$DIS

迪士尼的最优策略是将非体验类资产(制片/流媒体)与Netflix合并,从而剥离低利润率业务,保留IP/股权,并专注于高利润率的体验业务。

《Paramount + Warner Bros.: The $110 Billion Bet That Could Reshape Streaming》
The Motley Fool发布 2026-10-06 · 11 段内容
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这大约是 Disney 价值的一半,但他们并不拥有作为 Disney 利润引擎的主题公园。你有 Netflix、Disney,以及许多其他参与者。

This is roughly half the value of Disney, but they do not own the theme parks that are the engine of Disney's profits. You have Netflix, Disney, and a host of other players.

如果把 Hulu 和 ESPN Plus 的订阅用户也算进去,它大致与 Disney Plus 相当。他们远远领先于 Disney,甚至领先于 Netflix。

It is roughly on par with Disney Plus when you take into account Hulu and ESPN Plus subscribers as well. They are far ahead of Disney, and even Netflix.

但这也包括,如你所知,Disney 的传统频道。

But this also includes, as you know, Disney's traditional channels as well.

我订阅的套餐是通过 Disney 的,但里面包含“HBO Max”。所以,我不知道,它会被拿走吗?我是不是得重新订阅 Paramount Max?

The package I subscribe to is through Disney, but it includes "HBO Max". So, I don't know, will it be taken away from me? Will I have to resubscribe to Paramount Max?

现在你有像 ESPN 这样的公司,联盟在其中持有股份。他们需要那些内容。CBS、Paramount,那个企业集团需要那些内容。

Now you have companies like ESPN, in which the league has a stake. They need that content. CBS, Paramount, you know, that conglomerate needs that content.

他们有 4600 万付费订阅用户,不到 Disney 套餐或这家新合并公司订阅用户数的四分之一。谁能做到这一点?是 Disney 吗?是 Netflix 吗?

They have 46 million paid subscribers, which is less than a quarter of the number of subscribers to Disney's bundle or this new merged company. Who can do that? Is it Disney? Is it Netflix?

Netflix 负担得起。Disney 负担得起。问题只在于能否通过监管程序,以及那会是什么样子。我们此前见过迪士尼与一些它并不持股的公司合作,这为双方都带来了积极的结果。

Netflix can afford that. Disney can afford that. It's simply a matter of being able to get through the regulatory process and what that might look like. We have seen Disney partner with certain companies before that it does not own, and this has yielded positive results for both parties.

很难想象,已经拥有ABC的迪士尼还会得到这个机会。

It's hard to imagine that Disney, with ABC already owned, would get a chance at that.

我仍然认为——而这只是我坚信的一个观点——在这里取得优势的关键一步,是让迪士尼把它的制片厂和流媒体业务,以及所有与体验无关的业务拿出来,与Netflix合并,同时迪士尼保留股份、保留知识产权并继续开发它,但这样做是为了让迪士尼摆脱那块它无法做成功的低利润率业务,尽管它用尽一切办法想改变现实,却始终在这块业务上挣扎。

I still believe, and this is just an opinion I hold very strongly, that the crucial step to gain an advantage here is for Disney to take its studio and streaming business, and everything that is not related to experiences, and merge it with Netflix while Disney retains a stake, maintains the intellectual property and continues to develop it, but in order for Disney to get out of the low-margin business that they are unable to make successful, and in which they have struggled despite all their attempts to change the reality.

作为一个要为孩子看什么做决定的家长,迪士尼的消失会很糟糕,因为它是唯一一个真正会消失的服务。

As a parent who makes decisions about what my children watch, the disappearance of Disney would be terrible because it's the only service that will really disappear.

对迪士尼来说,就像是:我们继续利用这一点,但把重点放在过去十年里行之有效的业务部分,也就是体验、邮轮之类的东西。我们为什么不干脆专注于真正赚钱的那部分业务呢?

For Disney, it's like, let's continue to capitalize on this, but let's focus on the parts of the business that have worked over the past decade, which are, again, experiences, cruises, and things like that.

Why don't we just focus on the part of the work that generates money?

这个频道对 $DIS 的历次判断

The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-06本条
这大约是 Disney 价值的一半,但他们并不拥有作为 Disney 利润引擎的主题公园。
2026-09-02看跌
里克,我知道你曾对奈飞和迪士尼持乐观态度。现在,如果你要投入新资金,并且你之前没有持股。它们中的任何一个是否代表你的买入机会,你会选择哪一个?
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