$DOCU · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-03
DocuSign 仍是买入机会，按远期市盈率和现金流折现估值（101 美元，对比 83 美元市价）仍被低估，但信心有所下降：该股 2026 年已翻倍有余，远期市盈率从不到 10 升至 15.9，接近合理估值。说话者预计长期每股收益增长 11-12%，而华尔街预期为 14.7%；认为 AI 的威胁没有担心的那么大；指出人均营收翻倍至 463,000；并认为电子签名市场规模较小，会令更大的竞争对手望而却步。
逐段跳播
在年初开局不稳之后，DocuSign 的股价正经历大幅上涨。按今天的市场价格计算，该股自 2026 年初以来已上涨超过 21%。在跌至每股约 40 美元后，其股价已翻了一倍多，超过每股 82 美元。
After a rocky start to the year, DocuSign's stock is experiencing a significant rise. Based on today's market price, the stock has risen by more than 21 % since the beginning of 2026.
After falling to around $40 per share, its value has more than doubled to exceed $82 per share.
代理式 AI 的普及对 DocuSign 业务的冲击，并没有像一些人今年早些时候担心的那样具有“致命性”。我已将 DocuSign 评为 2026 年的买入机会。因此，我很高兴看到这家企业在不断变化的技术格局中表现良好。
The proliferation of proxy AI has not been as "killer" for DocuSign's business as some had feared earlier this year. I have rated DocuSign as a buy opportunity for 2026. So, I am pleased to see the business performing well amid the changing technology landscape.
DocuSign 已将其业务与 Google 的 Slack 和 Gemini 等平台打通，使 DocuSign 更容易被用作首选的签名选项。
DocuSign has linked its work to platforms such as Google's Slack and Gemini, among others, to make DocuSign easier to use as a preferred signature option.
但在股价已经翻倍之后，这一切是否仍让 DocuSign 在今天成为买入机会？这是我想和大家一起回答的问题。
But does all this make DocuSign a buying opportunity even today after the stock price has doubled ? This is the question I want us to answer together.
让我们看看这些近期进展，将其与公司的长期表现相比较，并结合更新后的估值加以权衡，以判断它对长期投资者而言是否仍是买入机会。
Let's look at these recent developments, compare them to the company's long-term performance, and balance them against the updated valuation, to determine whether it is still a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
你可以看到我刚才谈到的 DocuSign 在 2026 年的股价表现。我关注这家公司已经很长时间了，最大的风险之一就是某个更大的竞争对手会推出类似服务，抢走它的市场份额。
You can see the stock price performance I was talking about for DocuSign in 2026. I've been following this company for a long time, and one of the biggest risks was that a bigger competitor would create one of its services and take over its market share.
我一直觉得，电子签名可覆盖的整体市场太小，大公司不会费心去抢夺 DocuSign 的主导地位。电子签名每年的总支出不到 1000 亿美元。从大局来看，这是你在任何业务类别中能找到的最小的市场之一。
因此，面对这种相对较小的机会，规模更大的参与者不会费心去开发产品，与一个已经享有市场领导者主导地位的公司竞争。
I always felt that the total market available for electronic signatures was so small that major companies would not bother trying to steal DocuSign's dominant position. Total spending on electronic signatures is less than $100 billion annually.
In the big picture, this is one of the smallest markets available that you will find in any business category. Thus, with this type of relatively small opportunity, the larger players will not bother to create a product to compete with someone who already enjoys a dominant position as a market leader.
不过，我预计电子签名行业会继续增长，因为在 95% 的使用场景中，用实体纸张签署文件似乎并不合理。当然，还有那 5% 或 10% 的比例。我不会就这个规模与你争论，这部分可能出于安全和谨慎需要实体签名，对吧？
但对于另外 90%，电子签名就可以满足，只是市场还没有达到那个程度。因此，我认为电子签名会继续增长，直到占全球所有签名约 90% 的市场份额。
However, I expect the electronic signature industry to continue to grow, as signing documents on physical paper does not seem logical in 95% of use cases. There is, of course, that percentage of 5% or 10%.
