CRWV 风险高但具吸引力：需求强劲，季度营收近 26 亿美元、同比增长 112%，积压订单达 1040 亿美元；但被高额资本开支、大量债务和 6.26 亿美元净亏损所抵消。股价约 63 美元时显得被低估；我预计将反弹至约 80 美元或 80 多美元中段的移动均线附近。
逐段跳播
第一只股票是 CoreWeave，股票代码是 CRWV。我认为理解 CoreWeave 最简单的方式是，它本质上是在出售 AI 热潮背后的基础设施。
The first stock is CoreWeave, whose ticker symbol is CRWV. I think the easiest way to understand CoreWeave is that it is essentially selling the infrastructure behind the AI boom.
CoreWeave 运营着一个专为人工智能设计的云平台。企业需要海量的 GPU 算力来训练 AI 模型，并以越来越快的速度通过推理运行这些模型。CoreWeave 建设基础设施，获取大量 GPU、数据中心容量和电力，然后把这种算力卖给全球最大的 AI 科技公司。
CoreWeave operates a cloud platform specifically designed for artificial intelligence. Companies need massive amounts of GPU computing power to train AI models and to run those models through inference at an increasing rate.
CoreWeave builds infrastructure , gains access to vast amounts of GPU and data center capacity and power , and then sells that computing power to the world's largest AI technology companies.
我最喜欢的一点是，CoreWeave 不必事先预测哪个 AI 模型会胜出。如果 AI 的使用持续增长——我相信会如此——总得有人来提供算力。
What I like most is that CoreWeave does n't have to predict in advance which AI model will win. If the use of AI continues to grow, which I believe will happen, someone will have to provide the computing power.
可以把卖铲子和镐头想象成淘金热。每个人都在争相打造最好的 AI 模型，而 CoreWeave 卖给他们打造模型所需的基础设施。目前它的需求非常巨大。
Think of selling axes and shovels as being like the Gold Rush or the gold rush. Everyone is fighting to build the best AI model , but CoreWeave is selling them the infrastructure they need to build it. And currently its demand is very huge.
在最近一个季度，CoreWeave 实现了近26亿美元的营收，同比增长112%。哇，这太不可思议了！
In the latest quarter, CoreWeave generated revenue of nearly $2.6 billion , which was 112 percent year-over-year growth. Wow, that's incredible!
不过，这里有一个数字真正引起了我的注意。CoreWeave 最终以近1040亿美元的营收积压订单结束了这个季度。好，所以当我展望未来时，这些积压订单实际上就是未来的收入。这比上一年多了246%。
更令人惊讶的是，这1040亿美元还不包括 CoreWeave 在第三季度初新增的超过250亿美元的额外客户承诺。
However, there is one number here that really caught my eye. CoreWeave ultimately ended their quarter with a revenue backlog of nearly 104 billion. Okay, so when I look to the future, that backlog is actually future revenue.
And that was 246% more than the previous year. And what's even more surprising is that the 104 billion does n't include the more than 25 billion additional customer commitments that Coreweave added at the start of the third quarter.
所以，需求绝对不是这家公司最大的担忧。他们本季度产生了约15亿美元调整后 EBITDA，调整后 EBITDA 利润率为59%。
So, demand is definitely not the biggest concern for this company. They generated about 1.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA this quarter , giving them a 59% adjusted EBITDA margin.
然而，现在考虑这只股票的投资者需要非常小心，因为股价已经跌了很多。市场目前处于一片血洗的状态。不过，CoreWeav 正在花费惊人的资金建设这些基础设施。仅第二季度的资本支出就约为94亿美元，而公司背负着数千亿美元的债务负担。
他们还报告本季度 GAAP 净亏损约6.26亿美元。
However, investors who are considering this stock now need to be very careful here , as the stock has fallen a lot. The market is currently in a state of complete bloodbath. However, CoreWeav is spending an incredible amount of money building this infrastructure.
So, capital expenditure in the second quarter alone was about $9.4 billion and the company is carrying a debt burden of hundreds of billions of dollars. They also reported a GAAP net loss of about $626 million for the quarter.
所以，它并不是一家真正完美的低风险 AI 公司。事实上，它是一个高风险的标的，这就是为什么我在 CoreWeave 上交易期权。我认为这些期权看起来非常有利可图。我是说，如果你想赚大钱，对吧？
如果你真的想让投资组合增长，你需要有高隐含波动率的东西，而 CoreWeave 波动很大。所以我实际上有兴趣现在就买入。
So, it's not really a perfect low-risk AI company. In fact, it's a high- risk name, which is why I'm trading options on CoreWeave. I think the options look very profitable. I mean, if you want to make a lot of money, right?
If you really want to grow your portfolio, you need something with high implied volatility , and CoreWeave has a lot of volatility. So, I'm actually interested in buying it right now.
现在，看涨的理由是，有大量来自 coronavirus 的合同需求、惊人的营收增长，以及一旦基础设施全面投入运营经济状况可能改善的潜力。看跌的理由是，他们正在花费数百万，我是说数十亿美元，这是一笔巨额资金，而且他们为了实现这种增长承担了大量债务。
我认为这没问题，但这是这个故事的一个风险，而这正是为什么这个价格对 CoreWeave 如此重要。所以，即使是一个伟大的增长故事，如果你付出的价格太高，也可能是一笔糟糕的投资。
Now, the bull case is that there is a lot of contract demand from the coronavirus, incredible revenue growth, and the potential for economic conditions to improve once infrastructure is fully operational.
The bear case is that they are spending millions, I mean billions of dollars and it is a huge amount of money and they are taking on a lot of debt to achieve this growth. I think it's fine , but it's a risk to the story and that's exactly why this price is so important for Coreweave.
So even a great growth story can be a terrible investment if you pay too much for it.
好，朋友们，我们来看看。Coreweave 目前股价在每股 63 美元左右。走势非常非常不稳定。今天下跌了 8%，我想指出的是，这只股票最初是在 7 月底触及 60 美元水平的，这也是我现在关注的位置，因为股价现在已经跌破了移动平均线。
它远低于移动平均线，位于布林带下方。我认为它现在所处的状态和 7 月底时一样，而这只股票在 7 月底又出现了一波大幅上涨。
Okay, friends, let's see. Coreweave is currently trading at around $63 per share. This is very, very unstable. It's down 8% today and what I want to point out is that this stock originally hit the $60 level in late July and that's where I'm looking at now because the stock is now below the moving average.
It is well below the moving average. It is located below the Bollinger Bands. I think at this point it's in the same state as it was in late July, and the stock saw a major upward move again in late July.
目前在我看来，整个股市正处于螺旋式下跌之中。市场存在波动，但说实话，我认为这不会持续太久。所以我认为 Coreweave 会回到移动平均线附近，也就是每股 80 美元或 80 多美元的中段，甚至可能高于 80 美元。
所以我把当前看作一个很大的机会，此时这只股票被严重低估了。
Right now, it seems to me that the entire stock market is in a downward spiral. There is volatility in the market, but honestly, I don't think it will last long. So I think Coreweave will return to near the moving average , meaning $80 per share or mid-$80s , or even above $80.
So I see the current time as a big opportunity where the stock is very undervalued.
这个频道对 $CRWV 的历次判断
Invest with Henry 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。