$FTNT · Daniel Pronk · 2026-11-04
Fortinet 在当前价格下并不具吸引力：27 倍自由现金流对一家未来一年可能进一步放缓的业务而言仍然偏贵。营收增速为 20% 且正在放缓，第四季度指引仅隐含 17.8% 的增长，分析师预计到 2027 年底将低于 10%，因此财报前近 40 倍自由现金流的估值倍数正随放缓而收缩。
逐段跳播
有很多关于 ServiceNow、Intel，甚至 Fortinet 等股票在发布财报后大幅暴跌的消息。
There has been a lot of news about stocks like ServiceNow, Intel, and even Fortinet collapsing drastically after releasing their earnings reports.
Fortinet、ServiceNow，最后我们将以 Uber 结束讨论。
Fortinet, ServiceNow, and finally we will finish the discussion with Uber.
好，我们继续来讨论 Fortinet。过去一个月里，Fortinet 的股价较近期历史最高点下跌了35%。这是又一家在发布财报后遭遇大幅下跌的公司。
Okay, let's move on and discuss Fortinet. In the past month, Fortinet's stock has fallen 35 percent from its recent all-time high. This is another company that has suffered a major decline after releasing their earnings report.
看 Fortinet 的财报业绩，我们看到其整体营收同比增长了20%。产品营收增长了37%，这当然非常好，账单金额增长了29%，这也令人欣慰。CEO 随后表示，公司正获得强劲势头，AI 正在成为其业务的支撑力量。
Looking at Fortinet's earnings results, we see that overall their revenue increased by 20 percent compared to the previous year. Product revenue increased by 37 percent, which is certainly very good, and billings increased by 29 percent, which is also good to see.
The CEO then said that the company is gaining strong momentum and that AI is acting as a supporting force for their business.
如果你不了解的话，Fortinet 是一家网络安全公司。由于 AI 智能体以及世界各地各种 AI 带来的颠覆，这个行业目前正经历重大的积极利好。
Fortinet, if you don't know, is a cybersecurity company. This industry is currently experiencing major positive benefits due to AI agents and the various AI disruptions around the world.
Fortinet 对第四季度的指引是营收22亿美元、账单金额28亿美元。这意味着下一季度营收仅增长17.8%，表明这项业务开始放缓。你其实可以看到，本季度营收增速已开始从业务早前看到的强劲增长中放缓。
分析师现在预计这种放缓将持续，到2027年底增速将降至10%以下，这相当令人意外。
Fortinet's guidance for the fourth quarter is for revenue to be $2.2 billion and billings to be $2.8 billion. That's just 17.8 percent revenue growth in the next quarter, indicating that the business is starting to slow down.
You can actually see that this quarter, the revenue growth rate has started to slow down from the strong growth that the business was seeing earlier. Analysts now expect this slowdown to continue and growth to fall below 10 percent by the end of 2027, which is quite surprising.
现在，如果 Fortinet 在发布财报前的交易价格不是接近自由现金流的40倍，情况还不至于这么糟，这对这项业务来说是一个很高的倍数。看到增速从20%降到17%，再加上对进一步下滑的预期，正迫使这一倍数收缩。
正如我在整个视频中一直说的，业务放缓正是导致倍数收缩的原因，而 Fortinet 现在正向我们展示这一点。所以在我看来，这项业务此前是基于非常好的业绩和持续强劲增长来定价的，而市场现在因为它在放缓而下调了定价。
Now, this wouldn't be so bad if Fortinet wasn't trading at nearly 40 times price to free cash flow before its earnings report, which is a high multiple for this business. Seeing growth fall from 20 percent to 17 percent and expectations of further declines are forcing this multiple to shrink.
And as I've been saying throughout the video, business slowdowns are what cause multiple contractions, and Fortinet is showing us that now. So in my opinion, the business was priced based on very good results and continued strong growth, and the market has now priced that down because it is slowing down.
正如我在整个视频中一直说的，业务放缓正是导致倍数收缩的原因，而 Fortinet 现在正向我们展示这一点。所以在我看来，这项业务此前是基于非常好的业绩和持续强劲增长来定价的，而市场现在因为它在放缓而下调了定价。
And as I've been saying throughout the video , business slowdowns are what cause multiple contractions, and Fortinet is showing us that now. So in my opinion , the business was priced based on very good results and continued strong growth, and the market has now priced that down because it is slowing down.
总的来说，我对这个价格下的 Fortinet 不感兴趣，因为它目前的交易价格仍是自由现金流的27倍，我认为这对这项业务来说偏高，尤其是它明年很可能进一步放缓。
Overall, I'm not interested in Fortinet at this price because it's still trading at 27 times free cash flow, which I think is high for this business, especially since it's likely to slow down even more in the coming year.