$FTNT · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-02
FTNT 仍维持持有：29% 的账单增长和 20% 的营收增长、创纪录的营业利润率和 111% 的 ROIC 表现强劲，不同于 Palo Alto 那种压缩利润率的增长；但下跌后 35 倍的前瞻市盈率，相对说话者 102 美元的 DCF 估值和 136 美元的股价仍略偏高，估值尚未跌到足以上调评级的程度。
逐段跳播
Fortinet 宣布总账单金额增长29%，总营收增长20%。我喜欢看到公司实现超过营收增长的账单增长，因为这说明它们的营收增长是可持续的，甚至可能还在加速。
Fortinet announced a 29% increase in total billing and a 20% increase in total revenue. I like to see companies achieve invoice growth that exceeds revenue growth, because that indicates that their revenue growth is sustainable and perhaps even accelerating.
管理层今年第三次上调了业绩预期；然而，即便有所有这些积极进展，Fortnite 的股价在公司公布财报后仍然大跌。
Management raised its forecasts for the third time this year; however, even after all these positive developments, Fortnite's stock price collapsed following the company's earnings announcement.
我认为，这是因为在这些季度财务业绩公布之前，股价已经大幅上涨了。记住，几年前我对网络安全板块持乐观态度。我曾把其中几只股票推荐为买入机会，包括 Fortinnet、Sentinel One、Octa 等。
I believe this is a result of the stock price already rising significantly before these quarterly financial results were released. Remember, I was optimistic about the cybersecurity sector a few years ago.
I have recommended several of these stocks as buying opportunities, including Fortinnet, Sentinel One, Octa, and others.
然而，两个月前，我下调了其中几家网络安全公司的评级，包括 Fortinet。我将其评级从“买入”下调至“持有”，表明投资者的热情已经过度。不是吗？
However, two months ago, I downgraded several of these cybersecurity companies, including Fortinet. It downgraded its rating from " buy" to "hold," indicating that investor enthusiasm had been overblown. Isn't that so?
投资者对代理和人工智能时代的网络安全需求过于兴奋了。我理解这会是件非常积极的事，但有些股票的股价已经上涨了三倍以上，包括 Fortinet。
Investors have been overly excited about cybersecurity needs in the age of proxies and artificial intelligence. I understand that this would be a very positive thing , but stock prices have risen by three figures in some cases, including Fortinet.
这就是为什么我认为，在看似相当强劲的季度财务业绩之后，股价反而下跌了。现在，投资者在问我这是否是逢低买入的机会，而这也是我想回答的问题：现在是时候把 Fortune 股票的评级再次上调至“买入”了吗？
That's why I think the stock price dropped after what felt like a fairly strong quarterly financial result . Now, investors are asking me if it's a buying opportunity on the dip, and that's the question I want answered: Is it time to upgrade Fortune stock to a "buy" rating again?
有意思的是，跟踪 Fortinet 的分析师下调了对该公司未来几年每股收益增长的预期。这些预期自今年年中以来一直在稳步上升，当时每股收益预期从12%上调至17%。在季度财务更新之后，分析师将预测下调至15.7%的增长。
Interestingly, analysts who follow Fortinet have lowered their estimates for the company's earnings per share growth over the next few years. Those estimates have been steadily rising since the middle of this year, when earnings per share estimates increased from 12% to 17%.
Following the quarterly financial update, analysts lowered their forecast to 15.7% growth.
我认为华尔街的分析师也意识到了我几个月前就意识到的事情，那就是预期被夸大了。因此，我很高兴看到其中一些公司，包括 Fortinet，在2026年上涨了三倍以上，这印证了我的感觉：这个板块早已蓄势待发，准备迎来大幅扩张。
I think analysts on Wall Street also realize what I realized a few months ago, which is that expectations were exaggerated. Therefore, I am pleased to see some of these companies, including Fortinet, rising by three figures here in 2026, reflecting my feeling that this sector was already poised for significant expansion .
