ESRT：写字楼组合出租率约95%，租金已连续20个季度上涨，按经营现金流计算仅六倍估值；但上季度天文台收入下降约30%，净营运收入近乎腰斩，原因是国际旅游疲软以及新增竞争观景台；债务对EBITDA为6.6，可见度有限。他目前继续持有。
逐段跳播
他说，你持有Empire State Realty Trust，代码是ESRT，和我一样。说它的表现糟糕都算是轻描淡写。业绩不佳背后的主要原因是什么？按当前价格，你会把它归类为买入、持有还是卖出？
He says, you own the Empire State Realty Trust, and its symbol is ESRT, just like me . It would be an understatement to say the performance was terrible. What is the main reason behind the poor results and would you classify it as a buy, hold, or sell at its current price?
是的，首先，这是一只房地产投资信托，拥有帝国大厦，以及一个主要由纽约市写字楼物业组成的投资组合。他们也有一些住宅物业，但大多数是写字楼。
Yes, well, first and foremost, this is a real estate investment trust that owns the Empire State Building and a portfolio that mostly consists of office properties in New York City.
They have some residential properties, but the majority are offices.
简短的回答是，这只基金与其他写字楼房地产投资信托的主要区别在于帝国大厦顶部的观景台。他们不是把它租出去；他们拥有它，并从中赚钱。
The short answer is that the main difference between this fund and other office real estate investment trusts is the observation deck atop the Empire State Building. They don't rent them out; they own them and make money from them.
国际旅游业的整体下滑严重冲击了观景平台。竞争也在加剧。过去两年里，多座高层建筑新开了好几个观景平台。因此，观景平台上个季度收入下降了约30%，净营业收入下降了近一半。这是他们的主要利润来源。这是他们业务中最赚钱的部分。
The overall decline in international tourism has severely impacted the monitoring platform. There is also an increase in competition. Several new observation platforms have been opened in high-rise buildings over the past two years.
Therefore, the monitoring platform's revenue decreased by approximately 30% in the last quarter, and net operating income decreased by almost half. This is their main source of profit.
This is the most profitable part of their business.
所以，写字楼业务这部分进展顺利。我买入时，我的论点恰恰相反。我的论点是，由于混合办公和远程办公，写字楼市场可能持续疲软，但他们刚刚投入大量资金的观景平台将提供高利润率的现金流，并使其相对于其他写字楼基金具有优势。
So, the office work part is going well. When I bought it, my thesis was the exact opposite . My thesis was that the office market might remain weak due to hybrid and remote work , but the monitoring platform, into which they had just invested a lot of money, would provide high-margin cash flow and give it an edge over other office funds.
因此，写字楼投资组合的出租率约为95%。这高于一年前的约93%。该公司已连续20个季度在新租约中实现更高的租金水平。
Therefore, the office portfolio is approximately 95% leased . This is up from approximately 93% a year ago. The company has achieved higher rental rates in new leases for 20 consecutive quarters.
然后，当然，还有利率因素。如果你看几乎任何一只房地产投资信托，你会发现它近来都低于面值。嗯，这在很大一部分板块中都是典型现象，受利率、债务困难以及诸如此类因素的影响。
Then, of course, there is the factor of interest rates. If you look at almost any real estate investment trust , you'll find it's been below par lately. Well, this was typical for a large part of the sector, between interest rates, debt difficulties, and all that stuff.
按今天的价格，我们应该买入、卖出还是持有Empire State Realty Trust的股票？是的，我继续持有这只股票。我们不提供个人建议，但至少目前我会自己继续持有。
Should we buy, sell, or hold Empire State Realty Trust shares at today's prices? Yes, I am holding onto the stock . We don't offer personal advice, but I'm keeping it to myself for the time being at least.
该股的交易价格是运营产生现金的六倍，也就是房地产版的盈利。即使根据观景平台的预测进行调整后，这只股票仍然非常赚钱。直到2028年都没有债务到期。这是一个与国际旅游业相关的周期性问题。
The stock trades at six times the money generated from operations, which is the real estate version of earnings. Even after adjusting based on the monitoring platform's forecasts , the stock is still very profitable.
There are no debt maturities until 2028. It is a cyclical problem related to international tourism.
也有一些需要注意的地方，比如高负债率，其债务与EBITDA之比为6.6。对于一只房地产投资基金来说，这是非常高的比例。管理层特别表示，他们对观景台未来收入的可见性有限。所以，随着事情推进我会关注这一点，但暂时我会继续持有我的股票。
There are some caveats, such as the high debt ratio , where the debt-to-EBITDA ratio is 6.6. This is a very high percentage for a real estate investment fund. The administration specifically stated that it has limited visibility into the observatory's future revenues.
So, I will monitor that as we go forward , but I will hold onto my shares for the time being.
说实话，我很难觉得这有说服力。如果这只股票在过去一年里下跌了50%。如果——用Matt的话说——在写字楼板块整体表现不错的时候，股票的反应就是这样，那么我很难认为它是一个能持续长期跑赢市场的标的。
股息率不到3%，你需要很大的增长。我不会这么做。
To be honest, it's hard for me to find this convincing. If the stock fell by 50% during the past year. If this is how the stock reacts when—in Matt's words—the primary office sector is doing well , then it's hard for me to consider it a consistently long-term market outperformer.
With a dividend yield of less than three percent, you need a lot of growth. I will refrain from doing that.