$GOOGL · Daniel Pronk · 2026-10-28
在2026年第三季度后下跌11%之后,Google 估值合理,约为经营利润的24.5倍,接近其10年均值,因此说话者不认为它被高估;营收增长25%,经营利润增长30%,其中 Cloud 增长103%且利润率扩大。但核心搜索/YouTube/订阅增长放缓至11%,去年同期为14%,Meta 增长超过25%,并可能在两个季度内在广告收入上超过 Google,且负自由现金流预计将持续;他更看好更便宜的 Meta 和 Amazon,不会加仓 Google。
逐段跳播
Google 刚刚公布第三季度业绩后,其股价目前下跌超过 11%。显然,市场不喜欢这份财报中的内容,尽管 Google Cloud 同比增长超过 100%,无论以什么标准衡量这都很惊人。
Google's stock is down more than 11% right now after the company just announced its third-quarter results . Clearly, the market did not like what it saw in this report, despite Google Cloud growing by more than 100% year-on-year, which is crazy by any measure.
这也意味着 Google 的股价正从历史高点回调约 30%,这意味着这是该股过去十年中最大的回调之一。所以在今天的视频中,我想回顾 Google 2026 年第三季度的财报业绩,并解释所有正面和负面的方面。
This also means that Google's stock is correcting by about 30% from its all-time highs, which means it is one of the biggest corrections the stock has seen in the past decade. So in today’s video, I want to review Google’s earnings results for the third quarter of 2026 and explain all the positive and negative aspects.
我在看 Google 的财报时,一开始非常好,但越往下读,我发现越来越多让我想说“哦,市场大概率不会喜欢这个”的地方。
When I was reviewing Google's earnings report , it started off very well, but as I continued reading, I found more and more things that made me say, "Oh, the market probably isn't going to like this."
所以在我看来,目前盘后抛售有一些理由,但我们会讨论我是否认为它过度了,以及 Google 股票现在看起来是否便宜。
So in my opinion, there are some justifications for the after-hours selling right now, but we'll discuss whether I think it's overdone and whether Google stock looks cheap right now.
好,我们从最上面开始看,可以看到营收同比增长25%,达到1276亿美元,这意味着Google的营收仍在继续加速增长。
Okay, let's start from the top here, where we can see that revenues rose by 25% year-over-year to $127.6 billion , which means that Google's revenues continue to accelerate.
Google服务业务营收增长11%,其中Google搜索引擎增长12%。不过,Google Cloud营收增长了103%。这简直太疯狂了,而且Google Cloud的营收增速还在继续加快。
Google's services revenue rose by 11%, with Google's search engine growing by 12%. However, Google Cloud revenues increased by 103%. This is absolutely crazy, and Google Cloud's revenue growth rates continue to accelerate.
这里需要注意的是,Tensor Processing Unit(TPU)的销售现在已计入Google Cloud营收,而营收加速增长的一部分原因,是这个数字里包含了某种新的收入来源。
What should be noted here is that sales of Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) are now included in Google Cloud revenue, and part of the accelerated revenue growth is due to the presence of some kind of new revenue stream in this figure.
总体来看,Google目前的年化营收规模已达到5000亿美元,Sander表示,AI投资正推动搜索查询量创下历史新高。他还告诉我们,“Gemini”服务已达到10亿用户,成为Google历史上增长最快的产品。
YouTube现在拥有超过1.5亿付费订阅用户。
Overall, Google has now reached an annual revenue rate of $500 billion, and Sander says that AI investments are driving up search queries to all-time highs . He also shares with us that the "Gemini" service has reached one billion users, making it the fastest-growing product in Google's history.
YouTube now has more than 150 million paid subscribers.
总体来看,Google Cloud在这里表现突出,而Google其余业务的增长要慢得多,这一点我们稍后再讨论。
Overall, Google Cloud stands out here, while the rest of Google's business is growing much more slowly, which we will discuss later.
看下一张截图,我们再次看到营收增长了25%,而去年总营收增长为15%。因此,Google的整体营收正在显著加速。
Moving to the next screenshot, we can again see that revenues have increased by 25% compared to 15% growth in total revenues last year. Therefore, Google's overall revenue is experiencing a significant acceleration.
