$DUOL · Joseph Carlson After Hours · 2026-11-04
DUOL 是说话者喜欢的一笔小仓位，他认为其内在价值更高：日活跃用户增长 29% 至 6,490 万，上季度加速增长约 600 万；付费订阅用户增长 14% 至 1,310 万并加速增长，预订量超出预期。他表示对 AI 颠覆的担忧是错的；Max 停售以及 Super 中无限视频通话改善了产品，但短期内可能影响预订量。80 亿美元市值使其波动较大，但财报后 32% 的涨幅反映了基本面。
逐段跳播
我们还有 Dualingo，它昨天公布了财报。我会详细讲一下。但这只股票当天惊人地上涨了35%。Dualingo 正在大幅反弹。
We also have Dualingo which reported its earnings yesterday. I'll be going over that. But the stock is up a staggering 35% on the day. Dualingo is having a massive recovery.
昨天刚发布财报、目前上涨32%的一家公司是Dualingo。Dualingo在我的投资组合中是一个较小的仓位，只占大约2.7%。所以这并不是一个决定我投资组合生死存亡的巨额押注，但它曾是一只让我感到兴奋的股票。
我相信Dualingo有很大的潜力。今天之后，这只股票在一个4.1万美元的仓位上只亏了5600美元，下跌约15%。Duelingo正在从低点经历一轮惊人的复苏。看这里的价格图，Dolingo从180美元一路跌到每股90美元，随后开始快速回升，涨到150美元，然后又回落。
而经过今天的交易，它又回到了170美元左右，几乎回到年初至今持平的水平。目前它今年下跌3.6%。单日上涨32%对一只股票来说是很大的涨幅，但我们必须把它放在背景中看。Dualingo不是一只典型的股票，它是一家市值较小的公司，市值只有80亿美元。
我们打交道的很多公司，比如Mastercard、Amazon和Google，市值都是万亿美元级别。所以推动这些公司的市值变化更困难，也需要更多资金，而像Duolingo这样的公司则不然。
Duelingo市值只有80亿美元，情况可以变化得很快。如果公司开始表现良好，市值可能翻倍。这是一家情况可以迅速改善的公司。如果公司表现不佳、市场情绪转差，市值也可能很快被砍掉一半。
这正是我们在过去一年里看到的。所以这是一个高度波动的公司。如果你一直关注Duolingo或投资了这家公司，你会看到它每天上下波动大约5%。但今天是股价的大幅上涨，它显示出叙事和情况可以变化得多快。
所以Dolingo股票今天大涨，公司表现良好，从基本面来看实际上表现相当不错。从内在来看，公司做得确实相当好。这就是投资者当天反应如此强烈积极的原因。例如，日活跃用户从5050万增长到6490万，同比增长29%。
所以它的日活跃用户同比增长了29%。仅在上个季度，用户增长就加速了。上一季度日活跃用户是5870万，现在达到6490万日活跃用户。所以Dualingo仅在过去3个月就新增了600万日活跃用户，是在其本已庞大的日活跃用户基础上进一步增加的。
这告诉你几件事。其中之一是它仍在增长。Dualingo仍在增长，而且从平台使用人数来看，增长速度还加快了。这也告诉你，那些说AI正在颠覆Dualingo、说它永远无法竞争的人，他们说人们只会去用ChatgBT或Muse或Anthropic。
你看，我可以快速做出一个语言应用，我可以用vibe coding写出来。看，我在Anthropic里输入“build a Dualingo clone”，这不就一样吗？错。这不一样。
这就是为什么人们不用你vibe coding出来的语言学习应用，而是用Dualingo。你看，这些想法的问在于它们根本不切实际。没有人真的想从零开始做一个庞大的语言学习应用，包含成千上万、数以万计的结构化课程。
没有人想去做阶梯和排名系统以及连续打卡。没有人真的愿意费力气去做出留存率，让它有角色，有你在使用过程中逐渐熟悉、可以对话的角色。没有人愿意去完善所有让Duolingo运转得如此出色的细小之处。
没有那些边缘情况、那些精细调校，就不足以与这家公司竞争。那些说AI会轻易取代它的人，一直都错了。而在数据上他们又错了。AI增强了Duolingo快速创建课程结构的能力。他们的用户增长在日活跃用户和月活跃用户两个口径上都加快了。
现在，有很多人喜欢看Duolingo下跌。坦白说，他们喜欢看我失败。有些人从中获得乐趣。我知道不是所有人。有些人喜欢看别人成功，也有些人喜欢看别人失败，这让他们对自己感觉更好。
如果Joseph在某件事上失败了，那至少，你可以因为自己没有以那种方式失败而感觉好一些。有些人从看别人失败、看别人亏钱中获得快乐，因为这让他们对自己感觉更好。这在Duolingo上表现得很明显。
这是人们最喜欢看我失败的一只股票，超过任何其他股票。他们喜欢看它下跌。很多人兴高采烈地在Duolingo的坟头上跳舞。所以，对一些人来说，看到这只股票重新上涨是件难受的事。对他们来说这几乎是令人沮丧的。
他们看着它，说：“不，那本该是一笔失败的投资。那只股票本该表现糟糕，但它没有。Dualingo表现很好。”即使看业务本身，其他指标也表现良好。付费订阅用户增长了14%，达到1310万。
本季度实际上还加速了。所以，他们不仅在月活用户上增长，而且还在把这些月活用户转化为日活跃用户。你可以在这里看到这种转化。这是日活跃用户占月活跃用户的百分比，它在随时间增长。然后，日活跃用户足够喜欢这个产品，其中许多人升级到付费订阅，以去除广告并获得额外功能。
这就是付费订阅增长14%的来源。这是一个稳健的转化循环。Dualingo有免费产品，它把很多人吸引进来。其中许多人至少每月使用一次产品。然后随着他们获得连续打卡并开始更享受它，他们开始每天都用。
而如果他们用得足够久，很多人会直接预付一整年。这就是你看到付费订阅和预订量增长的地方。这两项都超出了预期。Dualingo的财务指标看起来非常稳健。用户增长和参与度看起来非常稳健，产品改进也很棒。
Dualingo正在变得更好。如果你过去一年左右没用过它，再试一次。它明显好多了。例如，Dualingo过去有两个付费档位。他们有Super，是升级档，然后有Max，是Super之上的升级档。