Fortinet 不仅营收增长了约20%、账单金额增长了约30%，而且是在实现创纪录营业利润率的同时做到这一点的。
Fortinet not only increased its revenue by about 20% and raised its bills by about 30%, but achieved this while recording record operating margins.
过去十二个月，营业利润率已升至33%，而2017年约为4%。最近，Fortinet 能够在扩大利润率的同时加速营收增长，而 Palo Alto Networks 则不是这样，它实现了营收增长，但牺牲了利润率。
Operating margins have risen over the past twelve months to 33%, compared to about 4% in 2017. Recently, Fortinet has been able to accelerate revenue growth while expanding margins, which is not the case for Palo Alto Networks, which has achieved revenue growth but at the expense of profit margins.
Fortinet 的投资资本回报率也非常出色。出色到我认为这样的水平难以持续，但即便它从111%下降一半至50%，这个投资资本回报率仍然非常出色。
Fortinet's returns on invested capital are also excellent. It is so excellent that I do not think it is sustainable at these levels, but even if it were to drop by half from 111% to 50%, this return on invested capital would still be excellent.
Fortinet 的投资资本回报率为111%，在我跟踪的所有公司中名列前茅。这是因为它们不仅实现了创纪录的利润率水平，而且这个板块本身相对轻资产。维护、维持和开发这些产品并不需要太多资本支出或营运资金。
At 111%, Fortinet's return on invested capital is among the very best of all the companies I follow. This is because they are not only achieving record levels of profit margins, but also because the sector itself is relatively asset-light.
It does not require much in terms of capital expenditure or working capital to maintain, sustain and develop these products.
所以，当我们看估值时，你就能理解我为什么早些时候下调了该股票的评级。不是吗？几个月前我下调了评级，因为当时估值虽然对进入2026年来说非常有吸引力，远期市盈率在20到25倍之间，但如今已经翻了一倍多，远期市盈率超过50倍。
So, when we look at the valuation, you can understand why I lowered the stock's rating earlier. Isn't that so? A few months ago I downgraded it because the valuation, although very attractive going into 2026 when it was trading at a forward P/E ratio between 20 and 25, has more than doubled to a forward P/E ratio exceeding 50.
难道不是吗？我觉得这些超过40的评级被夸大了，过于乐观。
Isn't that right? I felt that these ratings, which exceeded 40, were exaggerated and overly optimistic.
现在，在财报公布后的下跌之后，Fortinet 股票的前瞻市盈率为35，我觉得这更合理。可以说它有点高估，但考虑到发票金额增长在加速、发票增长快于收入增长、营业利润率创纪录、投资资本回报率出色，以及人工智能的普及带动整个行业蓬勃发展，我认为它是合理的。
Now, following the decline that came after the earnings announcement, Fortinet stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 35, which I find more reasonable. You could say it's a bit overvalued, but I see it as reasonable given the accelerating growth of invoices, invoice growth that outpaces revenue growth, record operating margins , great returns on invested capital, and a sector booming as a result of the spread of artificial intelligence.
我还更新了对 Fortinet 的现金流折现估值，我给出的公司估值为102美元。当前市价即便在大幅下跌之后仍是136美元。因此，在计入安全边际之后，它看起来仍然略微高估。
I also updated the discounted cash flow estimates for Fortinet, and I valued the company at $102. The current market price, even after the significant drop, is $136. Therefore, it still seems slightly overvalued after including the safety margin.
可以说它被高估了。因此，我已将 Fortinet 的股票评级下调至“持有”，而且我仍然认为它是一个持有选项。估值还没有跌到足以支撑上调评级的程度，所以今天我重申对 Fortinet 股票的评级为“持有”。
You could say it's overrated. Therefore, I had downgraded Fortinet's stock rating to " hold," and I still believe it is a hold option . The valuation has not fallen enough to justify raising the rating, so today I will reiterate my rating of Fortinet stock at "hold".
这个频道对 $FTNT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。