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$GOOG

$GOOG · Financial Education · 2026-10-28

AI 摘要 · Financial Education

GOOG 似乎被显著低估:即便在财报发布前,其前瞻市盈率约为19,而四年历史均值约为23。营收增长25%,Google Cloud 营收翻倍以上,云业务营业利润增长两倍以上。但513亿的巨额资本开支(接近净利润的两倍)、负自由现金流以及尚未解决的AI回报争论限制了其说服力;财报后的补充限定尚未说完。

看涨他说的是几年内
《I F’d up‼️》
Financial Education发布 2026-10-28 · 17 段内容
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17 段内容
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看看Google MacDougall。女士们先生们,Google MacDougall现在正式陷入崩跌。它已较历史最高点下跌约30%。那个高点是他今年早些时候达到的。伙计,它完全崩跌了,而且在今天的盘后交易时段再次遭到打击。

Look at Google MacDougall. Google MacDougall, ladies and gentlemen, is officially in collapse now. It has fallen by approximately 30% from its all-time high. Which he reached earlier this year.

Man, he's in complete collapse and is getting hit again after today's trading hours.

Google MacDougall,这也是我赚了一大笔利润的股票。但你知道,这只股票对我们表现非常好。我们在Google,伟大的老Google身上赚了一倍。

Google MacDougall, this is a stock from which I also made substantial profits. But this stock, as you know, has performed very well for us. We doubled our money in Google, the great old Google .

首先,Google股票。在这些利润之后,是买入还是卖出?

First, Google stock. Is it for buying or selling after these profits?

Google McDougall 说:“天哪,业绩比我预期的还要好。”“我需要把营收增长预期上调1%等等。”是不是这样?这能告诉你这只股票值不值得买,对吧?或者基本上,它能告诉你随着时间推移的预期回报是多少,对吧?

Well, Google McDougall, right? She says, "Man, the job is better than I expected." "I need to raise my revenue growth forecast by 1% and so on." Isn't that so? This will tell you whether this stock is worth buying or not, right?

Or basically, it will tell you what the expected return is over time, right?

好。听着,Google MacDougall。什么?营收增长25%。这太惊人了。你也知道,对于像 Google 这样成熟的公司,季度营收超过一千亿美元,还能实现这种水平的增长,简直不可思议,对吧?

为 Google 喝彩。我是说,无论从哪个角度看,这都是一个巨兽。从各方面来看都是一个巨兽。

Good. Listen, Google MacDougall. What? Revenue growth of 25%. This is amazing. As you know, for a company as established as Google, generating over one hundred billion dollars in quarterly revenue, achieving this level of growth is insane, isn't it?

Bravo to Google. I mean, what a monster by any measure. What a monster by all accounts.

现在,Google 的商业模式规模相当大,对吧?我们知道 Google 搜索引擎。我们知道 Gemini。我们知道 YouTube。我们知道 Android。我们知道云计算这块业务。他们还有很多其他业务。简直难以置信,对吧?

Now, Google's business models are quite large-scale, aren't they? We know the Google search engine. We know Gemini. We know YouTube. We know Android. We know the cloud computing side of the business.

They also have many other businesses. It's unbelievable, isn't it?

营收成本增长了24%。这低于营收增速。这是好事。研发费用略高一些,增长了36%。销售和营销费用增长22%。这个我们可以接受。行政及一般费用,他们已经同比削减了17%。这是一大胜利。

总成本和费用增长了22%。所以,如果你的营收增长25%,而成本和费用只增长22%,营收这个数字总是远大于成本和费用,那么你的运营利润就会大幅飙升。这就是我们在 Google McDougall 这里看到的:运营利润同比增长30%,从312亿美元增至405亿美元。我是说,这现在真的很惊人。

The cost of revenue increased by 24%. This was less than the revenue. This is a good thing. Research and development expenses were slightly higher, at 36%. Sales and marketing 22%.

