$GOOGL

GOOGL被长期持有;尽管当前落后,AI能力的快速提升仍支持继续持有该头寸。

看涨
《Google And Meta Will Beat OpenAI And Anthropic》
Joseph Carlson After Hours发布 2026-10-01 · 14 段内容
00:21/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

14 段内容
0:2118:18

我将解释为什么我认为 Google 和 Meta 是最有希望在人工智能领域胜出的两家公司。Sundar 本人昨天公布了 Google 的 Gemini 4 原型。它还发布了性能测量结果,显示其相对于其他领先人工智能模型具有相对优势。

And I will explain why I believe that Google and Meta are the two companies best positioned to win in the field of artificial intelligence. Sundar himself announced Google's Gemini 4 prototype yesterday.

It also released performance measurement results showing its relative superiority compared to other leading artificial intelligence models.

但我们还有拥有“Gemini”的 Google。Google 是人工智能领域的领导者。他们在这个领域投入了很长时间,而且从各方面看,Google 都配得上领导者的地位。他们是在这个领域投入资金最多的公司。

他们拥有完整的工作团队。他们有电子芯片。他们有图形处理器。他们拥有所需的全部服务器容量。他们甚至拥有体现在“DeepMind”中的智能。他们一切都准备就绪,但正如常见的情况那样,作为一个庞大而臃肿的组织,不像年轻的初创公司那样精简,他们不够灵活。

Google 落入了官僚低效的陷阱。他们无法推出产品,因为他们的产品太庞大。他们需要大幅扩张。要推出产品,必须克服许多保障措施和官僚繁文缛节。他们最初发布了“Bard”,然后将其升级为“Gemini”,此后一直在追赶“ChatGBT”。

But we also have Google with "Gemini". Google is a leader in the field of artificial intelligence. They have invested in this field for a long time, and by all accounts, Google deserves to be the leader.

They are the ones who have invested the most money in this field . They are the ones who have a complete work team. They have electronic chips. They have graphics processing units .

They have all the server capacity required. They even have the intelligence embodied in "DeepMind" . They had everything ready, but as is often the case , as a large and bloated organization, not as streamlined as a young startup, they were not flexible enough .

Google fell into the trap of bureaucratic inefficiency. They were unable to launch the products because their products are too large. They need to expand very significantly. There are many guarantees and bureaucratic red tape that must be overcome in order to launch their product.

They initially released "Bard" and then upgraded it to "Gemini," and have been pursuing "ChatGBT " ever since.

但 Google 做了一些令投资者意外的事情。首先,Google 表明“ChatGBT”实际上并没有摧毁 Google 的搜索业务。他们设法以某种方式保护了它。其次,Gemini 增长迅速,这证明了 Google 分发渠道的实力。

“Gemini”不只是一个手机应用。它被安装在每一台 Android 设备上。它被用于“Gmail”和“YouTube”的每一个部分。它被整合进“Google Drive”。它被整合进人们每天使用数十亿次的每一项服务,比如“Maps”。

所以 Google 能够以通常难以预期的速度追赶上来。

But Google did some things that surprised investors. First, Google showed that " ChatGBT" does not actually destroy Google's search business. They managed to protect that somehow.

Secondly, Gemini grew rapidly, and this demonstrates the strength of Google's distribution. "Gemini" is not just a phone app . It is installed on every Android device. It is used in every part of "Gmail" and " YouTube".

It's integrated into " Google Drive". It is integrated into every service such as " Maps" that people use billions of times a day. So Google was able to catch up at a pace that was not normally expected.

所以,Google 处于一个拥有所有正确要素的位置,但它一直在追赶“ChatGBT”。他们总是慢了一点。在上一期节目中,我说过 Google 落后了,但我不会卖出它的股票。我持有大量 Google 股票。

这是我最大的投资持仓。我在其中投资了 20 万美元,我不会卖出一股,正是因为我相信情况可能迅速改变,即使 Google 目前落后。

So, Google is in a position where it has all the right ingredients, but it has kept chasing after " ChatGBT". They were always a little late . In my previous episode, I said that Google is behind, but I will not sell its shares.

I own a lot of Google shares. It's my largest investment share. I have a $200,000 investment in it, and I will not sell a single share, specifically because I believe things could change quickly, even if Google is currently lagging behind.

