FICO因抵押贷款信用评分竞争下跌70%，并裁员15%；若竞争对手抢占份额，利润率可能收缩。但用户切换缓慢且风险高，因此若其护城河部分守住，股价可能已跌过头。回报率及15倍自由现金流支撑约1,021的中性情景估值，仅在中等/乐观假设下才看多。
逐段跳播
第二，支付和信用评分领域，比如PayPal，下跌了82%，还有FICO，下跌了70%，都是因为受到新竞争的惊吓。
Second, payments and credit scoring like PayPal, which is down 82% and FICO, which is down 70%, spooked by new competition.
而现在，最戏剧性的一个，FICO，也就是Fair Isaac，下跌了大约70%。各位，你们可能知道它那个著名的信用评分。那就是贷款机构用来决定你是否能拿到贷款、以及以什么利率拿到贷款的那个数字。
And now, the most dramatic one of all, FICO, Fair Isaac, down about 70%. Guys, you probably know its famous credit score. That's the number lenders use to decide whether you get a loan and at what rate.
几十年来，FICO的评分业务就是一台印钞机，利润率在90%左右。因为美国几乎每一笔按揭贷款都需要FICO评分。它曾是地球上最好的生意之一。
For decades, FICO scoring business was a money printing machine with profit margins around 90%. Because nearly every mortgage in America required a FICO score. It was one of the best businesses on the planet.
那为什么股价会突然崩盘？各位，规则刚刚变了。政府为一个叫Vantage Score的竞争对手打开了大门，让它进入按揭贷款市场竞争。而且已经有一家大型贷款机构Rocket Mortgage表示要改用它的评分。
So why the sudden collapse in stock price? Well, guys, the rules just changed. The government opened the door for a rival called Vantage Score to compete in the mortgage market.
And one huge lender, Rocket Mortgage, already said it's switching to it.
FICO甚至宣布要裁掉15%的员工。这就是看空逻辑，而且是一个很严肃的看空逻辑。
FICO even announced it's cutting 15% of its workforce. That's the bare case, and it is a serious one.
所以，如果真正的竞争开始抢走更多市场份额，那些高得离谱的利润率很可能会缩水。那看多逻辑是什么？要替换掉一个已经嵌入整个行业的信用评分，是一个缓慢、有风险且复杂的过程。FICO值得信赖，而且已经深深嵌入到借贷运作的方式之中。
So, if the real competition starts to take away more market share, those sky-high margins will likely shrink. But what's the bull case? Well, swapping out the credit score baked into an entire industry is a slow, risky, and complicated process.
FICO is trusted, and it's deeply wired into how lending works.
各位，如果竞争对手出现了，FICO还有那些高利润率。他们只需要大概稍微降一点价，仍然能赚很多钱。所以，如果它的护城河哪怕只是部分守得住，这只股票可能也跌得太多了。
And guys, if a competitor shows up, FICO has those high margins. All they need to do is probably lower their price a bit and they'd still make a lot of money. So if its moat even holds up partly, this stock may have fallen way too far.
那我们来分析一下。各位，这就是FICO。它是一家市值155亿美元的公司，企业价值215亿美元。也就是说，其中60亿美元基本上是它的债务。去年它赚了10亿美元的自由现金流。
So let's analyze it. So guys, here is FICO. It is a 15.5 billion company with $21.5 billion enterprise value. So that's $6 billion is essentially their debt. And they made a billion dollars in free cash flow last year.
令人惊讶的是，看看他们五年的平均值，650。所以去年他们赚的自由现金流多得多。这是一个很大的跃升。我想弄清楚这是为什么。
What's amazing is look at their 5year average, 650. So they made a lot more free cash flow last year. It was a big jump. I'm going to want to figure out why that is.
我们去看一下现金流量表，看看有没有什么一眼就能看出的直接原因，各位。看起来就是他们的净利润大幅跳升了。我们看看他们的净利润里有没有什么一次性的东西。我的意思是，看起来这些就是正常的，也许吧。
Let's go to our cash flow statement and see if there's an immediate reason that jumps out at me, guys. It just looks like their net income just jumped up a lot. Let's see if there's any one-time things to their net income.
I mean, things look like it was just legitimate, maybe.
