FTNT 相对公允价值高估约 45%，建议等待价格回落后再买入。
逐段跳播
到2026年，Fortinet和Palo Alto Networks等公司的股价已上涨超过100%。Palo Alto Networks和Fortinet等网络安全公司在过去十年中已经实现了收入增长。
人工智能的普及为这一增长提供了额外的动力。可以看到，自2026年以来，收入增长曲线最近有所加速。
Shares of companies like Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks have risen by more than 100% by 2026. Cybersecurity companies like Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet have already seen revenue growth over the past decade.
The spread of artificial intelligence has served as additional fuel for this growth. You can see that the revenue growth curve has accelerated recently since 2026.
按过去十二个月的收入计算，Palo Alto Networks和Fortinet是规模最大的网络安全公司之一。
Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet are among the largest cybersecurity companies in terms of revenue over the past twelve months.
Fortinet也是如此，其收入在过去十年中也增长了近十倍，达到75亿美元。然而，在比较两家公司的经营盈利能力时，一个关键差异显现出来。从2026年以来的营业利润率来看，两家公司出现了分化，Palo Alto Networks的营业利润率下降，而Fortinet则达到了新的纪录水平。
The same applies to Fortinet, whose revenues have also increased nearly tenfold over the past decade to reach $7.5 billion. However, a key difference emerges when comparing the two companies in terms of operating profitability.
Looking at the operating profit margin since 2026, the two companies have diverged, with Palo Alto Networks' operating profit margin declining while Fortinet has achieved new record levels.
此外，Fortinet 的营业利润率显著高于 Palo Alto Networks 的营业利润率，并且在过去十年里一直如此。所以，这并非什么新鲜事。
Furthermore, Fortinet 's operating profit margin is significantly higher than Palo Alto Networks' operating profit margin, and has remained so throughout the past decade. So, this is nothing new.
Fortinet 的营业利润率达到了 32.3%，比 2017 年高出近六倍。当我们基于投资者的资本回报率来衡量这两家公司时，得到的盈利能力指标类似。Fortinet 的投入资本回报率非常出色，并且在过去四年的大部分时间里都维持在这一水平。
99.84% 的回报率非常出色，接近我目前跟踪的公司中的最佳水平。
Fortinet 's operating profit margin reached 32.3%, nearly six times higher than in 2017. We obtain a similar profitability index when we measure these two companies based on investors' return on capital.
Fortinet delivers excellent returns on invested capital, and has maintained this level for most of the past four years. A rate of 99.84% is excellent and close to the best rates among the companies I currently follow.
这种可持续性水平出现下降是很自然的。我不认为 Fortinet 在可预见的未来能够实现接近 100% 的投入资本回报率。不过，像 Fortinet 这样的公司可以达到接近 40% 的水平。
It is natural for this level of sustainability to decrease. I do not expect Fortinet to achieve returns on invested capital close to 100% in the foreseeable future. However, a company like Fortinet can achieve a rate close to 40%.
同样，Fortinet 的员工人均收入也有所增长，但 Palo Alto Networks 在这方面表现更优，尽管这两家公司的这些数字的增长率都非常出色。
Similarly, Fortinet also saw an increase in its revenue per employee, but Palo Alto Networks outperforms it in this aspect, although the growth rate of these numbers is excellent for both companies.
但在盈利能力方面，例如营业利润率和投入资本回报率，Fortinet 显著优于 Palo Alto Networks。
But when looking at profitability, such as operating profit margin and return on invested capital, Fortinet significantly outperformed Palo Alto Networks.
同样，Fortinet 的股价目前接近多年来的最高水平，为 46。请记住，网络安全股有望在 2026 年大幅上涨，Palo Alto 和 Fortinet 的股价预计将上涨超过 100%。
Similarly, Fortinet shares are trading near their highest level in years, at 46. Keep in mind that cybersecurity stocks are poised for a significant surge in 2026, with Palo Alto and Fortinet shares expected to rise by more than 100%.
我对此感到兴奋，因为多年来我一直看好网络安全行业。你听我说过，它是我近年来最看好的行业之一。因此，我很高兴看到该行业整体表现良好，Fortinet 和 Palo Alto Networks 也是如此，这两只股票多年来一直是我考虑的投资机会。
I am excited about this because I have been optimistic about the cybersecurity industry for many years. You have heard me describe it as one of the industries I have been most optimistic about in recent years.
Therefore, I am pleased to see the industry performing well overall, as well as Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks, two stocks I have considered investment opportunities for several years.
至于 Fortinet 的股票，我计算其公允价值为 97 美元。与其当前 176 美元的市场价格相比，它似乎被高估了约 45%。
As for Fortinet's stock, I calculated its fair value at $97. Compared to its current market price of $176, it appears to be overvalued by about 45%.
所以，估值确实已经大幅上升，预计股价将在 2026 年攀升。如果由我决定，我会推迟买入任何网络安全股，或者至少这两只，直到价格变得更具吸引力。
So, valuations have certainly risen considerably, with stock prices expected to climb in 2026. If it were up to me, I would postpone buying any cybersecurity stocks, or at least these two, until prices become more attractive.
不过，如果我必须在两者之间做出选择，并且必须现在选择一只买入，我会选择 Fortinet，因为它是估值最具吸引力的公司。其收入的快速增长令我印象深刻，利润率也达到了新的纪录水平。
However, if I had to choose between them, and if I had to choose one to buy now, I would choose Fortinet because it is the company with the most attractive valuation. I am impressed by the rapid growth of its revenues, with its profit margins reaching new record levels.
这个频道对 $FTNT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。