FICO 是一个买入机会；尽管竞争加剧、风险评估上升，该股仍被低估，具有约 18% 的上行空间。
逐段跳播
我们收到了对 FICO（FICO）股票投资者来说不幸的消息：美国联邦住房金融局局长 Bill Pulte 宣布调整抵押贷款定价，为 FICO 引入竞争打开了大门。
We received some unfortunate news for FICO (FICO) stock investors, as the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bill Pulte, announced a change in mortgage pricing, opening the door to competition for FICO.
这一消息公布后，FICO 的股价立即下跌超过 26%。所以，我将和大家分享我如何更新对 FICO 股票的评估，以及我认为现在是该抛掉这只股票，还是它是一个买入机会？
This announcement caused FICO's stock to drop by more than 26% immediately after the news was released. So, I'm going to share with you how I update my assessment of FICO stock, and whether I think it's time to get rid of this stock or if it's a buying opportunity?
它在市场上几乎处于完全垄断地位，这使 FICO 得以持续提价，并实现非常丰厚的利润率。这一消息可能会影响这种垄断和这一地位，并最终影响 FICO 的定价能力。
It enjoyed a near-total monopoly in the market, which allowed FICO to continue raising prices and achieving very lucrative profit margins. This news could affect this monopoly and that position, and ultimately FICO's pricing power.
我认为重要的是要记住，市场此前已经预期 FICO 将开始失去其竞争优势。它的防御工事正在被侵蚀。在这条消息之前，FICO 的股价就已经大幅下跌了，不是吗？该股开盘价约为每股 1,600 美元，而在此次公告之前，其交易价约为每股 800 美元。它当时已经下跌了约 50%。
I think it's important to remember that the market was already expecting FICO to start losing its competitive advantage. Her defensive trench was eroding. FICO's stock had already fallen significantly before this news, hadn't it?
The stock opened at around $1,600 per share, and prior to this announcement it was trading at around $800 per share. It was already down by about 50%.
所以，此前就已经有讨论。有猜测，有预期，也认识到 FICO 正在失去这一竞争优势。它正在失去其在抵押贷款领域信用评级中的近乎垄断地位。
So, there was already a discussion. There was speculation, there was expectation and realization that FICO was losing that competitive advantage. It was losing its near-monopoly position in credit ratings within the mortgage sector.
如今，在这条消息之后，FICO 的股价自年初以来已下跌超过 63%。FICO 的股价此前已经处于多年来的最低估值，而这条令股价下跌 26% 的消息使其更加便宜。它目前的远期市盈率为 11.6。这是该股有史以来达到的最低价格。
Now, following this news, FICO's stock has fallen by more than 63% since the beginning of the year. FICO's stock was already trading at its lowest valuation in years, and this news, which sent the stock price down by 26%, made it even cheaper.
It is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 . This is the lowest price this stock has ever reached.
但 Vico 的情况并非如此。事实上，如果你看分析师的预测，跟踪 FICO 的华尔街分析师预计，该公司在本财年（截至 9 月）的营收将增长 28%，他们还预计截至 2027 年 9 月的财年将再增长 14%，并在截至 2028 年 9 月的财年再增长 12%。
But this is not the case for Vico. In fact, if you look at analyst estimates , Wall Street analysts who follow FICO expect the company's revenue to grow by 28% in the current fiscal year ending in September, and they also expect another 14% growth for the fiscal year ending in September 2027 , and an additional 12% growth in the fiscal year ending in September 2028.
因此，即使在这样的宏观经济背景下，最了解 FICO 的华尔街分析师仍预计该公司未来几年将实现强劲的两位数增长。
Therefore, even against this macroeconomic backdrop, Wall Street analysts closest to FICO estimate strong double-digit growth for the company over the next few years.
因此，我调整对 FICO 评估的方式是提高我的风险评估。我通过我的“beta”标准来做到这一点，我已将其上调至 1.75。
Therefore, the way I adjust my assessment of FICO is by increasing my risk assessment. And I do that through my standard for " beta", which I have raised to 1.75.
为了给这个数字提供背景，如果你看 FICO 基于其相对于标普 500 的 5 年月度平均价格波动得出的实际 beta，你会发现它是 1.32。因此，我将 1.32 这个数字上调至 1.75。
To put this number in context, if you look at FICO's actual beta based on its 5-year monthly average price movement relative to the S&P 500, you will find it at 1.32. Therefore, I adjusted this figure of 1.32 upwards to 1.75.
即使经过这一上调，FICO 股票似乎仍被低估，上涨潜力约为 18%。为了给你更多背景，如果你在我的模型中输入 1.32 的估计值，它将得出 FICO 股票的估计价格超过每股 1,045 美元，上涨潜力超过 69%。
Even after this upward adjustment, FICO stock appears to be undervalued with an upside potential of approximately 18%. To give you more context, if you enter an estimate of 1.32 into my model, it would result in an estimated price for FICO stock of over $1,045 per share with upside potential exceeding 69 %.
但我认为假设“beta”为 1.32 是不合理的，因为“beta”是一个向后看的指标，而“fico”过去的风险相比未来的风险要低得多。
But I don't think it's reasonable to assume a 1.32 measurement for "beta" because " beta" is a backward-looking measure , and past risks were much lower for " fico" compared to future risks.
因此，我认为分析师们今后提高对 FICO 的风险评估将是明智的，因为随着竞争加剧，形势正在发生变化。然而，即使考虑到这些事态发展而大幅上调、计入高风险之后，无论我是按市盈率衡量还是按贴现现金流衡量，FICO 股票似乎都被低估了。
Therefore, I think it would be wise for analysts to increase their risk assessment for FICO going forward because the dynamics are now changing with increased competition. However, even after accounting for the high risks with a significant upward adjustment in light of these developments, FICO stock appears to be undervalued whether I measure on a price-to-earnings ratio basis or on a discounted cash flow basis .
因此，我认为这次下跌对 FICO 股票的投资者来说是一个买入机会，但风险要高得多。关键因素在于这些营收预期是否被证明是正确的。如果公司继续实现两位数或接近两位数的营收增长，我认为这对长期投资者来说将是一个绝佳的买入机会。
Therefore, I believe this decline represents a buying opportunity for FICO stock investors, but the risks are much higher. The big factor will be whether these revenue estimates prove to be correct.
If the company continues to achieve double-digit or near-double-digit revenue growth, I believe this will be an exceptional buying opportunity for long-term investors.
然而，如果 FICO 开始出现竞争优势的侵蚀，导致营收增长崩塌、营收下滑甚至转为负增长，该股可能会成为投资者的价值陷阱。
However, if FICO begins to experience an erosion of its competitive advantage, leading to a collapse in revenue growth as its revenues decline and even turn negative, the stock could become a value trap for investors.
我认为这是一个机会。我相信该公司仍在实现强劲的营收增长，即便不是两位数，或许也是接近高个位数，而我认为这足以让长期投资者将其视为一个买入机会。
I think it's an opportunity. I believe the company is still achieving strong revenue growth, if not double digits, then perhaps a high single digit, and I think that is enough to consider it a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
因此，我今天，2026年9月29日，重新给予 Fair Isaac 股票“买入”评级。
Therefore, I have renewed my "buy" rating for Fair Isaac stock today, September 29, 2026
观察点
这个频道对 $FICO 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。