通用汽车在营收、每股收益和息税前利润上均超预期，但收窄后的指引维持了其中点，上行空间与下行空间被同等削减，导致股价下跌5%。不过整体而言本季度表现良好，更窄的区间也带来了更多清晰度；通用汽车在76附近的长期支撑位反弹，而分析师的失望情绪往往标志着逆向买入的机会。
逐段跳播
我们来看一下通用汽车发布财报后的一日走势图。我们现在下跌了5.2%。正如我们之前提到的，它是大盘指数中表现最差的个股之一，原因是业绩指引被下调。市场似乎对此不太满意。
Let's take a look at the one-day chart following General Motors' earnings report. We are now down 5.2 percent. It is one of the worst performing names in the broader index, as we mentioned earlier, which is due to the guidance cut.
It seems the market is not very happy with this.
是的，正如你指出的，尽管GM达到了盈利目标并宣布了新的回购计划，它今早仍是标普500指数中表现最差的个股，但正如你所说，真正的问题出在业绩指引上。
Yes, as you pointed out, GM is the worst performer in the S&P 500 this morning, despite meeting earnings targets and a new buyback, but as you indicated, the real problem is with the guidance.
他们本季度的营收为500亿美元，比一年前增长了约3%，高于市场共识。每股收益也超出预期，为3.70美元，而预期约为3.57美元。调整后EBIT同样好于预期，为41亿美元，高于预期的近40亿美元，同比增长约22%。
Their revenue this quarter was $50 billion. Which is about 3% more than a year ago. This was more than the consensus. EPS was also better than expected, coming in at $3.70. It was estimated to be around $3.57.
Adjusted EBIT was also better than expected, at $4.1 billion. This is more than the expected nearly $4 billion. This is an increase of about 22% year-on-year.
然而，最大的更新和主要问题在于业绩指引。GM目前预计全年调整后EBIT在145亿至155亿美元之间，此前的区间为140亿至160亿美元；预计每股收益在12.75至13.75美元之间，此前的区间为12至14美元。
调整后汽车自由现金流预计在115亿至125亿美元之间，此前的区间为95亿至115亿美元。
However, the big update and main problem is guidance. GM now expects adjusted EBIT of between $14.5 billion and $15.5 billion for the full year. The previous range was $14 to $16 billion and they are expecting EPS between $12.75 and $13.75.
The previous limit was $12 to $14. Adjusted automotive free cash flow between $11.5 and $12.5 billion. The previous limit was $9.5 to $11.5 billion.
现在真正的问题是，这些区间的中值保持不变，这意味着GM在降低下行风险的同时，也以同样的幅度削减了上行空间。而且看起来抛售压力正在从当前水平积聚。
Now the real problem is that the midpoint of these ranges has been kept the same, which means that as much as GM has reduced the downside, it has also reduced the upside by the same amount.
And it seems that selling pressure is building from here.
不过，董事会批准了一项200亿美元、无到期日的多年期授权，并宣布每股18美分的季度股息。关于这项回购，Mary Barra表示，他们认为这是一项经过验证的策略。今天宣布的新的200亿美元多年期股票回购计划授权，体现了我们董事会对为股东创造更大价值的承诺。
However, the board signed a multi-year authorization of $20 billion with no expiration date and declared a quarterly dividend of 18 cents per share. Regarding that buyback, Mary Barra says that they consider it a proven strategy.
The authorization of a new $20 billion multi-year share repurchase program announced today demonstrates our Board's commitment to creating greater value for shareholders.
他还表示，尽管通胀压力上升，他们仍在努力保持势头。这些压力的影响确实显而易见。他们的国际业务利润下降了87%。大宗商品价格高企推高了他们的成本，这也削弱了北美强劲的季度业绩。
He also said that they are working to maintain their momentum despite rising inflationary pressures. Their impact is certainly visible. They saw their international profits drop by 87%.
High commodity prices are pushing their prices higher, which is also dampening a strong quarterly result in North America.
