看它怎么走。”你怎么衡量在哪里设止损？>> 我不设，因为我买的是50美分的期权。

所以，>> 所以就是全有或全无。>> 嗯，它动得太快了。等我意识到自己错了，它可能就只值15或20美分了。所以，这笔交易大概就是30美分的风险。>> 好吗？>> 你知道，这就是为什么我买虚值期权，因为我想要低风险。

我就是在等 >> 一个极端行情，不管哪个方向。呃，如果我买更接近平值的，那我就得用止损。但这些东西动得太快，很难。>> 嗯 >> 是的，>> 但那个65这个位置肯定是 >> 是的，他们在那里争夺。他们肯定在那里争夺。在那里争夺。

>> Yeah. So, got accumulation. I mean, there's more buying than selling here on this dip down. So, I think that's a good space for you to take a peek at and and say, "Hey, let's see how it goes."

How do you measure where you put your stop? >> I don't because I'm buying options for 50 cents. So, >> so it's all or none. >> Well, it's moves too fast. By the time I realize I'm wrong, it would be worth like 15 or 20 cents.

So, it's like a 30 cent risk on the trade. >> Okay? >> You know, that's why I'm buying the out of the money options because I want the low risk. I'm just looking for >> an extreme move one way or another.

Uh if I was going more at the money, then I would have to use stops. But like these things move so fast, it's tough. >> Um >> yeah, >> but that 65 level is is certainly the >> Yeah, they're fighting there.

They certainly are fighting there. Fighting there.

嗯，我卡在，不是卡住。我更多是，我刚开始关注CoreWeave，所以我有点 >> 就盯着这一个吧，因为我没法同时看这两个。

Um, I'm stuck in the not stuck. I'm I'm more in my like just started watching Core Weave, so I'm kind of >> just stay with that one because I can't watch two of these at the same time.

>> 我喜欢你在Core上给出的那个位置。>> 那个65。>> 是的。>> 是的。那是个值得关注的好位置。

>> I like that level you gave out on core. >> That 65. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. That's a good one to watch.

SpaceX看起来想要反弹。所以，Core在65的争夺战，那个判断仍然很棒。

SpaceX looking like it wants to bounce. So, core battles at 65 on still great call there.

但我没有全部平仓。

Um but I didn't get out of all of them.

我想对于coreweave来说，事情真的会那么合乎逻辑吗——好，我们觉得他们要破产了，那就做空，它就会一路下跌。事情从来没那么简单。

I guess with coreweave, I guess it's just is it that logical like, okay, we think they're going bankrupt, so let's get shorted and it's just going to go down. It's never that easy.

不，因为另一边总有人说：“不，你知道吗？我要买。”记住，如果所有人都认为这东西要倒闭了，它就不会有买盘，对吧？它就不会有买盘。但它确实有买盘，因为人们在想：“不，这已经跌得够多了，该反弹了。”

No, because there's somebody on the other side that is saying, "No, you know what? I'm going to I'm going to buy that." Remember, if everybody thought that this thing was going to go out of business, it'd have no bid, right?

It'd have no bid. But it does have a bid because people are thinking, "No, this has come back enough."

Tess说，针对你的观点，Corweave买了，呃，Kathy Woods这周买了Corweave。是的。她是个有信念的人，她的股票在经历了一轮非常糟糕的回撤之后确实轮动上涨了，但我是说，你怎么承受那种痛苦？

人们不想在投资组合里承受那种痛苦，他们就是不想，他们做不到，他们从生理上就做不到，除非你干脆关掉不看，几年都不去管它。

Tess said to your point, Corweave bought uh Kathy Woods bought Corweave this week. Yeah. and you know she's a conviction gal and her stocks did rotate to the upside after a really bad draw down but I mean how are you going to handle that pain people don't want to handle that kind of pain in a portfolio they just don't they can't they they are physically unable to do it unless you just shut it down and don't look at it for years

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我以72美分的价格卖出了部分核心看涨期权，这些是我以54美分买入的。

Um I sold some of my core calls for 72 cents that I bought for 54.

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