DKNG 是值得长期买入的标的；尽管风险较高，当前的低估值（11 倍远期市盈率）和约 18.59 美元的股价反映了过度悲观的情绪。
逐段跳播
DraftKings 终于在预测市场开始获得增长势头。起初，这对该公司来说是一大障碍，但如今已有超过一百万名客户在使用其预测市场产品。
DraftKings has finally begun to gain momentum in the forecasting markets. Initially, this was a major obstacle for the company, but it now has over one million customers interacting with its prediction market products.
管理层预计，到 NFL 赛季结束时，今年参与预测市场活动的这类客户数量将达到数百万。这一点很有意思，因为 Draft Kings 相比许多竞争对手拥有更优越的市场进入策略，但随后预测市场推出，加上现任管理层对预测市场公司进入市场持宽松态度。
By the end of the NFL season, the management team expects the number of these customers interacting with the prediction markets' activities this year to reach several million. This is interesting because Draft Kings had a superior market entry strategy compared to many of its competitors, but then came the launch of forecast markets and the current management's lenient attitude towards forecast market companies entering the market.
Draft Kings 对这种情况持乐观态度，并向投资者表示：“看，无论哪种情况我们都会赢。”如果这种监管环境持续下去，即局面类似“狂野西部”，你可以随时在这些公司上对任何东西下注，而无需经过监管程序获得批准才能提供这类投注，那么 Draft Kings 就可以提供这些产品；由于其产品更优越，它可以像现在这样获得市场份额。
Draft Kings views this situation with optimism and tells investors: "Look, we win either way." If this type of regulatory environment remains in place, where the situation resembles the "Wild West" and you can bet on anything at any time with these companies without having to go through a regulatory process to obtain approval to make these types of bets available, then Draft Kings can offer these products; Because its products are superior, it can gain market share as it already does.
另一方面，Draft Kings 告诉投资者，如果监管环境发生变化——这经常发生，取决于谁在任、谁制定政策——并且如果我们走向更严格的监管环境，预测市场运营商不再被允许在各州运营，Draft Kings 仍然是赢家，因为它已经拥有出色的策略，可以在各个州获得体育博彩的市场准入，并在较小程度上获得在线博彩（iGaming）的市场准入。
On the other hand, Draft Kings told investors that if the regulatory environment changes, which often happens depending on who is in office and who sets the policies, and if we move towards a more restrictive regulatory environment where prediction market operators are no longer allowed to operate in the states, Draft Kings is still a winner because it already has an excellent strategy for gaining access to markets in individual states for sports betting and, to a lesser extent, for online gaming (iGaming).
因此，在两种情况下，Draft Kings 都已将自己定位为这一博彩类别中的赢家。出于这个原因，投资者对这只股票感到好奇。
So, in both cases, Draft Kings has positioned itself to be a winner in this gaming category. For this reason, investors are curious about this stock.
所以，我想更深入地探究一下，来回答我认为它现在是否是一个买入机会。我提到过，这起初是一个障碍，因为 Draft Kings 不得不适应这些政策变化，而这些变化导致了竞争加剧。
So, I wanted to delve a little deeper to answer whether I think it's a buying opportunity right now. I mentioned that this was initially a hurdle, as Draft Kings had to adapt to these policy changes that led to increased competition.
所以，它的收入略有下降，不是吗？多年来，Draft Kings 一直处于上升轨道：获得市场份额、增加收入、扩展到新的州和新的司法管辖区，并凭借更优越的产品获得更大的价值。
So, its revenues have declined slightly, haven't they? For years, Draft Kings has been on an upward trajectory: gaining market share, increasing revenue, expanding into new states and new jurisdictions, and with a superior product, gaining even greater value.
因为现实一点说，如果客户可以在线或通过应用程序下注，而不必开车去当地赌场下注，那么对客户的价值主张要好得多。因此，一旦 Draft Kings 在某个司法管辖区获得监管批准，它几乎立即就能获得可观的市场份额，这当然要归功于吸引客户的品牌认知营销。
Because let's be realistic, the value proposition for the customer is much better if you can bet online or through an app instead of having to drive to a local casino to make those bets.
Thus, once Draft Kings obtains regulatory approval in a particular jurisdiction, it almost immediately gains a substantial market share, thanks of course to awareness marketing that attracts customers.