Max有点贵，它有视频通话功能，可以无限次视频通话。他们正在停用Max档位，直接取消它，并把无限视频通话放进Super，让它更易获得、覆盖更广，为他们最大的档位带来更多价值。这可能在短期内影响预订量，但这让产品好得多，也给很多人一个更大的升级理由。
视频通话功能异常出色。在互动视频通话中练习学习语言，比只是填空造句要好得多。所以这是一项重大的产品改进，公司的产品确实在变好。与此同时，Dualingo拥有出色的资产负债表。这只股票每个季度都在持续增加现金。
同时，现在利率更高，他们可以直接靠利息赚钱。这让他们处于非常灵活的位置，如果需要可以进行收购或回购。这相当于他们市值的10%以上的现金。总的来说，我喜欢我在Duelingo看到的东西。
我看到了巨大的进步。我认为这家公司从内在来看价值更高。当然，我喜欢看到这样的股票，那些股价史诗级下跌的股票。它们大幅下跌，所有人都把它们当作死掉了。很多人把它们当作市场上最糟糕的例子、史上最糟糕的选股，然后它们突然出现这些大幅反弹，因为数据实际上显示它们表现相当不错。
我以前经历过很多次。我相信未来还会发生。这只是又一个例子。
Now, one company that reported earnings just yesterday and is now currently up 32% is Dualingo. Dualingo is a smaller position in my portfolio. It only makes up around uh 2.7%.
So, this isn't some gargantuan bet that my portfolio lives or dies by, but it was a stock that I was excited about. Dualingo, I believe, has a lot of potential. Now, after today, the stock is only down $5,600 on a $41,000 position, down about 15%.
Duelingo is going through an incredible recovery from its lows. If we look at the price chart here, Dolingo fell from $180 all the way down to $90 per share. It started to recover rapidly.
It went up to $150, then it traded back down. And with today's trade, it's back up to around 170, working its way back almost flat year to date. Right now, it's currently down 3.6% on the year.
Gaining 32% is a big day on a stock, but we have to put this in context. Dualingo is not a typical stock. It's a company that has a small market cap. It's only $8 billion. With a lot of companies we're dealing with, the Mastercards and Amazons and Google's, those have trillion dollar market caps.
So, it's more difficult and it requires more money to move those market caps than it does a company like Duolingo. Duelingo with only an $8 billion market cap, well, things can change quickly.
If the company starts doing well, the market cap could double. It's a company where things can improve rapidly. If the company does poorly and sentiment goes south, the market cap can quickly be chopped in half.
That's what we saw over the past year. So, this is a situation of a highly volatile company. And if you've been following Duolingo or invested in this company, you'll see the trade up and down every single day is around 5%.
But today is a massive increase in share price and it shows how quickly the narrative and things can change. So Dolingo stock is up big today and the company's doing well. It's actually performing well fundamentally speaking.
Intrinsically the company's doing really quite well. That is the reason that investors are having such a strong positive reaction on the day. For example, the daily active users went from 50.5 million to 64.9 million year-over-year, a 29% increase.
