GLD的下跌被夸大；寻求的是短期可交易的反弹，而非建立多头仓位。
逐段跳播
在这一段中，你今天的第一个交易是GLD基金。你目前对GLD的论点是什么？GLD基金经历了相当急剧的下跌。这显然与美元有很大关系。随着美元强劲上涨，这当然与债券市场密切相关，对吧？
所以，人们实际上正在转向美元。这反过来对黄金产生了重大的负面影响。
You have the GLD fund as the first deal of the day in this paragraph. What is your thesis on GLD at the moment? The GLD fund experienced a rather sharp decline. This clearly has a big connection to the US dollar.
With the US dollar rising strongly, which is very much linked to the bond market of course, isn't that right? So, people are actually switching to dollars. This in turn has a significant negative impact on gold.
我认为现阶段这次下跌被夸大了。这是从430水平跌至380水平的非常急剧的下跌。正如我所说，我认为美元的上涨也过头了。
I think this decline is exaggerated at this stage. It's a very sharp decline from the 430 level down to the 380 level. As I said, I think the dollar's rise is also overdone.
我在寻找一次可交易的反弹，仅此而已，并且我想强调，我不是来做多黄金的。我在寻找我们交易员所说的突然、强劲的向上反弹，我相信这在黄金市场中将是可以交易的。
I am looking for a tradable bounce, nothing more, and I want to emphasize that I am not here to do a long buy in gold. I am looking for what we traders call a sudden, strong upward bounce, and I believe this will be tradable in the gold market.
为了做到这一点并确定风险，我将使用10月30日的期权。再说一次，10月30日的期权，即到期日为10月30日。我会买入执行价为380的看涨期权。我会买入380期权，并卖出相应的385期权。
这个价差，即5美元的买入期权价差，以1.40美元的折价成交。
To do this and to determine the risks, I will use the October 30th options. Again, the October 30th options, i.e., the expiry date of October 30th. I will buy call options at 380.
I will buy 380 options and sell the corresponding 385 options. That difference, which is a $5 bid option spread, was executed at a discount of $1.40.
再次强调，只是对黄金的短期乐观看法，在寻找那种典型的向上突破。KG，从“GLD”基金的技术面来看，你认为近期有可能出现突破吗？
Once again, just a short-term optimistic view of gold, in search of that typical upward breakout. KG, looking at the technical aspects of the "GLD" fund, do you see a possibility of a breakout soon?
嗯，我认为如果我们看一年期的日线图，如果我们真的跌至360美元水平，你可能会看到这样的交易设置。如果你看图表，原因如下。我们清楚地看到黄金，或者说“GLD”，在去年这个时候向上移动。
我们看到一次不错的突破，但自那以后我们录得的高点越来越少。我们现在有一条来自峰值的重要且有影响力的下降趋势线，而这条线在我们于7月至8月初进行了一些盘整之后已经被突破。我们重新测试了200日移动均线，但也在那里失败了。
我们在200日、20日和50日水平都失败了，我们有点回到了大约360美元至384美元的这个交易区间。
Well, I think if we look at the daily chart for one year, you might have this setup for trading in case we actually drop to the $360 level. And if you look at the graph, here's why.
We clearly saw gold, or "GLD", move upwards at this time last year. We saw a good breakout, but we've been recording fewer highs since then. We now had a major and influential downtrend line from the peaks, which was already broken after we had done some consolidation between July and early August.
We retested the 200-day moving average, but we failed at that too. We failed at the 200-day, 20-day, and 50-day levels, and we've kind of returned to this trading range of approximately $360 to $384.
但由于我们此前在7月看到的盘整，可以说一些买家可能准备在这些水平附近入场。他们可能不想在当前这些水平入场。相对强弱指数（RSI）正在录得更少的高点和更少的低点。MACD指标正试图企稳。
我认为这将是你看到强劲、突然的上行趋势以及重新测试其中一些关键移动均线可能正在发生的首批迹象之一。
But because of the consolidation we saw earlier in July, it could be argued that some buyers might be ready to enter around those levels. They may not want to enter at these current levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recording fewer highs and fewer lows. The MACD indicator is trying to stabilize. I think this would be one of your first signs that a strong, sudden uptrend and a retest of some of those key moving averages might be happening here.
但Marley，我认为，与我们在当前利率环境下所处的水平相比，一个更强的支撑区可能会为许多机构投资者提供更好的入场点。
But Marley, I think a stronger support zone might provide a better entry point for many institutional investors compared to the current levels we have now in the interest rate environment.
好。所以，正如Don所解释的，我们在这里只是在寻找短期上行趋势。他并不是在做多黄金，而只是在短期内寻找向上走势。
Good. So, we are only looking for a short-term uptrend here, as Don explained. He is not taking a long position in gold, but is only looking for an upward move in the short term.
KG，当你查看“GLD”的长期图表时，趋势是否仍然成立？趋势依然成立。看三年期的周线图，你看到的是更高的高点，而且大多是更高的低点。但看这个交易形态，可以说我们大概正处在这一浪的第三个点上。
如果从底部水平画出趋势线并稍微移动一下，你会看到355这一水平，以及360，在我们向上突破之前是一个强支撑区域。所以，如果你是遵循艾略特波浪理论、道氏理论的人，或者是一名技术交易者，那么这里最可能看起来像是我们正处在第三浪之中。
我们触及那条趋势线，然后立刻反弹回升，试图重新站上20周移动均线。这正是你可以对该股变得更加乐观的时候。相对强弱指数（RSI）和MACD指标在周线图上仍处于看跌形态。
KG, as you look at the long-term chart for "GLD", does the trend still hold? I mean, the trend is still in place. I mean, you're looking at higher peaks, and mostly, higher troughs when you look at a three-year weekly chart.
But you look at this trading setup, and you can say that we are probably at this third point of the wave. If you look at the trend line from the bottom levels and move it a little, you will see that the 355 level, and again 360, is a strong support area before we move upwards.
So, if you are someone who follows Elliott Wave Theory, Dow Theory, or is a technical trader, it most likely looks like we are in the midst of the third wave here. We hit that trend line, then bounce right back up, trying to reclaim the 20-week moving average.
This is the time when you can become more optimistic about this stock. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicator are still in a bearish formation on the weekly chart.
GLD基金在本交易时段下跌。我们下跌了约1.7%，同时黄金在本时段也下跌约1.5%。
Well, the GLD fund has declined in the trading session. We are down about 1.7% as we also see gold down about 1.5 percent in the session.
这个频道对 $GLD 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。