$DRAM · Investing Simplified - Professor G · 2026-11-05
我持有 DRAM，只要跌幅足够大就加仓，称这是自己最大胆的 AI 押注，因风险极高而仓位较小；我提到约 75% 的集中度在 Micron、Samsung 和 SK Hynix，供应到 2029 年几乎售罄，而价格涨幅从 80% 和 40% 放缓至第四季度预期的 10-15%，令投资者担心周期已经见顶。
逐段跳播
接下来实际上是一只交易所交易基金（ETF），Roundhill Memory ETF DRAM，今天交易价格约为54美元，自4月推出以来上涨约95%，但上个月下跌9%，较6月高点下跌33%。
该基金投资于为人工智能提供动力的存储芯片，约75%的仓位集中在 Micron、Samsung 和 SK Hynix 等公司。现在，如果要谈蓬勃发展的企业，正是这些公司在推动这一切。
Micron 报告季度营收542亿美元，毛利率87%。SK Hynix 公布了创纪录的利润，并表示其存储供应到2029年几乎已售罄。Samsung 也公布了约800亿美元的创纪录营业利润。
那么，为什么这只基金现在下跌？存储价格仍在上涨，但速度正在放缓。DRAM 价格在第二季度上涨约80%，第三季度上涨40%，预计第四季度仅上涨10%至15%。投资者担心，尽管需求创纪录且波动极大，存储周期可能已经见顶。
韩国芯片股本月出现巨大波动，而 Micron 的分析师仍预计上涨约45%至65%。所以，对于这只基金，我持有它，但每当出现足够大的下跌时我也会买入。这是我在人工智能领域最大胆的投资，它在我整个投资组合中占比较小，因为风险非常高，也因为我在践行我告诉你们要这样构建投资组合的建议。
但我相信这一点，当看到不合逻辑的下跌时，我会继续加仓。
Next up is actually an exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Roundhill Memory ETF DRAM, which is trading today at around $54, up about 95% since its launch in April, but down 9% last month and 33% from its June high.
This fund invests in memory chips that power artificial intelligence, with a concentration of approximately 75% in companies such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix. Now, if you want to talk about thriving businesses, these are the companies that are making it happen.
Micron reported $54.2 billion in quarterly revenue with a gross profit margin of 87%. SK Hynix posted record profits and says its memory supply is virtually sold out through 2029.
Samsung also posted record operating profits of around $80 billion. So why is this fund declining now? Memory prices are still rising, but the pace is slowing down. DRAM prices rose by about 80% in the second quarter, 40% in the third, and are expected to rise by only 10 to 15% in the fourth quarter.
Investors are concerned that the memory cycle may have peaked despite record demand and extreme volatility. Korean chip stocks have seen huge swings this month, while Micron analysts still expect a rise of around 45 to 65%.
So, for this fund, I'm holding onto it, but I also buy whenever we see drops that are big enough. This is my most daring investment in artificial intelligence, and it is a relatively small part of my entire investment portfolio because the risks are very high, and because I am practicing what I preach when I tell you to build your portfolios this way.
But I believe in this, and I will continue to add when I see illogical drops.
这个频道对 $DRAM 的历次判断
Investing Simplified - Professor G 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。