CRWV：15-16%的债券收益率显示其陷入困境，6.4亿美元利息吞噬了四分之一的营收，Bernstein因可能存在850亿美元资本需求而下调其评级；另一方面，营收增长112%至26亿美元、利润率59%，积压订单增长246%。他本人不持有该股，认为对其投资组合而言风险过高；分析师认为其上涨空间超过150%。
逐段跳播
好，这把我们带到了第三笔买入。这实际上是三笔操作中规模最大的一笔，就是CoreWave，一家专注于人工智能云的公司，股票代码是CRWV。这是Kathy最近重点押注的对象，仅在过去一个月里，她就通过旗下基金投入近4600万美元，买入了超过82.5万股。
Okay, this now leads us to the third purchase. This was actually the largest of the three operations, as we have CoreWave, a company specializing in artificial intelligence cloud, whose stock market symbol is CRWV.
This is something Kathy has focused on strongly recently, spending nearly $46 million through her funds to acquire more than 825,000 shares in the last month alone.
如果你最近一直在关注新闻头条，就会知道CoreWeave正是近期科技板块恐慌和抛售的震中，仅过去一个月就跌去了近40%的市值，较峰值更是跌去了一半以上。这与该公司去年首次公开募股后的强劲表现形成了鲜明对比。
Now, if you’ve been following the headlines lately, you know that CoreWeave has been point zero for the recent panic and sell-off in the tech sector, having lost nearly 40 % of its value in the last month alone, and more than half of its total value since its peak.
This is a stark contrast to the strong performance the company experienced after its initial public offering last year.
我们再一次面对AI股票的大幅抛售，而这与客户需求关系不大，主要与它们的资产负债表和债务市场有关。传统的云计算公司靠广告或软件业务赚取巨额利润来为数据中心提供资金，CoreWeave则不同，它是一家专业化的云运营商。
这意味着它在建设装满Nvidia图形处理器的高性能数据中心，然后把这种专用算力租给各类AI实验室和公司。
Well, once again , we are faced with a major sell-off of AI stocks that has little to do with customer demand, but rather primarily with their balance sheet and debt market. Unlike traditional cloud computing companies that have huge profits from advertising or software to fund their data centers, CoreWeave is a specialized cloud operator .
This means they are building high-performance data centers filled with Nvidia graphics processors, and then leasing that specialized computing power to various AI labs and companies.
为了快速建成这些产能——顺便说一句，这一点极其重要，因为你确实想尽可能快地抓住眼前看到的全部巨大需求。为此，也正因如此，他们不得不大量举债，累计达到其总债务中约500亿美元。
To build this capacity quickly, which is extremely important, by the way, because you really want to take advantage of all the huge demand you see right now as quickly as possible.
To do so, and as a result, they had to borrow heavily, which accumulated to about $50 billion of their total debt.
最近，CoreWeave债券在二级市场的收益率跃升至15%和16%。作为参照，当二级市场收益率升到这个水平时，华尔街就会开始把这些债务归类为“困境”债务。这意味着债券交易员担心CoreWeave将无力承担其融资成本。
Recently, CoreWeave bond yields in the secondary market jumped to 15 and 16%. To put that in context, when secondary yields rise to this level, Wall Street begins to classify those debts as " distressed".
This means that bond traders are concerned that CoreWeave will not be able to afford its financing costs.
例如，上个季度仅净利息支出就升至6.4亿美元，吃掉了其总收入的约四分之一。此后不久，Bernstein的分析师将该股下调至“表现不佳”，并警告称CoreWeave可能需要约850亿美元资本才能为其扩张提供充足资金。
In the last quarter, for example, net interest expenses alone rose to $640 million, eating up about a quarter of their total revenue. Shortly thereafter , analysts at Bernstein downgraded the stock to "underperforming," warning that CoreWeave might need around $85 billion in capital to fully fund its expansion .
所以，把运营业务所需的巨额资金、在当前高利率环境下所有这些借款带来的高利息成本，再加上对未来股票稀释的担忧放在一起，结果就是市场干脆诉诸恐慌性抛售这只股票，可以说就是为了摆脱整个局面。
So, if you combine the huge sums required to run their businesses with the high interest costs resulting from all this borrowing in the current high interest rate environment, add to that the concerns about future stock dilution.
The result is that the market simply resorted to panic selling the stock to get rid of the whole situation, so to speak.
但事情还有另一面，而且是非常重要的一面。Cathay Wood在这轮暴跌中大举买入的原因是：当华尔街在为债务恐慌时，对Coreweave计算平台的底层需求正在飙升。
But here's the other side of the coin, and it's a very important one. The reason behind Cathay Wood's heavy buying during this crash is that while Wall Street is panicking over debt, underlying demand for Coreweave's computing platform is skyrocketing.
例如，上个季度营收同比增长112%，达到26亿美元。与此同时，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润升至15亿美元，利润率为59%。事实上，如果不是最初建设这一切所需的巨额资本支出，这些业务从技术上讲本可以有非常高的利润率。
In the last quarter, for example, revenues rose 112% year-on-year, reaching $2.6 billion. Meanwhile, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose to $1.5 billion with a profit margin of 59%.
