此前下调评级后，CRWV 下跌 14.5% 至 66 美元，促使我在 2026 年 10 月 14 日将其上调至买入，因为风险回报更具吸引力；DCF 公允价值约 81 美元。债务超过 510 亿美元，资本成本超过 14%，自由现金流到 2029 年前为负，因此在不确定性中信心较低。
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Korwef 的股价今天下跌了约15%，原因是市场传出其债务利息支出增加的消息。投资者越来越担心像 Korwef 这样背负沉重债务的 AI 公司，因为它们的债务余额不断增长，而利率又在上升，从而推高了偿还这些债务的成本。
Shares in Korwef fell by about 15% today on news of increased debt interest expenses. Investors are increasingly concerned about debt-laden AI companies like Korwef, as their debt balances grow and interest rates rise , increasing the cost of repaying those debts .
这正是投资者就“Korowave”股票暴跌一事来问我的问题。因此，我会详细谈谈我对这一情况的看法。投资者也在问，这次暴跌是否构成了买入机会，我也会在本视频中回答这个问题。
This is precisely what investors are asking me about regarding the collapse of the "Korowave" stock. Therefore, I will discuss in detail my opinion on this situation. Investors are also asking whether this crash represents a buying opportunity, and I will answer that question as well in this video.
周二，风险投资人 Chamath Palihapitiya 发布了一张图表，显示 Korweef 2032 年到期的 12.5 亿美元债券收益率触及15%，随后收于14.5%的新高。
On Tuesday, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya posted a chart showing that the yield on Korweef's $1.25 billion bond due in 2032 touched 15% and then closed at a new high of 14.5%.
这大致就是我此前为 Korwef 计算出的债务利率，所以我并不感到意外。需要注意的是，公司实际的债务支出或利息支出低于该债务的到期收益率。
This is roughly the debt rate I had already calculated for Korweef , so it was not surprising to me. It should be noted that the company's actual debt expenditure or interest expenditure is less than the return to maturity on that debt.
所以，就利息支出而言，假设他们今天以14.5%的利率发行新债，公司实际承担的成本大约只有这个数字的75%，可能略少一点，也可能略多一点，具体取决于他们会计师的精确计算，因为他们在该债务上享有折扣。
So, for interest expenses, let's say they issue new debt today at 14.5%, it will actually cost the company about 75% of that, maybe a little less or a little more , depending on the exact calculations of their accountants because they get a discount on that debt.
总体而言，这并不是一个非常令人担忧的数字，也不是公司利息支出的突然跳升。在其整个经营过程中，这一水平都相对较高。
Overall, this is not a very alarming figure or a sudden jump in the company's interest expenses . It was relatively high throughout its operation.
事实上，剔除10年期美国国债收益率变动的影响——也就是说，如果你衡量 Corweave 利率与10年期美国国债收益率之间的差值——公司的利息支出近年来很可能一直在收窄，因为公司的收入和盈利能力都在增长，签约客户更多了，销售额也增加了。
In fact, the company’s interest expense, excluding movements in 10-year Treasury bonds —that is, if you measure the difference between the Corweave interest rate and the 10- year US Treasury rate—has likely been narrowing in recent years, as the company’s revenues and profitability have grown, it has signed more customers, and sales have increased.
事实上，据跟踪 Korwef 的华尔街分析师估计，公司2026年将增长151%，收入升至128.7亿美元，2027年再增长104%，收入升至263亿美元，2028年再增长63%，收入升至428亿美元。
In fact, according to Wall Street analysts who follow Korwef, they estimate that the company will grow by 151% in 2026 with revenues rising to $ 12.87 billion, then by another 104% in 2027 with revenues rising to $26.3 billion, and then by another 63% in 2028 with revenues rising to $ 42.8 billion.
记住，2025年公司创造了51亿美元的收入。所以，大约3年后，他们的收入将增长八倍。这意味着公司拥有更大的销售和现金流基础，可以用来支付利息支出。当公司实现正现金流时，就可以用这些现金流偿还这些债务，使资产负债表更加平衡。
Remember that in 2025, the company generated $5.1 billion. So, in about 3 years , their revenues will have increased eightfold. This is a larger base of sales and cash flow that the company receives, and they can use it to pay interest expenses .
When the company becomes positive cash flow, they can use that flow to pay off these debts and achieve greater balance in their balance sheet .
因此，根据最新更新，CoreWave 的资产负债表上有超过510亿美元的长期债务，增幅显著。记住，2025年1月时，他们资产负债表上只有100亿美元的债务。
Therefore, according to the latest update, CoreWave has more than $51 billion in long- term debt on its balance sheet , which is a significant increase. Remember that in January 2025, they had only $10 billion of debt on their balance sheet .