他们表示，预计产品通胀约为20亿美元，此前的区间约为15亿至20亿美元。因此，包括物流和存储芯片成本在内，他们处于该区间的上限。他们还将预期的监管收益从7.5亿美元下调至约5亿美元。
相比之下，总关税成本正趋向于25亿至35亿美元的较低区间。
They say they expect product inflation to be around $2 billion. The previous range was around $1.5 to $2 billion. So they are within that upper limit, including logistics and memory chip costs.
They have also reduced their expected regulatory benefits from $750 million to about $500 million. In contrast, total tariff costs are trending towards a lower range of $2.5 to $3.5 billion.
所以这里有很多可谈的内容，但大家似乎都卡在那一系列指引上。他们还在应对电动汽车销量的大幅下滑以及从电动汽车战略的转向。
So there was a lot to choose from here, but everyone seemed to be stuck with that range of instructions. They are also dealing with the collapse of their EV sales and the shift away from their EV strategy.
他们的电动汽车销量下降了约62%，不到其美国总销量的4%，而一年前这一比例超过9%。如果剔除电动汽车，GM的销量基本持平，增长了约0.3%。因此，燃油皮卡帮助抵消了部分损失，但他们仍处于从电动汽车转型的过程中，这仍然是一个压力来源。
Their EV sales are down about 62%, which is less than 4% of their total US volume. A year ago it was over 9%. If you exclude EVs, GM's sales were essentially flat. It was up about 0.3 percent.
So gas-powered trucks are helping to offset some of that loss, but they are still in the process of transitioning away from EVs, which is still a source of stress.
轻型皮卡的销量是主要驱动力，得益于Silverado，销量增长了9.3%。GMC Sierra轻型皮卡的销量也有所增长。重型车型或大型皮卡的销量略有下降。Silverado HD实际上下降了10%，Sierra HD下降了约7%，但它仍有望连续第七年领跑全尺寸皮卡类别。
Sales of light-duty pickup trucks were a major driver. Sales increased 9.3% thanks to the Silverado. Sales of the GMC Sierra light-duty also increased. Sales of heavy-duty models or large pickup trucks were slightly lower.
The Silverado HD is actually down 10% and the Sierra HD is down about 7%, but it's still on track to lead the full-size pickup category for the seventh year in a row.
因此，虽然燃油皮卡帮助抵消了那部分损失，但整体数据相当不错。问题在于大家都担心的业绩指引区间，因为他们收窄了区间却没有改变中值，Sam。
So while gas-powered trucks help offset that loss, the numbers overall are pretty good. The problem is the range of the guidance that everyone is worried about, because they narrowed the range but didn't change the midpoint, Sam.
是的，正如你所说，但前景显然仍存在很大的不确定性。
Yes, as you said, but there is clearly still a lot of uncertainty about the outlook.
正如你所说，股价下跌超过5%，所以我们来和期权策略师Tim Bigham讨论一下交易。你会如何操作GM的交易？
As you said, the stock price is down more than 5%, so let's discuss trading with options strategist Tim Bigham. How do you manage a trade on GM?
是的，早上好Sam，我认为这份财报整体不错。他们在营收方面确实做得很好，而且他们收窄了业绩指引区间，在我看来这为未来提供了更多清晰度。我知道上限下降了，但正如Molly提到的，下限上升了，所以我认为区间略微收窄是积极的，因为基于此做决策可能更容易。
Yes, good morning Sam, I think the report was good overall. They've certainly done well in terms of revenue and the narrowing of the guidance range they've narrowed provides more clarity for the future to me.
I know the upper limit has decreased, but as Molly mentioned, the lower limit has increased, so I see the range narrowing a bit as a positive, because it can be easier to make decisions based on that.
该股也正在接近76这一关键支撑位。事实上，它今天早些时候触及了该水平并迅速反弹，所以看起来这是一个重要的长期支撑位。
The stock is also approaching that key support level of 76. In fact, it hit that level earlier today and bounced back quickly from there, so it looks like it's major long-term support.
业绩指引的增长与营收和盈利的增长并不完全一致。我认为分析师可能有些失望，但你知道，分析师在短期内总是会不满。这通常是反向建仓的好时机。
The growth in guidance was not fully consistent with the growth in revenue and earnings. I think analysts may have been a little disappointed, but you know analysts are always upset in the short term.
This is usually a good time to take a position in the opposite direction.
这个频道对 $GM 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。