谷歌基本面强劲(技术栈完整、云业务同比增长82%、市场份额提升),尽管股价近期下跌,仍可能构成买入机会。
逐段跳播
例如,就 Gemini 而言,Google 曾登上新闻头条。看看 Google,对吧?Google 做得很好,因为他们从芯片到智能体这一侧所拥有的,是当今最完整的技术。
For example, for Gemini, Google was in the headlines look at Google, right ? Google is doing great because what they have, from the chip to the agent side, is the most complete technology available today.
他们正在考虑把 TPU 部署到太空。所以这件事相当清楚。人们担心的是,他们是否有足够的资金持续运转?我的意思是,他们产生的收入是否足以覆盖其计划的资本支出?答案是肯定的。
They are thinking of placing TPUs in space. So the matter is quite clear. What people are worried about is, do they have enough money to keep working? I mean, are they generating enough revenue to cover their planned capital expenditures ? And the answer is yes.
我认为年初或上半年时大家都很担心,对吧?收入支出和资本支出达到 102%,这是一个非常大的数字。你正在看的是 Google 的企业业务板块,
I think everyone was worried at the beginning of the year or the first half , right? 102% of revenue expenditure and capital expenditure , this is a very large figure. You are looking at Google's enterprise section,
对于本周出现的关于 Google 和 Gemini 的报道,以及由此产生的对其有效性的质疑,是否存在任何担忧?
Are there any concerns about the reports that have come out this week about Google and Gemini and the doubts that have arisen about their effectiveness ?
但如果你是 Google,你有自己的芯片,所以这一点就没那么重要。我认为 Google 花了更长时间,是因为他们想确保自己拥有更好的控制措施和适当的保障机制。
but if you 're Google, you have your own chips, so it's less important. And I think Google took longer because they wanted to make sure they had better controls and the right safeguards in place.
这就是为什么他们一开始有点慢,但从长远来看这对客户是好事。
And that's why they were a little slow in the beginning, but in the long run it's good for customers.
正如你从 Ray 那里听到的,他说 Google 目前所做的事情非常成功。是的 Sam,如果你看他们上一次财报活动,他们在所有品类上都实现了相当不错的增长,无论是整体广告还是云业务,云业务同比增长 82%,远超预期。
As you heard from Ray, he said that Google is very successful in what they are doing currently. Yes Sam, if you look at their last earnings event , where they had pretty good growth across all their categories , whether it's general advertising or cloud, which grew 82% year over year, which is way above expectations.
它正在那里抢占竞争对手的一部分市场份额。然后你开始看其他广告方式。他们现在有自己的芯片在对外销售。所以一切似乎都进展顺利,但该股较几个月前的高点下跌了约 15%。
It is taking some of the market share of its competitors there. And then you start looking at other methods of advertising. They now have their own chips that they are selling.
So everything seems to be going well, but the stock is down about 15% from its high a few months ago.
所以也许那里存在一个机会,但我想到了一个策略。所以我看的是中性偏多的方向,我选择了 10 月 16 日的月度期权,它们将在 2 周后到期。
So maybe there's an opportunity there, but I've thought of a strategy. So I'm looking at something from neutral to bullish, and I've gone for the October 16th monthly options that expire in 2 weeks.
他们将在 10 月底发布财报,所以我想避开那次财报事件。这可能会造成一些波动,所以我只会卖出一个虚值看跌垂直价差。
They will be releasing earnings reports at the end of October, so I would like to avoid that earnings event. This can create some volatility, so I would just sell an out-of-the-money put vertical.
我考虑过卖出340行权价的看跌期权,并买入330行权价的看跌期权。
I have considered selling the 340 strike put and buying the 330 strike put.
所以这是一个10美元的中性偏看涨看跌期权垂直价差。你可以从中收取大约3美元的权利金。你收取的权利金就是你的利润,对吧?
So a $10 neutral to bullish put vertical. You can collect about $3 worth of credit on it. The credits you collect are your profit, right?
在这个价差上,每个价差你可以赚300美元,而你的风险大约是700美元。所以风险远高于利润,但你的成功概率也更高。
You can earn $300 per spread on this spread and you have a risk of about $700. So the risk is much higher than the profit, but your chances of success are also higher.
卖出的340行权价很可能在到期时处于价外,而这正是这类策略所希望看到的。你希望它高于340。这大约是60%。所以,你的成功概率更高。
That short 340 strike is likely to be out-of-the-money at expiration, which is what you want in this type of strategy. You want it to be above 340. This is about 60%. So, your chances of success are higher.
如果你从这个价差中收取3美元的权利金,那就是你的收入,它把你的盈亏平衡点降到337美元。这大约比当前股价低2.5%。
If you collect $ 3 in credit from this spread , that is your income and it brings your break-even point down to $337. This is about two and a half percent below the current share price.
所以,虽然你有良好的前景,但在下行时你也有缓冲或安全垫。所以,如果股价上涨,你就会获利。如果股价在这个水平上高于340,甚至低于337,你都可以从这类交易中获利。
So, while you have good prospects, you also have a cushion or safety in case of a downside. So, if the stock goes up, you will profit. If the stock is above 340 at this level, or even below 337, you can profit from this type of trade.
所以,当你看到像Google Alphabet这样的股票上涨时,也许你会对自己说:“哦,我不想太激进。我不想买入任何看涨期权或看涨期权垂直价差。”
So, when you see a stock like Google Alphabet going up , where maybe you're saying to yourself, " Oh, I do n't want to be too aggressive." I don't want to buy any call or buy call vertical.
你仍然可以在这样一只高价值股票上建立方向性头寸,同时保持一定的保守。
You can still take a directional position in such a high- value name and be somewhat conservative.
回报低于你的风险,但与此同时,在这个中性偏看涨的看跌期权垂直价差中,成功概率更高。好的。Google今天早上上涨了近2%,
The reward is lower than your risk, but at the same time, the probability of success is higher in this short neutral-to- bullish put vertical. Okay. Google is up nearly 2% this morning,
观察点
这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 8 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。