DOCN 获上调至买入：营收增长正在加速（2026年第四季度为35%，2027年至少50%），但随着公司投资于产能，利润率正在收缩，这正是该股从约180美元跌至约102美元的原因。按55倍远期市盈率计算，122美元的DCF估值意味着未来12至18个月约有20%的上行空间。
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Digital Ocean 预计 2026 年第四季度的营收增长为 35%。这相比其上一个已结束季度的 28% 有所提升。
Digital Ocean expects revenue growth of 35% in the upcoming fourth quarter of 2026. This represents an increase from 28% in its last completed quarter.
此外，管理团队预计 2027 年的营收增长至少为 50%。那么，在这样加速的营收增长之下，为什么 Digital Ocean 的股价却在下跌？
Furthermore, the management team anticipates revenue growth of at least 50% in 2027. So, with this kind of accelerated revenue growth, why is Digital Ocean's stock price declining?
原因在于，管理团队已经表示，营收增长将以牺牲营业利润率为代价，因为他们要投入资金来把握巨大的增长机会。所以，投资者在问我，这次股价下跌加上加速的营收增长，是否构成了这家公司的买入机会。
Well, the reason is that the management team has stated that revenue growth will come at the expense of operating profit margins, as they invest to take advantage of their enormous growth opportunities.
So, investors are asking me if this price drop, coupled with accelerating revenue growth, represents a buying opportunity for this company.
我想通过审视这些近期动态、将其与长期表现进行比较，并结合新的、更新后的估值计算来权衡，从而回答这个问题，判断现在是否真的是一个买入机会。
I want to answer this question by looking at these recent developments, comparing them to their long-term performance, and balancing them with new and updated valuation calculations to determine if it is a genuine buying opportunity now.
从长期来看，Digital Ocean 一直在稳步扩大营收。营收从 2021 年的约 3 亿增长到过去 12 个月的 10 亿。
In the long run, Digital Ocean has been steadily expanding its revenues. Revenues have increased from around 300 million in 2021 to one billion over the past 12 months.
随着近期的加速，你可以看到营收增长曲线的斜率是向上的。代理式 AI 的普及对 Digital Ocean 是利好，而从闭源权重模型转向开源权重模型也是利好。
With the recent acceleration, you can see the slope of the revenue growth curve is upward. The spread of proxy AI was positive for Digital Ocean, and the shift to open-weight models versus closed-weight models was also positive.
公司认为，客户并不是要最大化 token 数量，而是通过以更低成本转向开源权重模型来实现价值最大化。
Instead of maximizing tokens, the company believes its customers maximize value by moving to openweight models at a lower cost.
但他们需要投资于这部分额外产能，以满足客户需求不断上升。这导致他们的利润率收缩。其中一个正在收缩的利润率是经营现金流比率，过去 12 个月为 31%。
But they need to invest in that additional capacity to meet this increasing rise in customer demand. This causes their profit margins to shrink. One of these margins that is shrinking is the cash flow ratio from operations, which was 31% over the past 12 months.
你可以看到，这一指标从大约 2021 年到 2025 年稳步上升，从 15% 提高到 39%。投资者喜欢看到营收增长加速的同时利润率也在扩大。这是公司产品和服务存在内生需求的最有力证据。
You can see that this metric was on a steady rise from approximately 2021 to 2025, increasing from 15% to 39%. Investors like to see revenue growth accelerate along with expanding margins.
This is the strongest evidence of organic demand for the company's products and services.
但当营收增长加速而利润率收缩时，投资者会以更大的怀疑态度看待。他们认为，是新的投资在推动增长，而不是对公司产品和服务的内生需求在充当增长的引擎。
But when revenue growth accelerates while profit margins shrink, investors view it with greater skepticism. They believe that new investment is driving growth, rather than organic demand for the company's products and services being the engine of that growth.
