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$CVS

$CVS · Schwab Network · 2026-11-04

AI 摘要 · Schwab Network

CVS的分拆(不早于2028年)并不能证明其整合战略失败:零售药房已提升份额并恢复健康增长,此举是对PBM透明度要求和田纳西州所有权规则的回应。但12%的跌幅反映的是分部加总估值逻辑——零售同行估值为7至8倍EBITDA,而保险公司为11.5至12.5倍——以及新增的双重上市成本;独立估值是关键。除非国会采取行动,垂直整合很可能继续。

他说的是几年内
《CVS Dismantling Healthcare Empire: Regulatory Tailwinds v. Cost Headwinds》
Schwab Network发布 2026-11-04 · 9 段内容
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9 段内容
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CVS花了多年时间打造出这个综合医疗保健巨头,结果现在在战略评估中却说:“我们要拆分成两家上市公司。”这是否等于承认它没有像他们期望的那样成功,管理层也没有实现外界对它的预期?

I mean, CVS spent years building this integrated healthcare giant , only to come along now as part of its strategic evaluation and say, "We're going to split into two publicly traded companies ."

Is this an admission that it did not succeed as they wanted, and that the administration did not achieve what was expected of it ?

如果认真想一想CVS与Aetna、Caremark(一家药品福利管理公司)以及零售业务等公司的结合,它实际上确实推动了增长,并改善了它们管理患者的方式。因此,我会说这一战略确实是成功的。

简单来说,新的规则已经出台。药品福利管理领域的透明度很快就会开始显现。田纳西州还通过了一项法律,禁止药品福利管理公司拥有零售药房。因此,我认为这是一种调整战略、在田纳西州这项法律被许多其他州效仿之前先做出改变的方式。

If you really think about what CVS has combined with companies like Aetna, Caremark (a pharmacy benefits management company), and retail , it has actually worked to drive growth and improve the way they manage patients.

Therefore, I would say that the strategy was indeed successful . Simply put, new rules have been issued. Transparency in the pharmaceutical benefits management sector will soon begin to emerge.

There is also a law passed in Tennessee that prohibits pharmacy benefit management companies from owning retail pharmacies. Therefore, I believe this is a way to adjust the strategy and modify the work before this Tennessee law is copied in many other states.

Brian,这次公告确实让投资者感到意外。我看到CVS股价现在下跌了12.25%。这种快速下跌背后的原因是什么?仅仅是因为意外因素,市场不喜欢意外吗?是对拆分的不确定性,还是表明投资者不相信这真的能释放价值?

Well, Brian, I mean the announcement definitely surprised investors. I see a 12.25 percent drop now in the CVS stock price . What is the reason behind this rapid move towards decline?

Is it simply the element of surprise, and that the market doesn't like surprises? Is it uncertainty about the split, or does it indicate that investors are not convinced that this will actually unlock value?

是的,Marley,我认为原因是人们正在做分部估值计算,对吧?如果你给零售药房一个估值和倍数,看看之前上市的零售药房,比如Walgreens或Rite Aid,这些股票的市盈率(按息税折旧摊销前利润计)在7到8倍。

再看保险公司,比如UnitedHealth、Elevance或Cigna,你会发现它们的市盈率(按息税折旧摊销前利润计)大约在11.5到12.5倍。当你做分部估值时,本质上发生的情况是,CVS内部的零售药房受益于高增长和更高的保险相关倍数。

所以,当你拆分这家公司时,首先会遇到一些协同冲突,对吧?你现在必须承担双方的支出,因为它们都是上市公司,这是第一点。唯一的区别在于增长率以及由此带来的复杂问题。所以,我认为这就是今天股票、或者说股价中所计入的预期。

Yes, I think the reason, Marley, is that people are doing calculations to evaluate the sum of the parts, isn't that right ? If you put a valuation and multiple for retail pharmacies, and when you look at previously listed retail pharmacies such as Walgreens or Rite Aid, those stocks have traded at 7 to 8 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization .

When you look at insurance companies, such as UnitedHealth, Elevance, or Cigna, you find that they trade at around 11.5 to 12.5 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

When you evaluate the sum of the parts, what was essentially happening was that the retail pharmacies within CVS were benefiting from the high growth and higher insurance-related multiples.

So, when you split this company, firstly, you will face a bit of synergistic conflict, won't you? You now have to bear expenses from both sides since they are both publicly listed companies , that's the first thing.

The only difference is in the growth rates and the resulting complications . So, I think this is what is priced in stocks today, or in a share.

那么,Brian,你对可能独立出来的这两家公司有什么看法?我是说,他们说不会早于2028年。所以,现在还比较遥远,但让我们先看看你刚才谈到的零售药房业务。他们经营着大约9,000家药房。

我认为他们在2025年实现了略低于380亿美元的销售额。他们还在从竞争对手那里夺取市场份额。在我们对话之前,我看了一些数据。从你的角度看,CVS药房业务作为独立实体有多大吸引力?