We accept that. Administrative and general expenses, they have already reduced them by 17% year-on-year. This is a great win. Total costs and expenses increased by 22%. So, if your revenue is up by 25%, which is always a much larger number than your costs and expenses, which have increased by 22%, then your income from operations is going to explode upwards.

This is what we saw here with Google McDougall: revenue from operations rose 30% year-over-year to $40.5 billion from $ 31.2 billion. I mean, this is really amazing right now .

这里有一些因素让 Google 的净利润和每股收益看起来比实际应有的更差。那就是,如果你考虑到这里有82亿美元的其他费用。这个项目在各处都在不断变化,对吧?如果你看去年同一季度,他们录得了127亿美元的收益。

这很大程度上是由于其短期可交易证券价格的波动,他们被迫记录并非实际利润的亏损或利润,但按照公认会计原则,他们必须为此负责。本质上,这是一个特殊情形,让公司的盈利能力看起来比实际更低。

所以,看净利润,似乎同比下降了24%,稀释每股收益下降了26%。但再说一次,这主要是由于这个特殊原因。我仍然给他们一个“减分”的评价。这仍然是一份非常好、非常出色的报告。撇开这个特殊情形,正如我所说,人们不应该对这些偶发事项反应过度。

There was something here that made Google's net income and earnings per share look worse than they actually should have been. That was if you considered that there were other expenses here amounting to $8.2 billion.

This item is constantly changing everywhere, isn't it? If you look at the same quarter last year, they made gains of $12.7 billion. Much of this is due to the volatility of their short-term tradable securities prices, where they are forced to record losses or profits that are not actually profits, but they are accountable for this according to generally accepted accounting principles.

Essentially, this is an exceptional scenario that makes the company's profitability appear lower than it actually is . So, when you look at net income, it appears to have decreased by 24% year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share have decreased by 26%.

But again , this is mainly due to this exceptional reason. I still give them a "minus" rating. It is still a very good and excellent report. Apart from that exceptional scenario , as I said, one should not overreact to these incidental matters.

这里才是事情变得极其重要的地方。在 Google,所有人最关心的就是这块:Google Cloud。看看这个。营收同比翻了一倍多,从去年同期的151亿美元增至本季度的307亿美元。

对于这样规模的公司来说,这是不可思议的增长。他们的云业务现在似乎正在蓬勃发展,对吧?此外,这不仅仅是营收增长而没有盈利。他们并没有亏损巨额资金。不,看看 Google Cloud 业务的运营利润。

它同比翻了三倍多,从约36亿美元增至111亿美元。所以,这块业务的营收在蓬勃发展,但盈利能力增长得更猛,对吧?

This is where things become extremely important. The work that everyone cares about more than anything else at Google is this: Google Cloud. Look at this. Revenue more than doubled year-over-year from $15.1 billion in the same quarter last year to $30.7 billion this quarter.

This is incredible growth for a company of this size. Their cloud activity seems to be booming right now, doesn't it? In addition, it is not just about an increase in revenue without profitability.

They don't lose huge sums of money. No, look at the operating income of Google Cloud activity. It has more than tripled year-on-year from about 3.6 billion to 11.1 billion. So, revenues are booming for this business, but profitability is booming much more , isn't it?

还有存储芯片公司的股票,太惊人了。真的惊人。现在,这里发生了几件关键的事情,我想向你们解释。这极其重要。好,看看这个。Google Cloud 实现了创纪录的增长,营收增长了103%。

这得益于 Google Cloud 平台在企业 AI 基础设施和企业 AI 解决方案以及核心 Google Cloud 服务方面的强劲增长。Tensor Processing Unit(TPU)系统的销售也是营收增长的重要贡献者。

嗯,张量处理单元系统,这非常重要。我们在人工智能方面的投资正在推动整体搜索查询量的增长,包括商业查询。事实上,我们的搜索年增长率是过去五年来最高的。所以,这也令人难以置信,对吧?

