$DG · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-03
给予 Dollar General 低信心买入评级：按我的贴现现金流估值，每股价值 165 美元，而市价为 126 美元，因此按此方法看显得低估；但考虑到其增长前景，15 倍远期市盈率似乎略偏高。我怀疑分析师预期的 11.4% EPS 增长，押注三到五年内为 7% 至 9%，因为要达到管理层 6% 至 8% 的营业利润率目标需要漫长的改善过程，我不确定他们能在当前宏观环境下做到；目前情况看起来不错，但我的信心较弱。
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Dollar General 的管理团队说了一些对所有股市投资者都非常有意思的话，而不只是对关注这家公司的投资者。
The management team at Dollar General said something really interesting for all stock market investors, not just investors interested in this company.
他们是这么说的：就连年收入超过10万美元的家庭，也会表现出与财富较少、收入较低的消费者相似的消费行为。
Here’s what they said: Even families earning more than $100,000 a year follow consumer behaviors that mimic those of less wealthy, lower-income consumers.
但我觉得有意思的是，Dollar General 的管理团队指出，年收入超过10万美元的人也被迫诉诸这些购买习惯，一件一件地买东西。
But I found it interesting that the management team at Dollar General notes that people who earn more than $100,000 a year are forced to resort to these buying habits where they buy things piece by piece.
所以总的来说，当消费者转向这类消费领域时，这对 Dollar General 是好消息，因为它在经济困难时期通常表现很好。
So, in general, when consumers search for these types of areas, it's good news for Dollar General, which typically thrives during tough economic times.
现在是买入 Dollar General 股票的好时机吗？这是我想在这个视频里回答的问题。有意思的是，从2025年以来，你可以看到跟踪 Dollar General 的分析师对它的前景变得更加乐观，因为2025年以来消费者的预算越来越紧张，不是吗？
Is it a good time to buy Dollar General shares? This is the question I want to answer in this video. Interestingly, since 2025, you can see that Dollar General analysts who follow the company have become more optimistic about its prospects because the consumer budget since 2025 is getting worse, isn't it?
因此，分析师现在预计 Dollar General 在未来几年实现11.4%的每股收益增长。事实上，Dollar General 的管理团队也给出了乐观的预测，表示他们的营业利润率将平均升至6%到8%之间。
Therefore, analysts now expect Dollar General to achieve earnings per share of 11.4% over the next few years. In fact, the management team at Dollar General also presented optimistic forecasts indicating that their operating profit margin would rise to between 6% and 8% on average.
他们已经显示出营业利润率的改善，从4%上升到5.6%。他们是通过减少门店中的浪费或盗窃，以及减少员工和顾客在门店中造成的损失来实现这一点的。
They have already shown an improvement in their operating profit margins, which have risen from 4% to 5.6%. They did this by reducing waste or theft in their stores, and by reducing the damage caused by employees and customers in their stores.
要记住，这些门店多年来一直没有获得足够的投资。它们是你所能找到的投资最不足的网站或零售商之一。因此，这一方面的任何改善都会产生非常显著的影响。
Remember that these are stores that have not received sufficient investment over many years. These are some of the most underinvested websites or retailers you will ever find. Therefore, any improvement in this category has a very significant impact.
Dollar General 目前的远期市盈率为15，考虑到它的增长和盈利能力前景，我觉得这似乎有点高估了。
Dollar General is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15, which seems a bit overvalued to me given its growth and profitability prospects.
如果 Dollar General 真的能达到分析师预测的每股收益水平，我会认为那是一个重大胜利。事实上，我敢打赌，公司在未来三到五年内不会达到这些每股收益预测。我会说他们实现的百分比更接近7%到9%，而不是11%或更高。
If Dollar General actually manages to achieve the level of earnings per share that analysts are predicting, I would consider that a major victory. In fact, I would bet the company will not achieve these earnings per share projections over the next three to five years.
I would say they will achieve a percentage closer to 7% to 9% rather than 11% or more.
因为公司并不处于那个位置，需要经历一个漫长而稳定的改善过程才能达到那样的每股收益增长水平，而考虑到我们面临的宏观经济背景，我不确定他们能否做到。
Because the company is not in that position and needs to undertake a long and steady improvement process in order to reach that level of earnings per share growth, which I am not sure they can achieve given the macroeconomic background we are facing.
因此，我更新了对 Dollar General 的现金流折现评估，计算出公司每股价值165美元。目前的市场价格是126美元。所以，用这种估值方法来看，这只股票似乎被低估了。
Therefore, I updated my discounted cash flow assessment for Dollar General and calculated that the company is worth $165 per share. The current market price is $126. Therefore, using this valuation method, the stock appears to be undervalued.
因此，我把 Dollar General 股票评为买入机会，我上一次更新是在4月7日。由于我在这个视频中提到的原因，我的信心水平较低、信念不强。而今天，我重复这一预测。它看起来像是一个买入机会，但我对这项业务不太有信心。我对这个机会的长期前景不太有信心。
Therefore, I rated Dollar General stock as a buy opportunity and my last update was on April 7. I had a low level of confidence and weak conviction for the reasons I mentioned in this video.
And today, I repeat this prediction. It looks like a buying opportunity, but I'm not very confident about this business. I am not very confident about the long-term prospects of this opportunity.
目前情况看起来不错，但我不确信管理团队能够落实这个计划。
Things look good at the moment, but I am not confident that the management team will be able to implement this plan.