So, it gained 29% daily active users year-over-year. In the last quarter alone, the user growth accelerated. It went from the previous quarter being 58.7 million daily active users now to 64.9 daily active users.
So, Dualingo added on 6 million daily active users in the past 3 months alone, incrementally on top of their already large daily active user user base. And what this tells you is a couple things.
One of them is that it's still growing. Dualingo is still growing and the rate of growth has increased in terms of the people using the platform. It also tells you that the people that were talking about how AI is disrupting Dualingo, how it will never be able to compete, they said that people are just going to go to ChatgBT or Muse or Anthropic.
And look, I can spin up a language app. I can vibe code it. Look, I typed build a Dualingo uh clone in in Anthropic. That's just the same, right? Wrong. It's not the same. And that's the reason that people aren't using your vibecoded language learning app. and instead they're using Dualingo.
You see, the issue with these thoughts are they're just not practical. Nobody really wants to start a massive language learning app with thousands of lessons, tens of thousands of lessons in structured format.
Nobody wants to create ladders and ranking systems and streaks. Nobody really wants to go through the effort of making so it has retention where it has characters, characters that you get to know over time and you can talk with.
Nobody wants to perfect all the small things that make Duolingo work as well as it works. Without all those little edge cases, all that fine-tuning, it's not enough to compete with this company.
The people that have talked about how AI will easily replace this have just been wrong. And they're wrong again in the numbers. AI has enhanced Duolingo's ability to create course structure rapidly.
Their user growth has sped up both on a daily active user basis and a monthly active user basis. Now, there's many people that enjoyed Duolingo going down. Frankly, they liked seeing me fail.
They There's some people that get joy out of that. I know it's not everybody. Some people like seeing other people succeed. There's some people that like seeing other people fail.
Makes them feel better about themselves. If Joseph fails at something, then at least uh you know, at least you can feel better that you didn't fail in that way. There's some people that find joy in watching other people fail, watching other people lose money because it makes them feel better about themselves.
And that was apparent with Duolingo. This is a stock more than any that people enjoyed watching me fail with. They they enjoyed watching it go down. Many people danced on the grave of Duolingo with a lot of glee.
So, it's a hard thing for some people to see this stock going back up. It's almost like it's frustrating for them. They're looking at it and they're going, "No, that's supposed to be a failed investment.
That one was supposed to do poorly and it's not. Dualingo is doing well." Even looking at the business, the other metrics are doing well. paid subscribers grew by 14% up to 13.1 million.
It actually accelerated this quarter. So, not only are they growing in their monthly users, but they're also converting those monthly users to daily active users. You can see that conversion going on here.
This is the percentage of their daily active users that make up monthly active users and it's growing over time. Then the daily active users like the product enough that many of them upgrade to a paid subscription to get rid of the ads and have additional additional features.
That's where you get the paid subscriptions growing by 14%. This is a solid conversion cycle. Dualingo has a free product. It gets a lot of people in the door. Many of them use the product at least once a month.
Then they start to use it every single day as they get the streak and they start enjoying it more. And then if they use it for long enough, a lot of them will just pay for a year in advance.
That's where you see the paid subscribers and the bookings growing. Both of these came in above estimates. The financial metrics of Dualingo look very solid. The user growth and engagement look very solid and the product improvements are also great.
Dualingo is getting better. If you haven't used it in the past year or so, try it out again. It is dramatically better. For example, Dualingo used to have two paid tiers. They had super, which was the upgrade, and then they have the Max, which is the upgrade above Super.
Max was kind of expensive, and it had features like the video call feature. You could have unlimited video calls. They're sunsetting the max tier. They're just getting rid of it and they're putting unlimited video calls in super, making it more accessible, more broad, bringing more value to their biggest tier.
This may affect bookings in the short term, but this makes the product much better and gives a lot of people a bigger reason to upgrade. The video calling is exceptionally good.
You can practice learning languages much better in an interactive video call than you can just filling out a sentence. So, this is a major product improvement. the company's product is actually getting better.
And while that's going on, we have Dualingo with an exceptional balance sheet. The stock continues to gain cash every single quarter. In the meantime, they can just make money with interest now that interest rates are higher.
But this puts them in a very flexible position to do acquisitions or buybacks if they need. This is over 10% of their market cap in cash. So overall, I like what I see with Duelingo.
I see great progress. I think the company intrinsically is worth more. And of course, I love seeing stocks like this, ones that have epic falls in stock price. They go down dramatically.
Everybody counts them as dead. Many people pointing to them as the the worst examples in the market, the worst stock picks ever, and they all of a sudden have these big resurgences as the numbers actually show that they're doing quite well.
I've been through this before many times. I'm sure it will happen in the future. This is just another example.
这个频道对 $DUOL 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。