昨天情况似乎又迅速发生了变化。Sundar 昨天在 X 平台上发帖说,他将公布 Gemini 4。它的代号是“Argon”,是 Google 的下一代旗舰模型。他们还提供了 Gemini 4 的性能基准。

当对他们真正擅长的领域和不擅长的领域进行更全面的分析时,结果发现它极其全面均衡。事实上,我把这些基准输入 ChatGPT 和 Muse,以获取它们作为竞争对手的不带偏见的意见,两者都表示,如果这些基准属实,Gemini 4 将成为世界上最全面整合的代理技术。

它并非在一切方面都最好,但在许多方面最好,而且在一切方面都非常出色。他们说它在通过真实世界软件工程运行复杂流程方面,以及在法律、金融和网络安全防御等企业知识工作方面,都有开创性的记录。

你可能会嘲笑这些标准,但这很重要。许多公司、用户和组织根据模型的能力来决定使用哪一个。哪一个能高效且在合理时间内完成所需任务?哪一个提供最好的价格?

It seemed as though things had changed rapidly again yesterday. Sundar posted yesterday on the X platform that he will be announcing the Gemini 4. It is codenamed "Argon" and is Google's next flagship model.

They also provided the performance benchmarks for Gemini 4. When a more comprehensive analysis is conducted of the areas where they actually excel and those where they don't, it turns out to be incredibly well-rounded.

In fact, I entered these benchmarks into ChatGPT and Muse to get their unbiased opinions as competitors, and both indicated that if these benchmarks are true, Gemini 4 will be the most fully integrated proxy technology in the world.

He is not the best at everything, but he is the best at many things and very good at everything. They say he has a pioneering track record in running complex processes through real-world software engineering, and in corporate knowledge work such as law, finance, and defense in cybersecurity.

You may laugh at these standards, but this is important. Many companies, users, and organizations decide which model to use based on its capabilities. Which one accomplishes the required task efficiently and in a reasonable time? Which one offers the best price?

许多人再次质疑 Google。就连网站“SemiAnalyses”也写了一篇文章。那是在 8 月 6 日,当时他说 Gemini 已经完了。在那篇文章的一部分中,他们说 Google 再次拥有创业型模型的机会是 0%。

而现在我们有了 Gemini 4,按照这些标准,它很可能成为最好或最好的模型之一,而且它肯定是其他开创性模型的竞争者。Google 正式不再落后了。Google 已经追赶上来。

他们与其他创业型模型处于同一水平。所以,这本身就很重要。

Many people have questioned Google again. Even the website "SemiAnalyses" wrote an article. That was on August 6, when he said that Gemini was finished. In one part of that article, they said that Google's chance of ever having an entrepreneurial model again is 0%.

And here we are with the Gemini 4, and according to the standards, it is very likely to be the best or one of the best models, and it is certainly a competitor to other pioneering models.

Google is officially no longer behind. Google has caught up. They are on the same level as other entrepreneurial models. So, this is important in itself.

然而,还有另一件事正在发生,让我对这两家公司尤其乐观,即 Google 和 Meta。我在这两家公司上全仓投入。我在 Google 和 Meta 上的合计投资为 40 万美元。

这说明在这件事上我是对的有多么重要。但我认为 Google 和 Meta 有望成为人工智能领域最大的赢家,甚至超过 Anthropic 和 OpenAI。

However, there is something else happening that makes me more optimistic about these two companies in particular, Google and Meta. I am fully invested in these two companies. I have a combined investment of $400,000 between Google and Meta.

This illustrates how important it is for me to be right about this matter. But I think Google and Meta are poised to be the biggest winners in the field of artificial intelligence, even more so than Anthropic and OpenAI.

现在,把它与 Google 和 Meta 的情况相比。Google 和 Meta 的服务是免费的。

Now, compare that to the situation with Google and Meta. Google and Meta services are free.

当 Sander 公布“Gemini 4”时,他说其推介价格基本上将是“Anthropic”同类产品价格的一半。作为推介优惠打 5 折。现在,我们不知道这个推介折扣何时结束,但在此期间它会吸引大量开发者。

如果你以一半的成本获得几乎相同的性能,那可以为许多人节省大量资金。

When Sander announced the "Gemini 4", he said its introductory price would be essentially half the price of a similar product from "Anthropic". 50% discount as an introductory offer.

Now, we don't know when this introductory discount will end , but it will attract a lot of developers in the meantime. If you get virtually identical performance at half the cost, that could save a lot of money for many people.