我把这张图放在收入图之后展示，是因为公司正在为新建数据中心提供资金，以产生这些收入，而它主要通过债务来融资。他们借钱来建设这些数据中心，一旦建成，就开始产生收入。有客户在排队等候。
然而，为了产生这些收入，他们需要借钱。他们需要现金来建设这些数据中心。这就是其商业模式。
The reason I'm showing this chart after the revenue chart is that the company is funding the construction of new data centers to generate that revenue , and it's funding that primarily through debt.
They borrow money to build these data centers , and once they are built, they start generating revenue. There are customers waiting in line. However, in order to generate those revenues, they need to borrow money.
They need cash to build those data centers . This is the business model.
正因为如此，在我跟踪报道 CoreWave 期间，我一直强调，只有风险承受能力非常高的投资者才应考虑这项投资。它是市场上你能投资的风险最高的股票之一。
For this reason, during my coverage of CoreWave, I emphasized that this investment should only be considered by investors with a very high risk tolerance . It is one of the riskiest stocks you can invest in on the market.
它可以与量子计算类股票相提并论。我想说，它的风险略低于量子计算类股票，但已经接近市场上能找到的最高风险水平。基于这些新进展，我更新了 CoreWave 的债务成本，并计算出税后债务成本为12.5%。
总体而言，CoreWave 的加权平均资本成本超过14%。
It is comparable to quantum computing stocks. It's slightly less risky than quantum computing stocks, I would say, but it's approaching the highest risk levels you can find in the market .
Based on these new developments, I have updated CoreWave's cost of debt, and calculated the cost of debt after deducting tax at 12.5%. Overall, CoreWave's weighted average cost of capital is over 14%.
因此，由于这种高风险状况，我对 CoreWave 采用了高于通常水平的加权资本成本，属于最高之列。我还预计将连续三年出现负现金流。我估计，由于 CoreWave 大举投资建设这些新的创收中心，其自由现金流在2026年将短缺285亿美元，2027年短缺320亿美元，2028年短缺220亿美元。
Therefore, I am applying a higher-than-usual weighted cost of capital , one of the highest, to CoreWave because of this risky situation. I also expect three consecutive years of negative cash flow.
I estimate a shortfall of $28.5 billion in 2026, $32 billion in 2027, and $22 billion in 2028 in terms of CoreWave's free cash flow as it invests heavily to build these new revenue-generating centers.
我预计该公司在2029年之前不会产生正的自由现金流，到2029年它将产生50亿美元的自由现金流，此后这一数字还会继续增长。
I don't expect the company to have positive free cash flow until 2029, when it will generate $5 billion in free cash flow, and that number will increase thereafter.
总的来说，当我把从今天到长期的所有自由现金流估算加总，并用我的折现率（其中包含债务成本和股权成本）对这些现金流进行折现后，我得出结论：这只股票的公允价值约为81美元，而当前市价为66美元，这是在今天下跌14.5%之后的价格。
In general, when I calculate all the free cash flow estimates from today to the long term, and discount those cash flows using my discount rate which includes the cost of debt and the cost of equity, I come to the conclusion that the fair value of this stock is about $81 compared to the current market price of $66 after today's decline of 14.5%.
所以，今年早些时候，在Coreweave股价大幅上涨之后，我下调了它的评级。我告诉投资者，当时它看起来并不是一个很好的买入机会，因为那时的风险回报比并不吸引人。
So, earlier this year, I downgraded Coreweave stock after its price had risen significantly. I informed investors that it did not appear to be a great buying opportunity because the risk- reward ratio was unattractive at the time.
不过，在今天的大幅下跌以及近期的整体回落之后，Coreweave股票现在看起来是一个更具吸引力的买入机会。所以，我将在今天，2026年10月14日，把Coreweave的评级上调至“买入”。
However, after today's big drop and recent declines in general, Coreweave stock now looks like a more attractive buying opportunity . So, I will be upgrading Coreweave's rating to "buy" today, October 14, 2026.
你可以看到，我把Coreweave的评级上调为买入机会，但我对这一评级的把握程度相对较低，信心也不高，因为该业务在未来几年能产生多少现金流存在很大的不确定性。所以，考虑到这一点，我对这一评级信心不足。
You can see that I'm upgrading Coreweave's rating to a buy opportunity, but I have a relatively low level of conviction and a low level of confidence in that rating, given there's a lot of uncertainty about how much cash flow the business will generate in the coming years.
So, with that in mind, I feel less confident in this ranking.
观察点
这个频道对 $CRWV 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。