$DELL · Everything Money · 2026-10-31
戴尔的资本回报强劲，去年营收增长，利润率从3%提升到5%再到7.5%，并可能因软件业务带动利润率进一步上升；但这些优势被以下因素抵消：毛利率仅20%，而Google为60%、Meta为80%；在100亿美元自由现金流之上背负1150亿美元债务；以及AI支出风险。按33倍自由现金流计算，他给出的322美元平均价值仅意味着4.25%的回报，因此戴尔对他而言可能并不划算。
逐段跳播
接下来，我们将用三家股价已经下跌的大公司来真正检验“逢低买入”策略。Google、Meta和Dell。
Then we will put the “buy the dip” strategy to a real test with three big names whose shares have declined. Google, Meta, and Dell.
那么，我们现在就来实践一下。我们拿这三家因人工智能支出不断累积而股价下跌的公司——Google、Meta和Dell——来发现它们的真实价值。
So, let's put that into practice now. Let's take these three companies that have declined as spending on artificial intelligence has piled up – Google, Meta, and Dell – and discover their true value.
现在，第三只股票，Dell Inc.。各位，我们来看看对Dell的涨跌预测。在等待结果的同时，我们先回顾一些数字。这是一家市值3200亿美元的公司。各位，这家公司的机构价值是4370亿美元。
这1150亿美元是它们的债务。这是一笔很大的债务。当你去年的自由现金流是100亿美元时，你看到的是去年自由现金流的11.5倍。这非常高。
Now, stock number three , Dell Inc. Guys, let's look at the up and down predictions for Dell. While we wait for that, let's review some numbers. A company with a market value of $320 billion.
Now, folks, this company has an institutional value of $437 billion. This $115 billion is their debt. This is a large amount of debt. When your free cash flow for last year was $10 billion, you are looking at 11.5 times last year's free cash flow. This is extremely high.
不过，接下来是巨大的资本回报率。这很棒。显著的营收增长率。这很棒。它们的利润率。看看这个。10年利润率3%。5年利润率5%。一年的利润率是7.5%。所以，这些数字并不大，但它们在增长，这一点很重要，要记住。它的售价是自由现金流的33倍、盈利的28倍。
Next, huge returns on capital, though. This is wonderful. Significant revenue growth rate. This is wonderful. Their profit margin. Look at this. Profit margin for 10 years, 3%.
Profit margin for 5 years, 5%. One year's profit margin is 7.5 %. So, they are not large numbers, but they are growing , and that is an important thing to remember. It is sold at a price of 33 times free cash flow and 28 times earnings .
现在，我们来回顾一下我们对涨跌的预测。在第一个上涨情景中，对AI服务器的需求转化为公司更大的订单和更高的指引。第二，增长似乎超出了人工智能服务器的范围。这很棒。各位，它们做服务器业务已经很久了，而且长期以来一直占据主导地位。
第三，Dell正在打造企业级AI产品，而不只是卖硬件。所以，硬件很好，但当你提供软件时，业务的利润率会高得多。当我们谈到改善这里偏低的利润率时，那将大大提升它们的净利润率。
Now, let's review our predictions for the rise and fall. In the first upward scenario, the demand for AI servers translates into larger orders and higher directives for the company.
Number two, it appears that growth extends beyond artificial intelligence servers. This is the great thing. Guys, they've been in the server business for a very long time, and they've been dominant for a very long time .
Number three, Dell is building an enterprise AI offering, not just selling hardware. So, the hardware is great, but when you provide the software, the business has a much higher profit margin.
When we talk about improving the low margins here, that will be a big boost to their net profit margin.
下跌的条件是什么？增长预测容易受到AI基础设施支出的影响。所以，各位，我们一直这么说。如果人工智能基础设施的支出突然停止，会发生什么？就像当年他们在世界各地铺设光纤电缆，然后突然完全放缓一样，那是个问题。
What are the conditions of descent? Growth forecasts are vulnerable to AI infrastructure spending. So, guys, we've always said this. If spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure suddenly stops , what will happen?
Just like when they were laying fiber optic cables around the world and suddenly it slowed down completely, that was a problem.
第二，快速的销售增长本身并不能证明这是一门有吸引力且可持续的经济生意。没错，因为再说一次，我们的毛利率只有20%。记住，Google是60%，Meta是80%。这里是20%。这不算多。这令人担忧。
Number two, rapid sales growth does not in itself prove to be an attractive and sustainable economic. That's right , because again, we only have a gross profit margin of 20%. Remember, Google was 60% and Meta was 80%.
Here the percentage is 20%. That's not much. This is worrying.
