$CRWV · David Lin · 2026-10-26
CoreWeave 的债券收益率为 15% 至 16%，而投资资本回报率低于 10%，其股价在 10 月下跌了 40%；其收益率比 triple C 曲线高出近 500 个基点，因此市场专门针对 CoreWeave 定价了更高的违约风险。说话者称其正走向违约，并存在危险的融资反馈循环，但并未声称其面临违约风险，并表示它可以恢复，可能通过公开市场之外的融资或来自更大型超大规模厂商的资金。
逐段跳播
CoreWeave 一直频频出现在新闻里，因为它们有融资问题。它们的一些债务，一些债券的收益率现在已经达到15%以上，甚至16%，而它们的投入资本回报率仍低于10%，而且它们的股价仅10月就下跌了40%。
CoreWeave has been all over the news because uh they have financing problems. Some of their debt uh some some of some of their bonds have now reached yields of above 15 to even 16% while their return on invested capital remains below 10% and their stock's down 40% just in October.
所以，如果拿像 CoreWeave 这样的公司为例，它们的债券收益率在15%交易，那已经是类似股权的回报了，而作为投资者你必须想，如果你拿到的是类似股权的回报，你承担的就是类似股权的风险。
So if you have a company like CoreWeave as an example where their bond yields are trading at 15%, well that's equity like returns and as investors you have to think if you're getting equity like returns you're taking equity like risk.
所以我实际上把 CoreWeave 的收益率与 B+ 曲线做了对比，那是它当时的评级所在，还有单 B、B- 和 CCC 曲线。而它的收益率比 CCC 曲线还高出近500个基点。
所以市场正在为 CoreWeave 尤其更高的违约风险定价。
And so I actually charted out um uh CoreWeave's yields compared to um the the the B+ curve which that's where it was currently rated, the the single B, B- and triple C. And its yield was, you know, almost 500 basis points above even the triple C curve.
So the market's pricing in for a higher risk of default specifically with CoreWeave.
而就 CoreWeave 而言，它正在一步步走向违约。我的意思是，它们现在能用什么救命稻草来避免违约吗？因为如果它们不断融资来偿还债务，随着信用评分下降，或者说信用资质下降，它们的收益率还会变得更高。而这会形成一个危险的反馈循环。
And in the case of Coreweave, it's marching towards default. I mean any any lifeline they could use to avoid defaults at this point? Cuz if they keep financing to pay off their debt, their yields are going to get even higher as their credit scores go down or their creditworthiness goes down, rather. And that creates a dangerous feedback loop.
对，没错。而唯一的出路就是挺过去，就像我们被教导的那样。所以，如果它们能从一些更大的超大规模云厂商那里获得资金，那可能会帮到它们。我不是说 CoreWeave 面临违约风险。我只是说，这就是它们债务目前的交易水平。
所以，它们当然有能力恢复，但正如你所说，那大概率要通过公开市场以外的融资来实现，因为公开市场给它们的债务定价就是那个15%。因此，它们将不得不在公开市场之外寻求资金。
Yeah, that's right. And and the only way out is through, you know, as as you know, as as we're taught. And so, if if they can get funding from some of these larger hyperscalers, that may help them.
And and and I'm not saying that Coreweave is at a risk of default. I'm I'm just saying that that's where their debt is currently trading. And so, certainly they have the ability to recover, but to your point, it's going to be through financing probably outside of the public markets because the public markets are pricing their debt at that 15%.
And so, they'll have to seek funding outside of that.
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