And the stocks of memory chip companies, that's amazing. Truly amazing. Now, there are a few key things that have happened here that I want to explain to you. This is extremely important .

Okay, look at this. Google Cloud achieved record growth, with revenues increasing by 103%. Driven by strong growth in the Google Cloud platform across enterprise AI infrastructure and enterprise AI solutions, as well as core Google Cloud services.

Sales of Tensor Processing Unit ( TPU) systems were also an important contributor to revenue growth. Well, tensor processing unit systems, this is very important. Our investments in artificial intelligence are driving the growth of overall search queries, including business queries.

In fact, our annual growth in searches is the highest it has been in the past five years. So, that's unbelievable too , isn't it?

如你所知,我们在人工智能方面有投资,而所有这些支出最终是否会带来远高于其投入的回报,仍然有争议。本质上,回报是否会远大于他们的支出,仍然存在争论。假设他们今年支出2000亿。未来几年回报会是4000亿、6000亿还是8000亿,还是只有1000亿?

是不是这样?关于这一点仍有疑问,但这里的寓意是。AI 投资确实在几个不同方面带来了回报,对吧?

We have, as you know, investments in artificial intelligence, and it remains debatable whether all this spending will ultimately lead to a much greater return than what they are spending.

Essentially, the return is still debated as to whether it will be much greater than what they spend. Let's assume they spend 200 billion this year. Will the return be 400 billion , 600 billion, or 800 billion in the coming years , or will it be only 100 billion?

Isn't that so? There are still questions about that, but the moral of the story is here. AI investments are certainly paying off in several different ways, aren't they ?

但这里我们来到了 Google 真正负面的情况。好吗?记住,公司净利润约为264亿。现在,如果那笔冲击不是82亿,这个数字本会在340亿或350亿左右,对吧?但最终,净利润是264亿,对吧?

但看看物业、厂房和设备。我们此刻看的是现金流量表,对吧?购置物业和设备的支出达513亿。这几乎是公司净利润的两倍。他们只是把钱花在了物业和设备上,对吧?这真是一笔巨大的金额。确实是一笔巨大的金额。

我们再一次回到关于 Google 能否收回所有这些钱的争论。如你所知,我们拭目以待。拭目以待。但是,天哪,这太多了。

But here we arrive at a truly negative situation with Google. Good? The company had a net income, remember , of about 26.4 billion. Now , if that hit hadn't been worth 8.2 billion, the figure would have been around 34 or 35 billion, wouldn't it?

But ultimately, the net income was 26.4 billion, wasn't it? But look at the property, facilities, and equipment. We are looking at the cash flow statement at this moment, aren't we ?

Purchases of property and equipment amounted to 51.3 billion. That's almost double the company's net income. They only spent it on property and equipment, right? That's a really huge amount.

That's a huge amount indeed. And once again we return to the debate about whether Google will recoup all of this money . As you know, we shall see. We'll see. But, man, that's too much.

我只想谈谈这些张量处理单元(TPU),因为你可能听说过它们,听起来 Google 在卖这些单元。为什么有人会选择这样的东西而不是 Nvidia 芯片,对吧?因为显然每个人都在 Nvidia 芯片上花了很多钱,对吧?

因此,这是一个具有成本效益的替代方案。Nvidia 的 AI 芯片稀缺且昂贵,使得 Google 设计的专用集成电路成为更便宜、更容易扩展基础设施的方式。此外,还有直接可用性。

Google 已经将业务扩展到不仅仅是在其云上出租张量处理单元(TPU);它现在直接向 Anthropic 这样的 AI 先驱出售或授权这些单元,Anthropic 计划部署100万个单元,同时还与 Oracle 这样的竞争对手云提供商合作。

因此,这些张量处理单元在未来几年肯定会是一个巨大的因素。

I just want to talk about these Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), because you may have heard of them, and it sounds like Google is selling these units. Why would someone choose something like that instead of Nvidia chips, right?

