GEV受益于美国电力需求上升;股价已大幅上涨,订单快速增长。
逐段跳播
比如 Genova,那只股票已经涨疯了。我可以稍微自我表扬一下,我很早就买了那只股票。但我买它是因为一个跟我关系很好的卖方分析师告诉我应该买,我就随便试了一把。
Like Genova, for example, and that stock's gone nuts. You know, I'll pat myself a little bit on the back. I bought that stock really early. But but I I bought it because the sell side analyst I'm very friendly with told me I should buy it and I just took a flyer on it.
让我告诉你,这非常有意思。GE 过去基本上由三个庞大的部门组成:医疗健康、航空航天——他们基本上为飞机生产喷气发动机,然后提供维修服务——还有所谓的能源。如果你见过喷气发动机,再看看燃气轮机,也就是用于发电厂发电的那种,它们看起来一模一样。
只是燃气轮机要大得多。但基本上是同样的技术。所以 GE 的能源部门生产燃气轮机。他们有大量出售的电气设备,然后还有一个表现极差的风电部门。
let me tell you, it's very interesting. So GE used to be composed basically of three massive divisions. healthcare, aerospace where they basically make the jet engines for planes and then they service them and then call it energy.
If you ever saw a jet engine and looked at at a gas turbine, which is what goes into a utility that creates electricity, they look exactly the same. It's just that the gas turbine is much bigger.
But it's basically the same technology. So the energy division of of GE makes gas turbines. They have all this electrical equipment that they sell and then they have a wind division which does terribly.
这应该能让你看到世界变化有多快。能源部门大概是在 2015 年前后创建的。GE 收购了一家欧洲公司,叫 Olam。Olm 是一家能源公司,也生产燃气轮机,而 GE 本来就有一项生产燃气轮机的业务。
于是他们把两者揉在一起,结果正好赶上整个燃气轮机业务崩盘。
Now this should show you how like fast the world can change. The the energy division was created when I think around 2015 or so. GE bought a company in Europe called Olam. Now Olm did was an energy company that also created gas turbines and GE had a business that created gas turbines.
So they mushed them together just in time for the entire gas turbine business to fall apart,
这就是为什么 IML 失去了他的——GE 的 CEO Jeff Immel 最终丢了工作,因为那已经够了。所以最终三个部门都被分拆出来。有 GE 医疗健康,我想它的代码是 GE。
还有能源部门,叫 GE Vernova,代码是 GEV。然后是 GE,也就是航空航天部门。
And this is why IML lost his Jeff Immel who was the CEO of GE finally lost his job because that was like enough already. So eventually all three divisions got spun out. So there's GE healthcare.
I think its symbol is GE. And there's the energy division which is called GE Vernova which is GEV. And then there's GE which is the aerospace division.
在 GE Vernova 分拆出来的一年之前。那大概是 2023 年,也许是 2022 年。如果你去读关于这个行业的卖方报告,能源业务当时太糟糕了,以至于他们给 Vernova 赋予了负价值。
负价值,就是说它值负的。我记得有个人写它值负 30 亿。
A year before [snorts] GE Vernova got spun out. So that would have been like 2023 maybe or 2022. If you were to read sellside reports upon about the industry, the energy business was so bad that they ascribed negative value to G to to Vernova.
Negative value that it was worth negative. I think when one guy wrote it was worth negative3 billion.
现在发生的情况是,甚至在整个数据中心这件事之前,美国的电力生产终于开始增长,这是大约 15 年来的第一次。现在再加上数据中心,你说的就是美国电力每年增长 3% 到 4%。这听起来可能不算什么大数字,但以美国为基数增长 3% 到 4%,相当于大约两个大城市。
now what's happened is even prior to the whole data center thing electrical production in the United States finally started to increase for the first time like in 15 years. Now add on top of that the data centers and you're talking about US electricity growing 3 to 4% per year.
Now that may not sound like such a huge number but 3 to 4% off of the base of the United States is the equivalent of like two large cities.
像 GE Vernova 这样的公司,订单已经排到了 2035 年,事情就是这么疯狂。
You know, a company like GE Vernova has backlogged like two 20 35 that that's how crazy things are
所以 GNOVA 的大部分是这些——嗯,就是燃气轮机。还有所有那些电气设备。我的意思是,想想看。你知道,当你建一座新的发电厂时,不只是涡轮机。还有所有其他必须接上的电气设备。这些他们也生产。而风电业务,我认为永远都会是个糟糕的业务。
So So most most of GNOVA is these um well it's the gas turbines. It's all the electrical I mean think about it. I mean there's You know, you're not just when you're building a new utility plant, it ain't just turbine.
There's all this other electrical equipment that's got to get hooked up. They make that too. And the wind business will always, I think, be a crappy business.
是的。我的意思是,那就是核心。你只需要看订单。我记得上个季度增长了 85%。简直离谱。我的意思是,他们——我的意思是,就像我们所在的这个房间里的那些燃气轮机。大概是把五个这样的房间合起来那么大。它们非常巨大。我的意思是,建造它们需要好几年。
Yeah. I mean, that's the core. And you would just want to look at the orders. Which I think in the last quarter up like 85%. Something insane. I mean they I mean there's those gas turbines like in the room that we're in.
It's like is it's like five of these rooms combined is how big these things are. They're huge. They're I mean it takes years to build them.
是的。这正是我打算说的——我想我读到过,他们的订单积压已经排到 2030 年以后了,差不多是这样。
Yes. Well, that's what I was going to I think I read something that their backlog is stretching out to past 2030 or something like it is
暂无中文转述,仅英文原句可核对。
GE, Verova,
这个频道对 $GEV 的历次判断
New Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。