In fact, these operations could technically have very high profit margins were it not for the enormous capital expenditures required initially to build all of this.
事实上，根据Seeking Alpha，Coreweave股票从技术上看将以低于行业平均约30%的水平交易，按经营现金流计算也便宜约80%。
In fact, according to Seeking Alpha, Coreweave stock will technically trade at about 30% below the sector average, and about 80% cheaper in terms of operating cash flow as well.
但同样，原因在于销售额和经营现金流没有计入巨额资本支出。因此，即便我们想用净利润或自由现金流来给这只股票估值——在这种情况下，这对判断真实价值会更准确、更合适——我们也做不到，因为它们每年亏损数十亿美元。
But again, the reason for this is that sales and operating cash flow do not take into account huge capital expenditures. Therefore, even if we wanted to value this stock based on net income or free cash flow, which would be more accurate and appropriate in this case to determine the true value, we would not be able to do so because they are losing billions of dollars annually.
但这说明，如果没有那些巨额资本开支和沉重的前期投入，这项业务本应是高利润率的，并在这次暴跌后以大幅折价交易，我想这正是Cathy对这只股票的乐观看法。这大概就是她的主要论据。
But this illustrates that without those massive capital outlays and heavy initial spending, this business would have been high-margin and trading at a significant discount after this crash, which I assume is Cathy's optimistic view of the stock. This is probably her main argument for that.
顺便说一句，这完全不是什么离谱的论据。把巨大的需求和订单历史考虑进去，你会发现他们的积压订单增长了246%，达到1040亿美元，管理层指出这还不包括第三季度初另外250亿美元的新客户承诺。
And it's not a crazy argument at all, by the way. When you take into account the huge demand and order history , you'll find that they have backlogs that have increased by 246% to $104 billion, which management noted does not include another $25 billion of new customer commitments in early third quarter.
因此，我认为长期目标是完成这些数据中心的建设和全面运营，最终达到一个可以削减支出、并且足以运营这些大型中心并按需升级设备的阶段。
Therefore, I assume the long-term goal is to complete the construction and full operation of these data centers, eventually reaching a point where spending can be reduced and it is sufficient to operate these massive centers and upgrade their equipment as needed.
所以，拥有这种支持以及由此获得的提前获取Nvidia最佳产品的渠道，对他们来说也是一项显著优势。而且我觉得这帮助他们在自己所处的领域里稍微脱颖而出，而这个领域的竞争正变得越来越拥挤。
So, having this support and the ability to gain early access to Nvidia's best products thanks to it is also a significant advantage for them. And I feel it helps them to stand out a little bit, in a field that is becoming increasingly crowded with regard to what they do.
时间会证明这一切最终谁对谁错，是乐观者、悲观者，还是其他任何人。但就我个人而言，这不是我自己持有的股票，至少目前还不是。原因很简单，我已经持有大量AI数据中心类股票，在类似Korwef所做业务乃至与之平行的市场上都有很大的敞口。这已经有点超出我能承受的范围了。
Now, time will tell who will ultimately be right about all this, whether it's the optimists, the pessimists, or anyone else. But for me personally, it is not a stock that I own myself, at least not yet.
You know, the reason is simply that I already own a lot of AI data center stocks , and I have a lot of exposure to things similar to what Korwef is doing, and even to parallel markets to it . This is all a little more than I can bear.
我已经拥有自己那个规模大、盈利好且充分分散的股票组合，持有它我睡得很安稳；而如果是Korwef，我觉得持有它可能会让我有点紧张，但我并不是说它不值得押注。
I already own my large, profitable, and well-diversified stock portfolio, and I sleep soundly with it, while with Korwef, I think I might feel a little nervous owning it, but I'm not saying it's not worth betting on.
当然，对Cathay Wood来说，我认为这符合她的要求。她总是在寻找那些高风险、高科技的名字，也倾向于寻找正在下跌的股票并从中发掘价值。我觉得她实际上也是在寻找重大的长期复苏机会。
And certainly for Cathay Wood, I think it suits her requirements. She, you know, is always looking for those high-risk, high-tech names, and she tends to look for stocks that are falling in price and try to find value in that as well.
I think it's really looking for big long-term recovery opportunities as well.
再说一次，我不是在替她、替她的策略或类似的东西辩护。我只是说，我认为这才是她真正在寻找的东西。至于她，我认为这样的标的说得通。但对我个人而言，这只股票目前并不适合我的投资组合。
Again, I am not defending her, her strategies, or anything like that . I'm just saying that this is what I think she's really looking for . As for her, I think a name like that makes sense.
But for me personally, it is not the stock that suits my investment portfolio at the moment .
但等等，郑重说明一下，覆盖该股的41位分析师中，他们仍然预计它会较当前水平上涨超过150%。
But wait, for the record, out of 41 analysts covering the stock, they still expect it to rise by more than 150% from current levels.