第三，现有证据使执行和供应链方面的风险敞口仍未解决。Dell的增长取决于交付围绕复杂组件构建的复杂系统。你把它做得越复杂，就越可能出现问题。
And three, the available evidence leaves the exposure to implementation and the supply chain unresolved. Dell's growth depends on delivering complex systems built around sophisticated components.
The more complex you make it, the more likely problems are to occur.
好，各位，我们来看看这八大支柱。它们在回购股票。这意味着它们认为股价便宜。资本回报巨大，净利润很高，营收在增长。各位，它们的现金流偏低，但这可能是由于人工智能方面的支出，所以我不担心这一点。
Okay, guys, let's take a look at the eight pillars. Well, they are buying back the shares. This means they believe the stock is cheap. Capital returns are huge, net income is high, and revenues are increasing.
Guys, their cash flow is low, but that could be due to spending on artificial intelligence, so I'm not worried about that.
我之前说的那个宗教，这才是这里的大数字，各位。这和Oracle的情况类似，只是更糟，但这个债务数字真的让我担心。当然，按盈利的60倍和五年的现金流来估值是一项艰巨的任务。但我想提醒大家，它们的利润在持续改善，从过去十年的3%到过去五年的5%，再到去年的7.5%。
That religion I was talking about, that's the big number here, guys. It's similar to Oracle's situation, only worse, but this debt figure really worries me. Of course, evaluating 60 times earnings and cash flows for five years is a difficult task.
But I want to remind everyone that their profits are constantly improving, from 3 % over the past ten years to 5% for the past five years and 7.5% last year.
那么，我们来看看分析师怎么想。哦，没有我想的那么有吸引力。18.85上升到23，但看看这个。每股18.85这个数字比去年增长了90%。但随后有一位分析师预测最后一年会大幅下降。
营收也是如此。173、200、218，然后降到192。这仍然是增长。所以，这就是让人困惑的地方，因为我们已经到了这一步。
So , let's see what the analysts think. Oh, not as attractive as I thought. 18.85 rises to 23, but look at this. This figure of 18.85 per share represents a 90% increase over last year.
But then there is a significant drop predicted by one analyst in the final year. And the same applies to revenues . 173, 200, 218, then it drops to 192. It is still a gain. So, this is where things get confusing because we've reached this point.
我们需要把它放进我们的股票分析工具里，而有些分析师说：“啊，我们在这里看不到多少增长。所以，我们往后需要稍微保守一点。”所以，各位，我给出的营收增长率是4%、6%和8%。我把利润率设为3%、5%和7%。
实际上我要改一下这个。我会给它们一点善意。我会用4%、6.5%和9%。
We need to put it into our stock analysis tool, and we have some analysts who are saying, "Ah, we don't see much growth here. So, we need to be a little conservative going forward."
So, guys, I put out revenue growth of 4, 6, and 8 percent. I set 3, 5 and 7 for the profit margin. I will actually change this. I will give them a little bit of good faith. I would go with 4, 6.5 and 9.
现在，我不知道这是对还是错，但当我看到利润率在上升，而且它们又加上了软件，我认为软件是一门利润率非常高的生意。这很容易超过这些数字。如果有人填4%、8%和12%，或者类似这样的数字，我能理解。
那不会让我怀疑：“你在干什么？”这有可能吗？我不知道，但它正朝那个方向发展。
Now, I don't know if that's right or wrong, but when I see an increasing profit margin, and they add software to it, I think that software is a very high-margin business. This could easily exceed these figures.
I would understand if someone put 4, 8 and 12, or something like that. That won't make me wonder, "What are you doing?" Is this possible? I do n't know, but it's heading in that direction.
接下来，我在这里要填的市盈率（P/E）是多少？各位，这些资本回报率非常棒，而且还在变好。但这就是我对这家公司的顾虑所在。那个宗教。那个宗教真的让我不安。我还是给它们加分，最高16、22，中间19，但我对此有点忐忑。
各位，在这件事上我想要更大的安全边际。正如我说的，出于视频和教学目的，我填了9.5%。
Next, what is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio that I will put here? Now, folks, these returns on capital are fantastic and getting better. But here lies my problem with the company.
That religion. That religion really bothers me. I still give them a bonus, 16, 22 at the top, and 19 in the middle, but I feel a bit apprehensive about it. Guys, I want a bigger safety margin in this job.
I put in 9.5 percent as I said, for video and educational purposes.
点击分析按钮。那么，各位，我的低价是150，高价是575，平均价是322，按照我的平均假设，这显示出4.25%的回报。所以，考虑到债务以及价格与价值的关系，这对我来说可能说不通，但你可能会有不同的想法。
Click the analyze button. So, guys, I have a low price of 150, a high price of 575, and an average price of 322, which shows a return of 4.25% based on my average assumption. So, with debt and price versus value, it probably doesn't make sense to me, but you might have something different to think about.