I won't argue with you about this size, which may require a physical signature for safety and precaution, will I ? But for the other 90%, you can be satisfied with an electronic signature, but the market has not reached that point yet.
Therefore, I believe that electronic signatures will continue to grow until they reach approximately 90% of the market share for all signatures worldwide.
关注 DocuSign 的华尔街分析师预计其长期每股收益将强劲增长，预测中长期每股收益增长 14.7%。但如果你问我，我会预期低于 14.7% 的百分比。我更倾向于预期 DocuSign 股票未来几年的长期盈利增长在 11% 到 12% 之间。
Wall Street analysts who follow DocuSign expect strong long-term earnings per share growth, forecasting 14.7% growth in earnings per share over the medium to long term. But if you ask me, I would expect a percentage lower than 14.7 %.
I am more inclined to expect long-term earnings growth for Docosine stock of between 11 and 12% over the next few years.
我在许多科技公司密切关注的一个因素是人均营收。我把这个指标看作评估一家公司如何学会改善自身表现、从而提升单个员工层面生产率的方式。对我来说，这也是公司在利用人工智能提升组织生产率的证据。
我在“DocuSign”身上看到了这种显著的改善。它的人均营收几乎翻了一倍，从 2019 年的约 250,000 增至过去十二个月的 463,000。
One of the factors I watch closely at many technology companies is revenue per employee. I see this metric as a way to assess how well a company learns to improve its performance, and thus increase its productivity at the individual employee level.
It is also evidence for me that the company is using artificial intelligence to enhance the organization's productivity. And I see this remarkable improvement in "DocuCyne". Its revenue per employee has almost doubled from about 250,000 in 2019 to 463,000 during the last twelve months.
现在，随着“DocuSign”股价的上涨，其市值也变得更高了。
Now, with the improvement in the price of "DocuSign" shares, its market value has become even higher.
今年早些时候，该股的远期市盈率不到 10 倍，我当时指出这是一个极好的买入机会。但该股现在的远期市盈率为 15.9 倍，是今年早些时候的两倍，与股价自年初以来翻倍相符。
Earlier this year, the stock was trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of less than 10, and I noted at the time that it was an excellent buying opportunity. But the stock is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9, double what it was earlier this year, in line with the stock's price doubling since the start of the year.
顺便说一句，如果把 15.9 倍的远期市盈率与公司 14.7% 的长期每股收益增长预期相比较，市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG）大约是一比一。
Incidentally, if we compare the forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 with the company’s long-term earnings per share growth estimates of 14.7%, the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is approximately one to one.
此外，我更新了对 DocuSign 贴现现金流的评估，并上调了估计，因为公司在这个阶段的表现好于我的预期。因此，我现在计算出的公司价值为每股 101 美元，而当前市场价格为 83 美元。
In addition, I updated my assessment of DocuSign's discounted cash flows and raised my estimates because the company is performing better than I expected at this stage . Therefore, I have now calculated the company's value at $101 per share compared to the current market price of $83.
因此，我仍然认为这家公司被低估了，无论是以市盈率还是以贴现现金流模型来衡量。我说过，我全年都将这只股票评为买入机会，这一评级的上一次更新是在 2026 年 6 月 26 日。如你所见，股价在那段时间里翻了一倍多。
所以，我希望你把它视为买入机会。今天，我重申它仍是买入机会，但我降低了对这一评估的信念和信心程度。由于股价已经翻倍并接近其公允价值，我认为这是一个强劲买入机会的信念和信心程度已经下降。
Therefore, I still believe that the company is undervalued, whether measured by the price-to-earnings ratio or the discounted cash flow model. I have stated that I have rated this stock as a buy opportunity all year round, and the last update to this rating was on June 26, 2026.
As you can see, the stock price has more than doubled during that period. So, I hope you saw this as a buying opportunity. Today, I reiterate that it is still a buying opportunity, but I am lowering my level of conviction and confidence in this assessment.
Since the share price has already doubled and is close to its fair value, my conviction and level of confidence that this is a strong buying opportunity has decreased .