因此，这削弱了营收增长加速这一证据的力度。利润率效应是 Digital Ocean 股价在 2026 年失去动能的主要原因。
Therefore, this reduces the strength of the proof of accelerated revenue growth. The margin effect is the main reason Digital Ocean's stock has lost momentum here in 2026.
年初至今，该股仍上涨超过 111%，但已从今年早些时候的每股约 180 美元跌至本视频发布时的每股约 102 美元。
Year to date, the stock is still up more than 111%, but it has dropped from around $180 per share earlier this year to around $102 per share at the time of this video.
我喜欢 Digital Ocean 的一点是，随着公司扩大营收，研发费用占营收的比例会下降。确实，由于他们为抓住增长机会而加大投入，这一比例近期略有上升，但 18.7% 仍远低于该指标在 2022 年录得的 29%。
One of the things I like about Digital Ocean is that the ratio of research and development expenses to revenue decreases as the company expands its revenue. It is true that there has been a slight increase recently as a result of their investing more to seize growth opportunities, but at 18.7%, this percentage remains much lower than the 29% that this indicator recorded in 2022.
Digital Ocean 可以增加研发预算，我希望它这么做；因为从根本上说，每家公司都需要这样做，才能拓展机会、创新并推出新的产品和服务。
Digital Ocean can increase its research and development budget, and I hope it does so; Because every company needs this fundamentally to expand its opportunities and innovate to offer new products and services.
但随着它们的营收增长，我希望看到它们的研发支出以低于营收增长率的百分比增长。随着它们的营收增长率加快，它们将能够扩大研发预算，同时使其占营收的比例保持在较低水平，这将带来整体盈利能力的提升。
But as their revenues grow, I would like to see their research and development expenditures grow at a lower percentage than their revenue growth rate. As their revenue growth rate accelerates, they will be able to expand their research and development budget while keeping it as a lower percentage of revenue, which will lead to increased overall profitability.
与规模更大的公司相比，这一比率相对较高，后者的研发支出占营收比率通常低于10%，而且往往低于7%。随着公司股价下跌，其估值倍数也下降了。
This ratio is relatively high compared to larger companies, whose R&D to revenue ratio is usually less than 10%, and often less than 7%. As the company's share price fell, its valuation multiple also fell.
基于前瞻市盈率，该股目前的交易市盈率为55，考虑到他们预测的50%营收增长，我认为这相对有吸引力；而经营现金流与销售额的比率虽然没有扩大，但仍相对强劲，超过30%。
Based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio, the stock is now trading at 55, which I find relatively attractive given their forecast of 50% revenue growth, and the operating cash flow to sales ratio, while not expanding, is still relatively strong at over 30%.
这意味着它们正在产生正的经营现金流，它们可以用这些现金流回购股票，或偿还部分现有债务，例如可转换债券发行等。这给公司带来了更大的灵活性，并降低了稀释股东持股的风险。
This means they are generating positive operating cash flow, which they can use to repurchase shares, or to pay off some of their existing obligations, such as convertible debt issues, and others.
This gives the company greater flexibility and reduces the risk of diluting shareholder stakes.
今天，我还用现金流折现法更新了对 Digital Ocean 的评估。我现在计算出这项业务的价值为每股122美元，而当前市场价格约为102美元。
Today, I also updated my assessment of Digital Ocean using the discounted cash flow method. I now calculate the value of this business at $122 per share, compared to the current market price of approximately $102.
这留下了在未来12到18个月内约20%的上涨空间。
This leaves an opportunity for an increase of approximately 20% over the next 12 to 18 months.
我上一次评估这家公司是在5月13日，当时指出其估值似乎过高，不适合在那个时点买入。但今天，我将把 Digital Ocean 的股票评级上调至“买入”。我认为目前的评级已经足够有吸引力，足以支持这次上调。
I last evaluated the company on May 13, noting that the valuation seemed too expensive to buy at that moment. But today, I will upgrade Digital Ocean's stock rating to "buy". I believe the rating is now attractive enough to justify this upgrade.