GILD 突破长达九个月、位于 153 阻力下方的底部形态,出现向上跳空缺口,动能强劲但未超买,仍有进一步上行空间;生物科技板块走强及实体瘤乐观情绪提供支撑。财报隐含的高波动率可能抵消看涨缺口;财报后若回落至 155 则具吸引力。
逐段跳播
我们有一家公司叫Gilead Sciences。他们今天创下新纪录。他们上涨了3.3%。他们经历了一轮非常强劲的上涨。他们在实体瘤领域有一个合作项目,似乎引发了大量乐观情绪。
We have a company called "Gilead Sciences". They set a new record today. They have increased by 3.3 percent. They have seen a really strong rise. They have a partnership in the field of solid tumors that seems to be generating a lot of optimism.
类似。这个板块有点不同,我认为它是医疗保健和生物技术之间的混合体。所以,再次强调,如果你看看生物技术过去几个月的相对强度,尤其是最近几天,你会发现这是一个展现出能够抵御科技板块部分抛压能力的板块。
这就是我今天选择关注这个名字的原因,也因为当你观察现在的价格走势时,我们看到今天出现了显著的上涨,而这只股票似乎有望维持这轮上涨趋势。
Similarly. This sector is a little different, and I think it's a mix between healthcare and biotechnology . So, again, if you look at the relative strength of biotechnology over the past several months, and particularly in the last few days, you will find that it is a sector that is showing an ability to withstand some of the selling pressure in the technology sector.
This is why I chose to focus on this name today, and also because when you look at the price action now, we see a significant upward move today, and the stock appears poised to maintain this upward trend.
Marley,这是很长一段时间、实际上是三个季度以来构筑这种圆弧底部的某种 culmination,你大概可以把这描述为一个杯柄形态,右侧在153阻力位下方有一个平坦的柄部。现在,我们看到了向上的价格跳空和那次突破,并有望因这个跳空而出现一波动能强劲的上涨。
动能尚未达到超买或极端区间,这可能表明仍有进一步上行空间。不过,如果你观察今天的K线,它是一根“射击”类型的K线,你会看到在这些更高价位上出现了一些价格发现。股价已从这些高位小幅回落。
Well, you know, Marley, this comes as a kind of culmination of a long period, in fact three-quarters of a year, of building this sort of round base, and you could probably describe this as a cup and handle pattern, with a flat handle here on the right side below the 153 resistance level.
Now, we have an upward price gap and that breakout, with a prospect of a rally resulting from that gap with strong momentum. The momentum has not yet reached the overbought or extreme range, which may indicate that there may still be room for further upside .
However, if you watch today’s candle, which is a “shooting” type, you will see a bit of price discovery at those higher levels. The stock has retreated slightly from those high levels.
这里还要考虑的另一件事是,在这次财报公布之前,隐含波动率已经相对较高。事实上,它已经和这只股票前三次财报公布时一样高,这可能表明一些投资者也许正试图用这种高隐含波动率来稍微对冲这个看涨跳空,Marley。
Another thing to consider here is that the implied volatility ahead of this earnings announcement is already relatively high. In fact, it's as high as it was in the last three earnings announcements for this stock, and that may indicate that some investors are perhaps trying to mitigate this bullish gap a little here with this high implied volatility , Marley.
是的,Marley。再举一个11月期权交易的例子。这笔交易稍微更大胆一些,因为我认为Gilead将继续保持上行走势。如果在财报公布后股价出现一定回落至155的水平,我认为那个水平对买入该股会更有吸引力。
所以,今天的交易示例是“风险逆转”,也就是卖出11月的看跌期权并买入看涨期权。卖出155的看跌期权,买入165的看涨期权。当股价在159附近交易时,你可以用很小的资金来做这笔交易。
再说一次,如果我们维持这种似乎正处于启动阶段的上行趋势,这能让你参与上涨行情。而如果出现一些疲软,正如Ben所指出的,财报公布前较高的隐含波动率也已经反映在11月期权的价格中。
因此,我认为在155以下买入该股并长期持有,是这个交易示例的另一个方面,而且我看到你这里有一个不错的布局。
Yes, Marley. Again , an example of an options deal for November. This deal is a little bolder , as I believe Gilead will continue to maintain an upward price movement . If we see some decline in the price to the 155 level after the earnings announcement, I think that level will be more attractive for acquiring the stock.
So, today's trading example is " Risk Reversal," i.e., selling a put option and buying a call option for November . Sell the put option at 155 and buy the call option at 165. You can do this for a small balance when the stock was trading around 159.
Again , this allows you to participate in the uptrend if we maintain this upward trend that seems to be in its launch phase. And if there is some weakness, as Ben pointed out, the high implied volatility ahead of the announcement is also priced into the November options.
Therefore, I believe that buying the stock below 155 to hold it for the long term is another aspect of this trade example, and I see that you have a good setup here.