DUOL 的看多逻辑建立在具吸引力的估值（约 18 倍市盈率）与持续改善的基本面（DAU 增长、内容扩张）之上，尽管预订量增速放缓；该股已积累动能（6 个月上涨 66%）。
逐段跳播
过去一年左右，我比较逆向的一笔投资其实是 Dualingo。这是第四只股票。如果管理层能够做到他们认为能够做到的、把业务扭转过来，那么现在的估值相当有吸引力。你可以看到，过去一年这只股票确实很挣扎，下跌了约 56%。
但让我们看看过去 3 个月，上涨了约 18.5%。6 个月上涨 66%，业务开始有了一些动能。
One of my more contrarian plays of the last year or so is actually Dualingo. That is stock number four. This is a pretty compelling valuation if they're able to do what management thinks they're going to be able to do in turning the business around.
You can see that over the past year stock has really struggled down about 56%. But let's look at over the past 3 months up about 18.5%. 6 months up 66% starting to get some momentum in the business.
所以，今年早些时候以及 2025 年晚些时候，我肯定是在对我的 Dualingo 持仓进行定投，但现在市盈率只有约 18 倍。市自由现金流比率差不多，约 17 倍，而过去一年营收增长仍然超过 29%。
所以，一只跌了这么多的股票，营收仍然增长 29%。
So, I was definitely dollar cost averaging earlier this year and later in 2025 with my position in Dualingo, but the price earnings multiple now only about 18. Price to free cash flow is about the same about 17 and revenue growth still over the past year up 29%. So, a stock that's down that much still up 29%.
但以下是投资者担心的地方。增长率在放缓，在减速。这是投资者从来都不喜欢看到的。如果你看季度数据，最近一个季度，也就是 2026 年第二季度，你看到的不是 18% 的同比增长。这就是投资者担心的地方。我认为你必须理解这项业务未来要走向哪里。
But here's what investors are worried about. The growth rate is slowing, is decelerating. This is not something that investors ever like to see. And if you look at the quarterly numbers, you're not looking at just 18% year-over-year growth in the most recent quarter, the second quarter of 2026.
This is what investors are worried about. This is where I think you have to understand where the business is going in the future.
所以，投资者最近关注的一件事是预订量（bookings）的情况。预订量有所放缓。原因是什么？管理层一直更专注于参与度，而不是把业务变现。他们每个季度给出三个指标：月活跃用户、日活跃用户，然后是付费订阅用户。
所以，挑战一直出在月活跃用户这个数字上。它有点波动，但过去它一直是一路向右上走的。每个季度他们都会增加更多月活跃用户。但自 2025 年 3 月那个季度以来就不是这样了。所以，大约有一年时间，情况有所放缓，在这里来回震荡。
但你可以看到情况有所回升。他们在最近一个季度实际上增加了约 300 万月活跃用户。那是在前一个季度增加超过 400 万之后。所以至少目前来看，情况似乎在朝正确的方向走。
So, one of the things that investors were looking at recently is what's going on with bookings. Well, bookings have slowed a little bit. What is the reason for that? Well, management has been much more focused on engagement than they have on monetizing the business.
So, there's three metrics that they give each quarter. the monthly active users, the daily active users, and then the paid subscribers. So, the challenge has been with this monthly active user number.
So, been a little bit volatile, but it used to go just up and to the right. Every single quarter, they would add more monthly active users. That hasn't been the case since about the March 2025 quarter.
So, about a year that things kind of slowed down, kind of bumped around here. But, you can see that things picked up. They actually added about 3 million monthly active users in the most recent quarter.
That was after adding more than 4 million in the quarter before. So things at least for now look like they're moving in the right direction.
但如果你看日活跃用户，这要令人鼓舞得多。这才是你想看到的。你想看到人们每天都在使用 Dualingo。这类高参与度的用户最终会为 Dualingo 付费。所以日活跃用户一路向右上走。
这正是我们想看到的。最终这会传导到付费用户。你可以看到这个增长有所放缓，但我认为未来我们会看到日活跃用户转化为付费用户之间存在一定的滞后。我认为我之前展示的营收增长最终会在这里扭转，你最终将能够以 20% 以上、也许 30% 以上的速度复利增长。
But if you look at daily active users, this is much more encouraging. And this is what you want to see. You want to see people using Dualingo on a daily basis. Those are the kind of engaged people that are going to eventually pay for Dualingo.
So daily active users going up and to the right. That's what we want to see. Eventually that's going to make its way to the paid users. You can see that this growth slowed a little bit, but I think we're going to see just a drag between those daily active users becoming monetized users in the future.
That's where I think that revenue growth that I showed earlier is eventually going to turn around and you're going to eventually be going to be able to compound this at 20 plus maybe 30 plus%.
有几个理由让人真正喜欢他们正在做的事。他们在增加更多种类的内容，所以是更多模块，而且不只是语言。你现在可以做数学，你现在可以下国际象棋。我认为他们能够把这一产品组合搭建起来，为人们提供多得多的价值。
他们还能在很多不同方面运用 AI。不仅是更快地推出产品，还让产品互动性强得多。我实际上走下楼，听到我女儿在跟 Dualingo 说话。我们甚至都不为 Dualingo 付费，但这是一个你现在即使在免费版上也能与那些 AI 工具互动的产品。
这会把多得多的人、多得多的家庭推向付费层级，能够以很多不同的方式变现。
Couple of reasons to really like what they're doing. They're adding more kinds of content, so more modules and not just in languages. You can now do math. You can now do chess.
I think they're going to be able to build out that portfolio, give much more value to people. They've also been able to use AI in a lot of different ways. Not only launching products more quickly, but also making them much more interactive.
I actually walked downstairs and heard my daughter talking to Dualingo. We don't even pay for Dualingo, but this is a product that you can now interact with those AI tools even on a free version right now.
That's going to push much many more people, many more families into paid tiers, be able to monetize in lots of different ways.
我看好 Dualingo 的未来。这是一只波动很大的股票，但你可以看到，过去 6 个月，市场开始看到他们那个扭转计划——他们在 2025 年可能把变现推得有点太过了。这在 2026 年已经改变。
但你看他们 2028、2029 年的目标。我认为这仍然是一只非常好的成长股，也是一家今天估值相当有吸引力的公司。
I'd like the future for Dolingo. It's a volatile stock, but you can see over the past 6 months, the market is starting to see that this turnaround plan that they've got where they kind of maybe push that monetization a little bit too far in 2025.
That's changed in 2026. But you look at their goals for 2028, 2029. I think this is still a really good growth stock and a company that's trading at a pretty compelling valuation today.
这个频道对 $DUOL 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。