Google 如何负担得起这一点?就 Google 而言,他们不需要从 Gemini 直接获得财务利润。当投资者审视 Google 时,他们会注意到该公司拥有许多资产,这些资产间接受益于其在人工智能领域的领导地位。

Google 把 Gemini 视为 Google 生态系统的又一个组成部分。Google 有云托管服务。他们有一整个部门专门制造电子芯片。他们有人工智能和“DeepMind”,然后他们还有 YouTube 和 Waymo、搜索引擎、商业应用、Gmail,这个名单还在继续。

Google 大约有九个不同的应用被超过十亿人使用。它是一家业务庞杂且利润丰厚的公司,他们没有从 Gemini 获取巨额短期利润的压力。

How can Google afford this? Well, as far as Google is concerned, they don't need to make a direct financial profit from Gemini . When investors look at Google, they notice that the company has many assets that indirectly benefit from its leadership in artificial intelligence.

Google views Gemini as just another part of the Google ecosystem. Google has cloud hosting services. They have an entire sector dedicated to the manufacture of electronic chips.

They have artificial intelligence and " DeepMind," then they have YouTube and Waymo, a search engine, business applications, Gmail, and the list goes on. Google has about nine different apps used by more than one billion people.

It is a sprawling and highly profitable company, and they have no pressure to make huge short-term profits from Gemini.

Google 认识到“Gemini”不是最终产品。它不是他们需要借以盈利的手段。如果 Gemini 通过改进视频推荐帮助 YouTube 增长,如果它帮助 Gmail 保持市场份额并更好地投放广告,如果它帮助业务的其他方面,比如它已被整合进的搜索,那么 Gemini 就会像一道瀑布,为业务的各个部分带来利润。

Google recognizes that "Gemini" is not the final product. It is not the means by which they need to make a profit . If Gemini helps YouTube grow by improving video recommendations, if it helps Gmail maintain its market share and advertise better, and if it helps other aspects of the business such as the search it has been integrated into, then Gemini will be like a waterfall that generates profits for all parts of the business.

这正是 Muse 为 Meta 所做的事。因此,Google 和 Meta 这两家公司并不需要急于从它们的应用中盈利。它们也可以选择去争取巨大的市场份额。它们可以在每一个环节上压低 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的价格。而定价只是我认为它们会成为赢家的原因之一。

This is exactly what Muse does for Meta. So, these two companies, Google and Meta, are not in a position to rush into making profits from their applications. Alternatively, they could seek to acquire a huge market share.

They can undermine the prices of Anthropic and OpenAI at every turn. And pricing is just one aspect of the reasons why I believe they will be winners.

除了这些公司所面临的财务现实上的差异之外,还有另一个原因让我相信 Google 和 Meta 有很大的机会成为最大的 AI 公司、最大的赢家。

Aside from the differences in the financial reality these companies face, there is another reason that leads me to believe that Google and Meta have a great opportunity to become the biggest AI companies and the biggest winners.

但总体而言,ChatGPT 在全球最受欢迎的扩展程序,以及最常被使用的代理用例,是 Gmail 和 Google Drive。这就是人们使用 ChatGPT 的目的。你可能会说,很多人信任 ChatGPT,所以他们会把它与 Gmail 和 Google 联系起来。

然而,使用 Gemini 时并不存在需要弥合的信任鸿沟。你用的本来就是 Google 的产品。Google 很可能仍然有理由去启用它,但这会简单得多。你不必输入凭据,不必经过双重身份验证去问“Gmail 真的有权限访问这一切吗?”

这意味着,如果 Gemini 4 确实足够先进——看起来确实如此——你会发现它与你常用的所有应用集成起来要容易得多,其中 Google Drive 和 Gmail 是最好的两个。所以,信任因素已经被 Google 解决了。

But overall, the most popular extension in the world for ChatGPT, and the most frequently used proxy use cases, are Gmail and Google Drive. This is what people use ChatGPT for.

Now, you might say that a lot of people trust ChatGPT, so they will associate it with Gmail and Google. However, there is no trust gap to bridge when using Gemini. You are literally using a Google product.

Google will likely still have a claim to enable it, but it will be much simpler. You will not have to enter credentials. You won't have to go through two-factor authentication to say, "Hey, does Gmail really have permission to access all this?"

This will mean that if the Gemini 4 is truly advanced, which it seems to be, you will find it much easier to integrate with all the apps you usually integrate, with Google Drive and Gmail being the two best .

So, the trust factor has already been resolved by Google .

这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断

Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-01看涨本条
我将解释为什么我认为 Google 和 Meta 是最有希望在人工智能领域胜出的两家公司。
2026-09-28
我们对谷歌有一些重大疑问。它们今年没什么动作。
原话 00:08 ›
看完整历史 ›
美股听风