Because everyone is clearly spending a lot on Nvidia chips, right? Therefore, it is a cost-effective alternative. Nvidia's AI chips are rare and expensive, making the application-specific integrated circuits designed by Google a cheaper and easier way to scale the infrastructure.

In addition, direct availability. Google has expanded its operations beyond simply leasing Tethered Processing Units (TPUs) across its cloud; it now sells or licenses them directly to AI pioneers like Anthropic, which plans to deploy one million units, while also partnering with rival cloud providers like Oracle.

Therefore, these tensor processing units will certainly be a huge factor in the coming years.

记住,现在以及未来几年有大量资金花在芯片上,而且对每个人来说都足够。有足够的钱花在 Nvidia、AMD 甚至 Intel 上,当然像 Google 这样的公司也有能力赚取大量利润。

Remember that there is a lot of money being spent on chips right now and over the next few years, and there is enough for everyone. There is enough money to spend on Nvidia, AMD and even Intel, and certainly companies like Google are in a position to make a lot of profit as well.

我还要加上 Amazon 和 Broadcom。现在以及未来几年有大量资金花在芯片上。这些你都需要。而芯片的最大受益者之一最终也会是 Google,对吧?因此,这是值得记住的一点。

I would add Amazon and Broadcom to that. A lot of money is being spent on chips now and for the next few years. You need all of that. And one of the biggest beneficiaries of chips will end up being Google too, won't it? Therefore , this is something to keep in mind.

现在,我们来看 thousandx.com 上的图表功能。这正是你想看到的营收随时间增长的样子。但我真正想重点看的是这张 Google 的图。因为这张图是基于过去十二个月的数据。

它确实能让你看清 Google 的情况,不是吗?自由现金流持续下降。如果看季度数据,情况真的很糟,不是吗?现在已经变成负值了。但公司的经营现金流仍在持续累积。而这里就出现了 Google 这类股票目前这种奇怪的矛盾,你会说:他们的经营现金流比以往任何时候都高,一直在持续上升,不是吗?

但最终,他们把所有的钱都花在了房产、厂房和设备上。

Now, we're looking at the charting feature on thousandx.com here, right? This is exactly what you want to see from revenue growth over time. But what I really wanted to focus on was this Google graph here.

Because this chart is based on the past twelve months. It really shows you what's going on with Google, does n't it? Free cash flow continues to decline. If you look at the quarterly data , the situation is really bad, isn't it?

It has become negative now. But the company's operating cash flow continues to accumulate. And here's where this strange discrepancy occurs with a stock like Google right now, where you say: Well, their operating cash flow is higher than ever.

It's on a continuous rise, isn't it? But ultimately, they spend all they have on property, factories, and equipment.

现在,关键点在这里。你想知道 Google 股票是否值得买入。你想看一些东西。当然,我们可以回顾所有的增长率。我们实现了25%的营收增长,云计算业务翻了一番,盈利能力增长了两倍多。

我是说,这简直难以置信,不是吗?但你付出的是什么价格?在 thousandx 上,我们有估值随时间变化的图,对吧?Google 历史平均四年市盈率大约在23左右,对吧?现在,根据 Google 的盘后股价走势和明年的盈利预测,我认为该股目前的远期市盈率大约在19,而历史上大约在23,所以我可以这么说,这只股票甚至在财报发布之前就已经被明显低估了。但现在……

Now, here's the important point. You want to know if Google stock is a buy. You want to look at something. Of course, we can review all the growth rates. We achieved 25% revenue growth, our cloud computing activity doubled, and profitability more than tripled.

I mean, it's unbelievable, isn't it? But what price are you paying? At 1000x, we have the evaluation over time, right ? Google's average historical four-year price-to-earnings ratio is around 23, right?

Now, based on Google's after-hours stock movement and next year's earnings forecast , I would say the stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio is currently around 19, while historically it's around 23 , so I can say that this stock was significantly undervalued even before the earnings release. But now that

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