$CRWV · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-27
CRWV 获买入评级；若今天做选择，说话者更偏好它而非 Nebius。他认为从 55 美元到 83.50 美元的公允价值约有 52% 上行空间。其 DCF 低估程度与 Nebius 相近，但 1.1 倍的远期倍数对比 Nebius 的 3.5 倍，使其明显更便宜，这很可能源于更重的资产负债表压力——更多债务、更少现金。风险包括借款 510 亿美元、现金及短期投资仅 64 亿美元而支出计划庞大、2029-2032 年可能出现供过于求；需要较高的风险承受能力。
逐段跳播
Coreweave和Nebius等新兴云计算公司的股价正在下跌，原因是投资者对其资产负债表以及该行业长期单位经济性的担忧日益加剧。
Shares of emerging cloud computing companies such as Coreweave and Nebius are declining as a result of growing investor concerns about their balance sheets and the sector's long-term unit economics.
所以，投资者在问我这些公司到底怎么了，以及实际上我认为哪一家更值得买入，是Nebius还是Coreweave？
So, investors are asking me what's going on with these companies , and in fact, which one I consider a better buy, Nebius or Coreweave?
最让投资者对Coreweave和Nebius感到兴奋的，是巨大的营收增长，或者更确切地说，是预计未来将继续保持的巨大增长。
What most excited investors about Coreweave and Nebius was the tremendous revenue growth, or rather, the tremendous growth that is expected to continue in the future.
回顾过去12个月，Coreweave实现了76亿美元营收，高于2025年约15亿美元的水平。事实上，如果我们看看跟踪Coreweave和Nebius Group的华尔街分析师的预测，他们预计这种强劲的营收增长将会持续。
Looking at the past 12 months, Coreweave generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up from about $1.5 billion in 2025. In fact, if we look at the estimates of Wall Street analysts who follow Coreweave and Nebius Group, they expect this strong revenue growth to continue.
预计Coreweave在2026年将实现130亿美元营收，而这一数字预计到2028财年将增长两到三倍，达到430亿美元。
Coreweave is projected to generate $13 billion in revenue in 2026, with that figure expected to triple or quadruple to $43 billion by fiscal year 2028.
但投资者的担忧正是从这里开始的。诚然，需求超过供给，而且这种情况很可能在2027年和2028年持续。但2029年、2030年、2031年和2032年会发生什么？该行业会出现供过于求吗？
尤其是考虑到从现在到2029年，建设这些产品和数据中心的成本估计高达数万亿美元，届时会出现供过于求吗？担忧正是从这里开始升级的。
But this is where investors' concerns begin. Certainly , demand exceeds supply, and this is likely to remain the case for 2027 and 2028 . But what will happen in the years 2029, 2030, 2031 and 2032 ?
Will the sector experience an oversupply? Will there be an oversupply, especially given that the costs of building these products and data centers are estimated at trillions of dollars between now and 2029? This is where concerns begin to escalate.
风险之所以叠加，是因为这些公司正在大量举债，以支持它们建设这些数据中心的投资。如果它想实现预期的营收增长，就需要建设这些数据中心。
The risks are compounded because these companies are borrowing heavily to support their investments in building these data centers . It needs to build these data centers if it wants to achieve the revenue growth that it is projected to achieve.
它们来自客户的订单簿不断增长，价值数十亿美元，但除非建设更多数据中心，否则它们没有能力满足这一需求。因此，它们要确保获得更多的算力供应，以便出租给客户。确实，它们的资产负债表开始变得越来越紧张。
They have a growing order book from customers worth billions of dollars, but they do not have the capacity to meet this demand unless they build more data centers. Thus, they secure a greater supply of that computing power to rent to their clients.
Indeed, their balance sheets began to become increasingly constrained.
具体来说，Coreweave借了510亿美元，这意味着其资产负债表上有超过510亿美元。
Specifically, Coreweave borrowed fifty-one billion dollars, meaning it has more than 51 billion dollars on its balance sheet.
因此，同样重要的是要考虑它们预算中有多少现金和短期投资，以判断它们在不回头向投资者要更多钱的情况下还能撑多久。答案是，与它们的支出计划相比，并不多。
Therefore, it is also important to consider how much cash and short- term investments they have in the budget to see how long they can continue without going back to investors and asking for more money.
The answer is not much compared to their spending plans.
与此同时，Coreweave的现金和短期投资略高于64亿美元。按远期市盈率衡量，Coreweave的股价只有Nebius Group价格的一小部分。
Meanwhile, Coreweave has just over $6.4 billion in cash and short- term investments. Coreweave shares are trading at a fraction of the price of the Nebius Group when measured by the price-to- forward ratio.
Nebius Group的远期市盈率为3.5，而Coreweave的远期市盈率为1.1，这很可能是因为Coreweave的资产负债表承受的压力比Nebius Group更大。我们已经看到，Coreweave债务更多、现金更少，而这目前是投资者最大的担忧，所以这很可能是Coreweave与Nebius Group之间估值差异的主要因素。
The Nebius Group is trading at a forward price of 3.5, while Coreweave is trading at a forward price of 1.1, likely because Coreweave's balance sheet is under greater pressure than the Nebius Group's.
We have seen that Coreweave has more debt and less cash, and this is currently the biggest concern for investors, so this is likely to be a major factor in the valuation difference between Coreweave and the Nebius Group.
经过计算，我认为Coreweave有约52%的上行空间，公允价值估计为83.50美元，而当前市场价格为55美元。
After calculation, I see an upside potential of approximately 52% for Coreweave, with a fair value estimate of $83.50, while the current market price is $55.
因此，就折现现金流估值而言，两者非常相似。按当前市场价格，两者都被非常相似地低估了。然而，如果用市场倍数和远期市盈率来衡量，Coreweave似乎被显著低估，其估值只有Nebius Group的一小部分。
Therefore, with regard to the evaluation of discounted cash flow, the two are very similar. Both are very similarly undervalued at current market prices . However, when measured using a market multiples basis and a price-to- forward ratio, Coreweave appears to be significantly undervalued , at a fraction of the valuation of the Nebius Group.
要回答在当前市场价格下我认为哪一个是更好的买入选择，这两者非常相似。这不是一个容易的决定。我把两者都评为买入机会。
To answer the question of which I consider the better purchase at current market prices, the two are very similar. It's not an easy decision. Both are rated by me as a buying opportunity.
10月28日，或者其实是10月23日，我也把 Nepais Group 的股票上调至“买入”，而我在几周前已将 Korwef 评为“买入”。
On October 28, or actually on October 23, I upgraded Nepais Group's stock to " buy" as well, and I had rated Korwef as a " buy" several weeks ago.
因此，做出这个决定很困难，这是一次接近的评估。但如果今天必须选一个，我会选 Koroyev。我想提醒大家，这些股票只应由风险承受能力高的投资者考虑，因为它们属于你能买到的高风险投资之列。
Therefore, making this decision is difficult, and it is a close assessment. But if I had to choose today, I would choose Koroyev. I would like to remind everyone that these stocks should only be considered by investors with a high tolerance for risk, as they are among the riskiest investments you can buy.
这个频道对 $CRWV 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。