但竞争对手预测市场的推出终结了这一切，公司收入有所下降，降至 62.2 亿，Draft Kings 花了一些时间才适应。
But the launch of competitors' forecast markets put an end to that, and the company's revenues fell somewhat to 6.22 billion, and it took time for Draft Kings to adapt.
管理层现在有信心，凭借这些新产品，即预测市场产品，他们将获得数百万新客户，并且能够重回增长轨道。不过，管理层也表示，目前正在增加营销投入，因为他们看到了非常有利的环境，以及这笔营销支出非常令人鼓舞的回报。
Management now feels confident that they will gain millions of new customers thanks to these new products, the prospects markets products, and that they are able to get back on track for their growth.
However, management also stated that it is currently increasing its marketing investments because it sees a very favorable environment and a very encouraging return on this marketing expenditure.
这种能够增加新客户的效率，让公司管理层有动力在营销上投入更多，不是吗？作为一名营销人员，如果你从事这一领域，你就知道这个等式。它就是客户的长期价值与获取客户成本之比。如果你觉得这个等式有利，你就会加大投入。
你会向这一类别投入更多资金。这正是 Draft Kings 目前所注意到的。
The efficiency that enables them to add new customers gives the company's management team the encouragement to spend more on marketing, doesn't it? As a marketer, if you work in this field, you know the equation.
It is the long-term value of the customer compared to the cost of acquiring the customer. If you feel that this equation is favorable, you expand upon it. You are pumping more money into that category.
This is what Draft Kings is noticing at the moment.
当前的获客成本环境，与他们所吸引客户的长期价值相比，利润非常丰厚。
The current acquisition cost environment is highly profitable compared to the long-term value they see in the customers they attract.
因此，管理层表示，他们计划在2027年投入的营销费用，将把其中一部分提前到2026年，趁条件有利时使用。但投资者并不买账。投资者感到担忧。
Therefore, management said that the money they plan to spend in 2027 on marketing, they will put part of it forward to 2026 while conditions are favorable. But investors are not impressed. Investors are worried.
Draft Kings的估值从未像现在这样便宜。该股目前的远期市盈率仅为11倍。仅为11倍。因此，这是一个预期长期将保持稳定或以极低速度增长的公司的指标。
Draft Kings' valuation has never been cheaper than it is now. The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 11. Only 11. So, this is an indicator of a company that is expected to remain stable or grow at very low rates in the long term.
因此，投资者对Draft Kings的预期非常低。围绕“Draft Kings”的情绪极其负面。同样，当我用现金流折现模型评估该公司时，也得出了类似的结论。
Therefore, investor expectations for Draft Kings are very low. The feelings surrounding "Draft Kings" are extremely negative. Similarly, when I evaluated the company using the discounted cash flow model, I came to a similar conclusion.
你原本会这样预期，因为该股正接近其52周低点18.59美元。52周内的最低水平实际上是18.52美元。所以，在我看来，我认为这对长期投资者来说是一个绝佳的机会。
You were expecting that because the stock is trading near its 52-week low of $18.59. The lowest level in 52 weeks was actually $18.52. So, in my opinion, I think this is a great opportunity for long-term investors.
然而，这种局面风险极高。对“Draft Kings”而言，竞争已变得空前激烈。
However, this situation is extremely risky. The competition has become fiercer than ever for "Draft Kings".
她必须以不同于以往习惯的方式参与竞争。她必须以自己未曾预料到的方式做出调整。所有这些都增加了风险，我在评估框架中对此做了调整，提高了用于该公司的贝塔系数，因为在我看来，展望未来三到五年时，其风险高于回顾过去三到五年时的风险。
She has to compete in a different way than she is used to. She has to adapt in a way she didn't expect. All of this increases the risk, and I have adjusted that in my assessment profile by increasing the beta coefficient I use for the company, because I see it as riskier when looking at the next three to five years compared to the risk when looking at the past three to five years.
所以，我上调了风险评估，但即便在调整之后，该股看起来仍然非常有吸引力。这一点只应被风险承受能力较高的投资者纳入考虑，但如果你风险承受能力较高、又在寻求更高回报，我认为DraftKings在这里代表着一个极佳的机会。
So, I adjusted my risk assessment to be higher, but even after that, the stock still looks very attractive. This should only be taken into account by investors with a high risk tolerance, but if you have a higher risk tolerance and are looking for higher returns, I think DraftKings represents an excellent opportunity here.
这个频道对 $DKNG 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。