由于高负债和严重稀释,DFDV 是一项高风险投资,更倾向于直接持有 Solana 敞口。
逐段跳播
你认为 D5 Development 是押注 Saul 代理标的、并在我的英国 ISA 里获得 Saul 敞口的最佳选择吗?他没提到这是不是 LEAP。所以,我们会讨论所有这些问题。
这里有很多要拆解的内容。如果你择时得当,加密代理标的可以很棒。好。首先,Hodddle 模型又回来了。这是 D5 Development Corporation 的 NAV 溢价,为0.51。
纸面上看很棒。那基本上意味着你在以半价买入 Salana。但有个转折。事实上,有好几个转折。首先,他们背负了大量债务。好,几乎一半的市值都是债务。1.25亿到1.3亿。很重要。
永远要看财务报表。另外,当你查看这些数字时,股价较历史高点下跌了89%。他们有256万卖出,就是你在 Hodddle 模型上看到的那个。负债1.26亿,优先股设定价值1600万。这是第一点。
Do you consider D5 development the best choice for Saul proxy play uh and get exposure to Saul in my UK ISA? He didn't mention if it's a leap or not. So, we'll talk about all those issues.
A lot to unpack here. Crypto proxies can be great if you time them right. Okay. First of all, Hodddle model is back again. This is the NAV premium of 0.51 for D5 Development Corporation.
That sounds great on paper. That means basically you're buying Salana at half off. But there's a twist. In fact, there's a number of twists. First of all, they've got a ton of debt.
Okay, nearly half the market cap is debt. 125 130 million. Important. Always look at the financials. Also, when you look at the numbers, 89% off all-time highs. They have 2.56 million sold, which you saw on the hodddle model.
Liabilities 126 million and preferred is 16 million stated value. That's the first thing.
所以我回溯到 DeFi Dev 开始囤积 Salana 的时候,计算了那段时间内他们的稀释情况,并决定也把它和一直在大量稀释的 Micro Strategy 做个比较。咱们都公平一点。
所以,我会给你们展示什么叫大量,然后我也会给你们展示什么叫疯狂的数量。你有所有这些,你知道,也许是影响者和拉盘的人在说,哦对,很棒的代理标的,NAV 溢价很便宜,但你必须非常仔细地看它的内在。
非常仔细。好。现在,我甚至没有去看 Smarter Web 公司的稀释情况,因为我的模型不计算英国证券交易所的公司。我无法获取那些信息,因为我的数据源没有那些信息。但不管怎样,我无法计算 Smarter Web Company 的通胀情况。
我确信它大概率也不怎么样。但 DeFi Dev 的稀释是130.76%。自2025年6月以来,一年多一点点,130.76%。所以,它比 Micro Strategy 高出5.5倍,这可不太妙,我的朋友们。不太妙。
So I went back to when DeFi dev started stacking Salana and calculated their dilution in that time frame and decided I would compare it also to Micro Strategy who has been diluting a lot.
Let's all be fair here. So, I'll show you what a lot looks like and then I'll show you what a crazy amount looks like as well. And you have all these, you know, maybe influencers and pumpers talking about, oh yeah, great proxy and nav premium is cheap, but you have to look under the hood very carefully.
Very carefully. Okay. Now, I didn't even look at delution for smarter web company because my model doesn't calculate the British stock exchange firms. I don't have access to that information because my data source doesn't have that information.
But anyway, I couldn't calculate the inflation on Smarter Web Company. I'm sure it's probably not that good either. But the DeFi dev dilution is 130.76%. Since June 2025, a little over a year, 130.76%.
So, it is 5 a half times higher than that of Micro Strategy, which is no bueno, my friends. No bueno.
现在,让我们看看 Sol 对 D5 Dev。同样,自他们开始囤积以来,Salon 跑赢 D5 Dev 达251%。那是 DFTV,不是 DFCV。我的笔误,忽略它。
Now, let's look at Sol versus D5 dev. Again, since they started stacking, Salon has beaten D5 dev by 251%. That's a DFTV, not DFCV. My typo, ignore that.
好,第一跳,你有现货下跌,这影响很大。第二跳,你的 DFDV 有1.24倍的波动率,这是 Salana 波动率的倍数,然后是第三跳。你的 LEAP 带有巨大的隐含波动率,这意味着它们非常非常昂贵。
好,把这一切在脑子里合起来。这就是代理标的的危险。如果你在代理标的上买入 LEAP,尤其是考虑到这种疯狂的稀释,你会被彻底打爆。举个例子,Caner Fit Fitzgerald 曾给 DeFi Dev 定下45美元的目标价。
现在只有10美元。你怎么能在一年前从45美元跌到10美元?这就是答案的一部分。债务也是。现在的现实是,要再次回到原来的位置,回到历史高点,你需要9.4倍的回报。记住,杠杆会摧毁下行资本。
你应该始终用纯现货形式来做这件事,或者用我马上要提到的另一种方案,直接使用现货,或者用我做的 Sol 永续合约,或者用像 Saul 的 ETF 这类东西上的 LEAP。就这样。否则,你会被烤熟。
Okay, hop one, you've got your spot dropping, which has a big impact. Hop two, your DFDV has a 1.24x type. This is times the volatility of Salana and hop three. Your leaps carry huge implied volatility which means they're very very expensive.
Okay, put all that together in your head. This is the danger of the proxies. And if you're buying a leap on the proxy, especially in light of this insane delusion, you get completely smoked.
For example, Caner Fit Fitzgerald had a $45 target on DeFi Dev. Now it's $10. How do you go a year ago from 45 bucks down to 10 bucks? That's part of the answer. So is debt. Now the reality is again to get back to where it was to get back to all-time highs, you need a 9.4x return.
Remember leverage destroys the downside capital. You should always go pure form for this or another solution which I'll get to in a second too. utilize spots all direct directly or a per on soul which I do or leaps on things like an ETF from Saul. That's it. Otherwise, you get cooked.
还有结论,当你真的在像 DeFi Dev 这样的东西上买入 LEAP 时,那就是杠杆化的 Saul 敞口。是的,如果 Saul 一飞冲天,你会做得很好。尤其是如果你买了一个只投入很少本金的 LEAP,而 DeFi Dev 从5美元涨到40美元,你会赚一大笔。
问题在于债务结构是什么样的?稀释的线索是什么?这才是关键。每当你看这些代理标的时,永远要看每股对应的 salt、看 MNAV,并且要非常小心。把它当彩票买,仅此而已。
And the verdict as well, when you do buy leaps on something like a DeFi dev, it's leverage Saul exposure. Yeah, if Saul goes to the moon, you're going to do fine. And especially if you have a leap that you put very little down on and you've got DeFi dev going from $5 to 40 bucks, you'll make a fortune.
The problem is what does the debt stack look like? What is the dilution thread? That is key. Always when you're looking at these proxies, look at salt per share, look at the MNAV, and be very careful. Buy it as a lottery ticket, nothing else.
这个频道对 $DFDV 的历次判断
InvestAnswers 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。