Darden为卖出标的；尽管销售和回报强劲，其估值相对业绩表现仍过高。
逐段跳播
各位，我们最后一个卖出建议来自Morning Star，针对的是Darden，这家公司旗下拥有Olive Garden和Longhorn Steakhouse等高端连锁餐厅。
Folks, our final sell recommendation comes from Morning Star regarding Darden, the company that owns upscale restaurant chains like Olive Garden and Longhorn Steakhouse.
它上个季度相当强劲，销售额增长近14%，而Longhorn表现极为出色，同店销售额增长9.5%。记住，同店销售额指的是开业至少一年的门店。当经营已久的门店销售额大幅上升时，这一点很有帮助。
Its last quarter was pretty strong, with sales up nearly 14%, and Longhorn was absolutely brilliant, with comparable sales up 9.5 %. Remember, comparable sales are for stores that have been in business for at least a year.
This helps a lot when sales at long-established stores are rising significantly.
现在，先提醒一下：销售额的大幅跃升是由日历上多出的一周推动的。这种情况有时会发生在公司身上。那么，它为什么被列入“回避”名单？还记得那个教训吗？Kava是谁？这里也是一样。他们认为股价相对于公司业绩已经涨得太高了。
Now, quick heads-up: the big jump in sales was fueled by an extra week on the calendar. This happens with companies sometimes. So, why is it on the "avoid" list? Well, remember the lesson learned?
Who's Kava? Same thing here. They think the price has gone way up relative to the company's performance.
现在，好的一面是Darden规模庞大。仅Olive Garden这一连锁品牌每年就创造超过50亿美元的收入。这种巨大的规模让它在食品、广告和技术方面拥有小型餐厅无法匹敌的成本优势。
Now, the upside is that Darden is huge. The Olive Garden chain alone generates over $5 billion a year. That massive scale gives it cost advantages in food, advertising, and technology that smaller restaurants can't match.
不利的一面是，当预算紧张时，家庭最先削减的就是全服务餐厅的开支。而Darden的一些高端品牌已经在放缓，高端餐饮销售额仅增长1%，利润率也在萎缩。
The downside is that full-service restaurants are the first thing families cut back on when budgets are tight. And some of Darden's upscale brands are already slowing down, with fine-dining sales up barely 1% and profit margins shrinking.
那么，我们做最后一个要点总结。各位，这是一家市值230亿美元、企业价值330亿美元的公司。再说一次，大约有100亿美元的债务。而自由现金流每年只有11亿美元。所以，这家公司债务负担沉重。
So, let's do one last takeaway. Guys, it's a $23 billion company with a $ 33 billion enterprise value . Again, there's roughly $10 billion in debt. And free cash flow is only $1.1 billion a year. So, this company is loaded with debt.
但资本回报率不错，过去五年年均12%，过去十年为13.5%。利润率方面，它稳定在9%。十年平均为8%，但我总觉得新冠疫情那一年的影响显著拉低了这一数字。
But the return on capital is good, averaging 12% annually over the past five years and 13.5% over the past ten years. Profit margin It's holding steady at 9%. The 10-year average is 8%, but something tells me that the impact of the COVID year has significantly affected that figure.
各位，他们消耗了超过一半的现金流来支付7亿美元的股息。他们的市盈率和自由现金流倍数也都在20倍左右。那么，我们来看看这八大支柱。好的。债务水平偏高。五年自由现金流率也偏高。除此之外，他们在其他所有方面都有正面的估值。
And guys, they're consuming more than half of their cash flow to pay out $700 million in dividends. They're also trading at around 20 times earnings and free cash flow. So, let's look at the eight pillars.
Okay. Debt levels are high. And the five-year free cash flow rate is also high. Apart from that, they have positive valuations in every other area.
记住，收入增长之所以巨大，是因为他们从五年前的新冠疫情中复苏了。所以自那以后收入出现了显著跃升。我们来看看分析师怎么说。哇，不过。我其实对此感到意外。未来三年每股收益预计在11.30美元到14.40美元之间。
Remember, revenue growth is huge because they recovered from the COVID pandemic five years ago. So, there's been a significant jump in revenue since then . Let's see what the analysts are saying.
Wow, though. I'm actually surprised by this. Earnings are expected to range between $11.30 and $14.40 per share over the next three years.
收入增长看起来合乎逻辑，大约每年6%。开新店加上整体销售增长，完全说得通。
Revenue growth seems logical, at around 6% annually. Opening new stores and overall sales growth makes perfect sense .
我们来运行一下我们的股票分析工具。我以前从未分析过“Darden”。好的各位，这是我对过去10年的分析。它采用了3%、5%和7%的收入增长率。盈利和自由现金流采用的增长率是8.5%、9%和9.5%。我使用的市盈率（P/E）为16、19和22。
Let's run our stock analysis tool. I have never analyzed "Darden" before. Okay guys, this is my analysis for the last 10 years. It adopted revenue growth rates of 3, 5, and 7%.
Earnings and free cash flows were adopted at rates of 8.5%, 9%, and 9.5%. I used a price-to-earnings ( P/E) ratio of 16, 19, and 22.
我喜欢看到这里资本回报率不断上升。他们在资金管理方面越来越出色。最后，我的目标回报率是9.5%。现在，在结束我们对Darden的分析之前，想想SanDisk，它的收入增长了372%。这正是那种会让人以错误价格抢购的情况。
I like to see the increasing returns on capital here. They are increasingly better at managing their money. Finally, my target return is 9.5%. Now, before we finish our analysis of Darden, consider SanDisk with its revenues up by 372%.
This is exactly the kind of thing that makes people rush to buy at the wrong price.
这个频道对 $DRI 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。