Alphabet 估值偏低，未来几周可能上涨，但并无保证。尽管存在广告风险，其业务多元——从云和 AI 平台获利——并且是最有可能因 AI 模型而上涨的云公司之一，但作为超大规模云厂商，如果 AI 资本开支增长放缓，它将面临五五开的情况。
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我持仓的第二类股票是超大规模云服务商。超大规模云服务商指的是 Google、Microsoft、Amazon 和 Meta。如果你看这些公司，它们的一部分业务聚焦于 AI 资本支出和数据中心建设，对吧？
但并非全部。它们另一部分业务是通过其他方式赚钱。对 Meta 和 Google 来说，它们靠广告赚钱。当然，现在 Meta 正在进军面向消费者的 AI 智能体，以及像 Meta Glasses 这样的设备。
还有 Amazon，它靠广告、电商和物流赚钱。所以，大公司有很多很多收入来源。那么，当 AI 资本支出增长放缓时，哪些板块会受到最大冲击？最大冲击会在这里，对吧？一旦 AI 热潮放缓，所有这些都会受到更大的冲击。
那么，这部分业务会受到怎样的影响？它们的一部分业务可能会受影响，但另一部分可能表现非常好，因为当人们开始想：“如果它们在资本支出上花得更少，如果 Microsoft、Meta 和 Amazon 花得更少，那么它们的利润就会回升。”
所以，它们实际上可能表现非常好。如果 AI 资本支出增长放缓，它们可能表现非常好。也可能不会。所以，这有点像是五五开的情况，因为它们一只脚在 AI 里，一只脚在 AI 支出之外。
The second category of my stocks is the hyperscalers . Hyperscalers are Google, Microsoft, Amazon , and Meta. Now, if you look at these companies, part of their business is focused on AI capital expenditure and building data centers , right?
But not all of it. Another part of their business is making money in other ways. For Meta and Google, they make money from Advertising. And of course, now Meta is moving into consumer AI agents , and into devices like Meta Glasses, okay?
You have Amazon, which makes money from advertising, e-commerce, and logistics. So, large companies have many, many revenue streams. So, when AI capital expenditure growth slows , which sectors will take the biggest hit?
The biggest hit will be here, right? All of these will take a bigger hit once the AI hype slows, okay? Now, how will that part be affected? Well, part of their business might be affected, but another part might do very well , because when people start thinking, "Well, if they're spending less on capital expenditure, if Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are spending less, then their profits will go back up."
So, they could actually do very well . They could do very well if AI capital expenditure growth slows . Or they might not, okay? So, this is a bit of a 50/50 situation because they have one foot in AI and one foot out of AI spending, okay?
给你大致看一下我的持仓组合，就像我说的，我赚得最多的几只股票是 Fortnite。你可以看到上面 Fortnite 涨了212%。我持有 Palo Alto，涨了148%，CrowdStrike 涨了217%，当然，那些大公司也贡献得不错。
Amazon 涨了119%，Alphabet（Google）涨了221%，Nvidia 涨了209%，MetaTrader 涨了114%，Microsoft 涨了67%，还有一些我持有的其他抗泡沫股票，比如医疗保健板块的 United Health，涨了26%，之前还更高，但后来小幅回落。
我可能会加仓 UnitedHealth，HCA Healthcare 涨了32%，GlobalX Defense 涨了17%，
To give you a glimpse of the portfolio, like I said, my biggest winners are Fortnite. You can see Fortnite up there, 212%. I have Palo Alto up 148%, CrowdStrike up 217%, and of course, the big companies are contributing well.
Amazon up 119%, Alphabet ( Google) up 221%, Nvidia up 209%, MetaTrader up 114%, Microsoft up 67%, and some of my other anti-bubble stocks like healthcare, United Health, up 26%, was even higher but has since dipped slightly.
I could add more to UnitedHealth, HCA Healthcare up 32%, and GlobalX Defense up 17%,
对，Google，不是吗？Alphabet。Alphabet 曾经……哦，Alphabet 现在被低估了，不是吗？它之前被高估，后来跌破了374的内在价值。你可以清楚地看到那些涨跌波动：涨、跌，然后又涨。
它现在处于盘整阶段，未来几周很可能会继续上涨，不是吗？所以，这很好。这只股票被低估了，但还没完全到支撑位。事实上，它已经从支撑位反弹，很可能会再次突破那个位置。但话说回来，没有什么是保证的。我们只看趋势，只看内在价值。
Yes, Google, isn't it? Alphabet. And Alphabet was ... oh, Alphabet is undervalued now, isn't it? It was overvalued, then fell below its intrinsic value of 374. You can clearly see the ups and downswing: up, down, then up again.
It's in a consolidation phase , and it's likely to rise further in the next couple of weeks, is n't it? So, that's good. This is undervalued , and not quite at the support level.
In fact, it has bounced off the support level and may well break above that level again. But again, there are no guarantees. We only look at the trend, and we look at the intrinsic value.
那 Google 搜索呢？Google 搜索也可能受到影响吗？也许吧，有可能。他们的广告业务可能会受影响，但话说回来，他们的业务很分散。他们有云业务，还有很多其他东西，不是吗？
What about Google search? Could Google search also be affected? Perhaps, it's possible. Their advertising business may be affected, but again, they are diverse. They have their cloud businesses and lots of other things, don't they?
但另一方面，在面向消费者的 AI 智能体这个领域，这些股票可能会受到正面影响。比如，你自己的智能体平台和模型。Meta、Microsoft 和 Alphabet。所以，你可以再次看到，Google 在广告业务上受到冲击，但它从云业务和它的代理平台上获利。这就是为什么它的业务如此分散。
But on the other hand, these are the stocks that could be positively impacted in the world of consumer-oriented AI agents. For example, your own agent platforms and models. Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet.
So, you can see again, Google is hurting in advertising, but it's profiting from the cloud and its proxy platforms. That's why it's so very diverse .
第二个篮子将是我提到的大型云计算公司，Microsoft、Google 和 Meta，我认为它们目前上涨的机会最大，因为它们的 Muse 智能体以及几款新的领先 AI 模型的发布。
The second basket will be the big cloud computing companies I mentioned, Microsoft, Google and Meta, which I think have the biggest chance of rising right now because of their Muse agent and the launch of several of their new leading AI models.
这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断
Adam Khoo 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。