Delta 基本面相对同业强劲，但技术面显示支撑已破、动能减弱，暗示股价将在当前水平附近盘整。
逐段跳播
Delta 这一年表现强劲，同比增幅超过 40%。这是一张三年期的周线图，某种程度上反映了我们从 Delta 和 United Airlines 等主要航空公司身上看到的情况。
我的意思是，仅仅三年前，该股还不到 40 美元。因此，股价已经翻了一倍多。该股目前交易在 82 美元左右，但已从我们看到的那些历史高点回落。
Well, Delta had a strong year, with a year-on-year increase of over 40%. A three-year weekly chart, which somewhat reflects what we have seen from major airlines, such as Delta and United Airlines.
I mean, the stock was less than $40 just 3 years ago . Therefore, the price has more than doubled. The stock is currently trading around $82, but it has retreated from those record highs we saw.
Delta 在高端座位、商务出行和国际出行方面处于领先地位。它们是四大航空公司中规模最大的一家，这四家分别是 United、Delta、American Airlines 和 Southwest。
Delta leads in premium seats, business travel, and international travel. They are the biggest player among the Big Four airlines, which are United, Delta, American Airlines and Southwest.
但如果你看看 Delta Air Lines，你会发现它在这一领域跑赢 United、American 和 Southwest，这并不令人意外。它们的利润率更高。它们的债务少于该板块的其他参与者。
所以，是的，在这次财报事件之前，我们在 Delta 身上看到的这三年非常强劲。
But if you look at Delta Air Lines, you'll find that it outperforms United, American and Southwest in this area, which is not surprising. They have better profit margins. They have less debt than other players in the sector .
So, yes, it's been a very strong 3 years that we've seen at Delta prior to this earnings event.
现在，如果我们缩小时间范围，看一年期的一日走势图，我们会发现该股上涨了约 20%。我们今天在这里略有回撤，但这并不令人意外，对吧？
Now, if we narrow down the time frame and look at a one-day chart for one year, we find that the stock has risen by about 20%. We're taking a bit of a step back here today, but that's not surprising, is it?
上一季度其营收同比增长 17%。高端收入同比增长 20%，而利润率最高的部分出现在国际出行、商务出行和高端座位。
Its revenues grew by 17% year-on-year in the last quarter . Premium revenues increased by 20% year-on-year , and the highest profit margins are found in international travel, business travel, and premium seats.
它们不增加额外运力。这一点始终很重要，随着这次财报事件的临近，也将是值得关注的事情。但你可以从这里看到，50 日简单移动均线在过去几个月里基本上起到了支撑作用，但我们已经跌破了这些水平。
我们现在处于这些水平附近的盘整阶段，这并不令人意外。
They do not add extra capacity. This is always important and will be something worth watching as this earnings event approaches. But you can see here from the 50-day simple moving average that it has essentially acted as support over the past several months, but we have broken through those levels.
We are now in a consolidation phase near those levels, and this is not surprising.
至于动能，我们在 9 月看到了一些早期动能，而它在这里已经开始消退。相对强弱指数在 50 左右，我们会继续监测，但也会留意 50 日简单移动均线。看起来我们正处于一个蓄势阶段，或许我们会在这里找到一个底部。
As for momentum, we saw some early momentum during September that has started to fade here . The Relative Strength Index is around 50, which we will continue to monitor , but also keep an eye on the 50-day Simple Moving Average.
It seems we are in a phase of gathering and perhaps we will find a base there.
是的，我必须说，应对这些高油价的能力让我印象深刻，
Yes, I must say I was impressed by the ability to handle these high oil prices,
这份报告之前，隐含波动率水平相对较高，这并不令人意外，对吧？我们可能会看到该股出现大幅波动。如果你看期权市场，它定价的是每日任一方向大约正负 4.3% 的波动，对吧？大约是上下各 3.60 美元。
Well, implied volatility levels were relatively high before this report, which is not surprising, is it? We could see a significant movement in the stock. If you look at the options market , it prices a move of approximately plus or minus 4.3% in either direction on a daily basis, right? It's about $3.60 either way.
因此，我想在这笔测试交易中利用较高的隐含波动率。这是一个中性策略。你不必选择特定方向。你只是希望该股继续在当前每股约 82 美元的水平附近或该水平盘整。
Therefore, I wanted to take advantage of the higher implied volatility in this test trade. This is a neutral strategy. You don't have to choose a specific direction. You are just hoping that the stock will continue to consolidate at or near these current levels of around $82 per share.
因此，我考虑卖出一种做空的“铁鹰”策略。它有时也被称为做空的“铁蝴蝶”，因为我在这里以相同的行权价卖出买入期权和卖出期权。我选择了 10 月 9 日的周度期权，所以在这笔演示交易中它们确实是短期头寸。
距离其到期日只剩一天。我将以 82 的行权价卖出一份看涨期权，并以 82 的行权价卖出一份看跌期权。所以，你在这里卖出的是一个“跨式”组合。为了抵消成本并限制风险，我们将买入“宽跨式”。
我们将买入一份行权价为 78 的看跌期权以防下跌，并买入一份行权价为 86 的看涨期权以防上涨。所以，本质上，你是在与共同的做空行权价相同的价位上，创建了一个做空的“垂直看涨”和一个做空的“垂直看跌”。
你将收到大约 3 美元的净权利金。这就是你可能赚到的，每个价差 300 美元，风险约为 100 美元，但这发生在 86 水平之上或 78 水平之下。你想看到的是这里出现一些盘整，即该股在 79 和 85 的盈亏平衡点之间开盘，然后你以更低的价格买回，因为波动率将会回落。所以，这里是一个中性策略。
Therefore, I considered selling a short “Iron Condor” strategy. It is sometimes referred to as the short "Iron Butterfly" because I sell the buy and sell option at the same strike price here.
I went for the weekly October 9 option , so they are really short-term positions in this demo trade. Only one day remains until its expiry date. Where I will sell a call option at an execution price of 82 and a put option at an execution price of 82.
So, you are selling a "straddle" here. To offset the cost and limit the risks, we will purchase "Strangle". We will buy a put option with an execution price of 78 for going down, and we will buy a call option with an execution price of 86 for going up.
So, in essence, you are creating a short "vertical call" and a short "vertical put" at the same price as the shared short execution. You will receive a credit of approximately $3.
This is what you could potentially earn, $300 per price difference with a risk of about $100, but this is above the 86 level or below the 78 level. What you want to see is some consolidation here where the stock opens between the breakeven points of 79 and 85, then you buy it back at a lower price because the volatility will break down. So, a neutral strategy here.
这个频道对 $DAL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。