好了，各位。看看这些资本回报率。过去五年是50%，去年一年是71%。它的售价是自由现金流的15倍，盈利的19倍。它的利润率在增长，10年利润率是26%，五年是30%，一年是34%，然后他们的毛利率是85%。
All right, guys. Look at these returns on capital. 50% for the last five years, 71% a year for the last year. It's selling for 15 times free cash flow, 19 times earnings. It's got growing profit margin, 10-year profit margin of 26%, fiveyear of 30%, one year of 34, and then their gross profit margin of 85%.
各位，看看这些，看看这些营收增长数字。过去10年每年增长10%，过去五年每年增长12%，过去三年增长17%。好，我们来看看这八大支柱。这就是我们喜欢看到的。我们看到六个打勾，包括回购股票，唯一的叉是五年市盈率和五年自由现金流价格比。
And guys, look at these look at these revenue growth numbers. 10% a year for the last 10 years, 12% a year for the last five, 17% for the last three. All right, let's go check out the eight pillars.
So, this is what we like seeing. We see six check marks buying back shares and the only X's are the five-year PE and 5-year price of free cash flow.
记住，仅仅因为那里有个叉，并不意味着它被高估了。如果他们能以非常高的回报率、高增长率来增长利润和自由现金流，这些可能根本不算什么。如果他们要让利润增长，比如说每年增长30%、持续10年，我们往极端了说，那这些就很便宜。
Now remember, just because there's an X there, does not mean it's overvalued. If they can grow their profit and free cash flow at a very high rate of return, high growth rate, these could be nothing.
If they're going to grow their profit, let's say 30% a year for 10 years, let's go to an extreme. Those are cheap.
问题是，他们能把利润增长多少？这就是我们在问的看空逻辑。这些竞争对手会让他们增长利润，还是会阻碍他们的利润增长？这就是我们在问的问题。
The question is, how much can they grow their profit? Well, that's the bare case we're asking about. Are these competitors going to allow them to grow their profit or will it impede their profit growth? That's the question we're asking.
我们来看看分析师是怎么想的。分析师认为他们的利润在未来三年将分别增长21%、8%和10%。这是很大的增长，各位。
Let's take a look at analysts and what they think. Well, analysts think their profit's going to grow 21,8 and 10% for the next three years. That's a lot of growth, guys.
这只股票目前是每股650美元。按每股83美元乘以20，就是1700美元的股价。如果他们真的能达到这些数字，从这些水平来看还有可能再翻三倍。营收增长分别是12.5%、9.5%、4.5%。
The stock's currently at uh $650 a share. At $83 a share times 20 is $1,700 stock. another potential triple from these levels if they actually hit these numbers. And revenue growth 12 and a half, nine and a half, four and a half percent.
那么，让我们打开股票分析工具，把数字算一算。各位，在我们10年的分析里，我原本用的是6%、9%和12%的营收增长。我现在其实要，我现在其实要把它稍微调低一点。我改成4%、7%和10%。
So, let's go to our stock analyzer tool and run the numbers. So, guys, our 10-year analysis, I originally did 6, 9, and 12% revenue growth. I'm actually going to de I'm actually going to decrease this a little bit. I'm going to go four, seven, and 10%.
接下来，我要把重点放在自由现金流上，因为它比利润率还高。我用了33%、38%和43%。所以同样，我要把利润率清零。
Next, I'm going to focus on their free cash flow here because it's higher than their profit margin. and I did 33, 38, and 43%. So again, I'm going to zero out the profit margin.
现在，市盈率和自由现金流价格、高资本回报率。是的，它们有竞争，但它们仍然是主导者。我仍然把10年后的市盈率和自由现金流价格倍数设为18、22和26。最后，是我的9.5%回报率。
Now, the PE and price of free cash flow, high returns on capital. Yes, they have competition, but they're still the dominant score. I'm still putting 18, 22, and 26 for my PE ratio and my price to free cash flow 10 years from now. And then finally, my 9.5% return.
点击分析按钮。往下滚。好了，各位。我的低价是618，高价是650美元，中间价是1,021。所以各位，对我来说，是的，在中间和高假设下这仍然是绿色的，但它不像其他那些从头到尾都是绿色，那是我最喜欢的。
Hit the analyze button. Scroll down. All right, guys. So I have a low price of 618, a high price of$,650, a middle price of 1,021. So guys, for me, yes, this is still green on the middle and high assumptions, but it's not like the other ones where there was like green all the way across, which I love the most.