So, Brian, what are your thoughts on the two companies that might become independent? I mean, they're saying not before 2028. So, we're still a bit far off, but let's first look at the retail pharmacy business since you were just talking about it.

They operate around 9,000 pharmacies. I think they achieved slightly less than $38 billion in sales in 2025. They are also gaining market share from competitors. I was looking at some data before our conversation.

From your point of view, how attractive is CVS Pharmacy's business as an independent entity?

Marley,有意思的是,他们的药房业务做得非常好。所以,他们正在夺取市场份额,其中一部分原因是Rite Aid的关闭,对吧?然后Walgreens开始合并其门店。因此,有市场份额可以争取,CVS通过提高市场份额在推动增长方面取得了巨大成功。

所以,这是第一点。也许只是为了体会一下这一点,对吧?三年前,他们对零售药房的预测显示营业利润将下降约5%。而现在,三年后,我们开始看到正增长,或者如你所知,我们已经看到零售药房实现了健康的增长。

所以,我认为他们成功地扭转了这项业务的走势。我认为消费者无疑是一个压力点,就消费者支出而言,但他们在应对这一冲击方面做得很好。我认为,在门店重新设计、品牌和营销方面的执行做得非常好。

所以,我非常期待它上市,但我认为真正的问题是,一家只做零售药房的细分业务,合适的估值应该是多少。

You know, Marley, what's interesting is that their pharmacy business has done really well . So, they are gaining market share and some of that is due to the closure of Rite Aid , right?

Then Walgreens began merging its stores. Therefore, there was a market share available to capture, and CVS achieved great success in driving growth by increasing its market share.

So, that's the first thing. Perhaps just to appreciate some of this, isn't it? Three years ago, their projections for retail pharmacies indicated a decline in operating income of approximately 5%.

And now, three years later, we are beginning to see positive growth, or as you know, we have seen healthy growth in retail pharmacies. So, I think they succeeded in changing the course of that business.

I think the consumer was undoubtedly a point of pressure in terms of consumer spending, but they did a good job of weathering that storm. I think the execution, in terms of store redesign, branding, and marketing, has done a really good job .

So, I'm very excited to see it go public, but I think the real question is what is the appropriate valuation for a niche retail pharmacy only.

Brian,你提到了一些监管问题,各州在推动限制药品福利管理公司(PBM)拥有药房。嗯,把这两项业务分开似乎合乎逻辑,但我们是否可能看到其他综合医疗保健公司也采取类似步骤?鉴于CVS的举措,你预计医疗保健行业会出现更广泛的重组吗?

我们现在是否有了一个关于未来可能是什么样子的模型或案例研究?

Brian, you've highlighted some regulatory issues, with states pushing for restrictions on pharmacy benefit managers ( PBMs) owning pharmacies. Well, separating the two activities seems logical, but are there other integrated healthcare companies that we might see taking similar steps now?

Do you expect to see a wider restructuring in the healthcare sector given what CVS has done, and do we now have a model or case study of what the future might look like ?

我们看到的情况,尤其是你提到的田纳西州法律,是独立药房正在游说他们的州代表和参议员,说:“我们正在把市场份额输给这些大型药房,我们需要保护。”所以,我认为这是一些州议员处理这个问题的方式之一。

当时有人担心其他州会效仿田纳西州。这件事始于阿肯色州,然后田纳西州照搬了,随着时间的推移,阻止这一趋势的势头在增强。但CVS是独一无二的,对吧?我是说,他们是唯一拥有零售药房的。

所以,我会说也许现在还不完全是。目前,我认为药品福利管理公司、管理式医疗甚至诊所之间的这种垂直整合是正确的?我是说,CVS拥有Oak Street Health,这是一家诊所运营商。

我相信这一战略至少在未来几年会继续下去,除非我们看到国会采取真正的政府行动来拆分这些实体。

What we are seeing, especially with the Tennessee law you mentioned , is that independent pharmacies are lobbying their state representatives and senators, saying, "We are losing our market share to these large pharmacies and we need protection."

So, I think this was one of the ways some state legislators dealt with this issue. There was concern that other states would follow Tennessee's example . It started in Arkansas, then Tennessee copied it, and over time there is growing momentum to thwart this trend.

But CVS is unique, isn't it? I mean, they're the only ones who own a retail pharmacy. So, I would say maybe not quite right now . Currently, I believe this vertical integration between pharmacy benefits manager, managed care, and even clinics is correct?

I mean, CVS owns Oak Street Health, which is a clinic operator. I believe this strategy will continue for at least the next few years unless we see real government action from Congress to break up these entities.

好。我们看到CVS股价下跌超过12%。业务拆分的公告实际上盖过了强劲的第三季度财报。他们上调了预期,保险业务的盈利能力也大幅改善。

Good. We are seeing a decline of more than 12 percent in CVS shares. The announcement of the business split effectively overshadows the strong third-quarter report. They raised their expectations, and they also saw a sharp improvement in their insurance profitability .

观察点

国会采取实际的政府行动来拆分这些实体
国会采取实际行动拆分这些实体
未来几年国会
削弱垂直整合将持续下去的观点
跨洋听风