公司还实现了406亿美元的营业利润,营业利润率为32%,营业利润率也同比扩大。整体营业利润同样增长了30%。不过,我们可以看到净利润和每股收益同比出现下降。新闻标题、分析师和市场都不会喜欢这一点,但这目前确实是一个没有意义的指标。
The company also achieved $40.6 billion in operating income with an operating profit margin of 32%, with the operating profit margin expanding year on year as well. Overall operating income also increased by 30%.
However, we can see that net income and earnings per share have decreased on a year-on-year basis. The headlines, analysts, and the market won't like this, but it's really a meaningless metric at the moment.
由于未实现的投资损益,Google目前的盈利波动很大。因此,利润目前并不是衡量或反映公司真实盈利能力的良好指标。
Google now has significant fluctuations in its earnings due to unrealized investment gains . Therefore, profits are not a good measure or reflection of the company's true profitability right now.
有意思的是,Google第三季度的经营性现金流实际上同比减少了约60亿美元,但年初至今仍保持高位,目前为1270亿美元。
Interestingly, Google's operating cash flow actually fell by about $6 billion year-over-year in the third quarter, but it remains high since the beginning of the year and now stands at $127 billion.
在我看来,市场不会喜欢经营性现金流下降,尤其是Google在资本支出上投入如此之大的时候。不过,现在现金流里也有很多噪音,就像盈利一样。也正如Meta本季度现金流量表中存在大量噪音一样。
In my opinion, the market will not like a decrease in operating cash flows, especially when Google invests so much in capital expenditures. However, there is a lot of noise in the cash flows now as well, just like the earnings.
And also just as there was a lot of noise in Meta's cash flow statement this quarter.
例如,应收账款带来15亿美元的负面影响,库存增长带来27亿美元的影响,本季度已缴所得税增加带来30亿美元的影响,其他资产投资带来78亿美元的影响,其他负债则有91亿美元的差异。
因此,Google面临来自应收账款、公司纳税时点、增加库存以及偿还部分债务的阻碍。
For example, there is a negative impact of $1.5 billion from accounts receivable, $2.7 billion from inventory growth, $3 billion from increased income taxes paid this quarter, $7.8 billion from other asset investments, and a $9.1 billion difference in other liabilities.
Therefore, Google faced obstacles from accounts receivable, the timing of the company's tax payments, building more inventory, and paying off some debts.
年初以来情况一直如此,但现金流自年初以来仍保持高位。不过目前我认为,营业利润可能是衡量Google价值最清晰的指标。
This is the same story since the beginning of the year, but cash flows have remained high since the beginning of the year. But at the moment, I think operating income might be the clearest measure of Google's value.
不过,公司同时还有负的自由现金流。这是我认为市场不会喜欢的另一点。本季度它产生了90亿美元的负自由现金流,年初至今为负40亿美元。
However, the company also has negative free cash flow . And this is another thing I think the market will not like. It has generated $9 billion in negative free cash flow this quarter, and negative $4 billion year to date .
他们显然还停止了股票回购,因为今年迄今为止他们已通过稀释筹集了420亿美元现金。Google也已开始降低股东的持股比例,因为其业务正在产生负的自由现金流,需要额外的流动性来继续投资人工智能开发。
They also halted share buybacks, obviously, because they have raised $42 billion in cash through dilution so far this year. Google has also begun reducing its shareholders' stakes , as its business is generating negative free cash flow and needs additional liquidity to continue investing in artificial intelligence development.
因此,Google与Meta和Amazon类似,为了建设AI基础设施而变成了负自由现金流。我认为,投资者应预期这种情况在可预见的未来会持续下去。
Therefore, Google is similar to Meta and Amazon, as it has become negative free cash flow in order to build AI infrastructure. I believe that investors should expect this situation to continue for the foreseeable future.
接着看下一部分,以下截图来自本季度的财报演示。我们再次看到营收增长25%,Google搜索增长12%,Google Cloud增长103%,Gemini用户达10亿,每分钟处理320亿个token,较上一季度增长40%,是第一季度数字的两倍。
另外,Google拥有1.5亿YouTube Premium订阅用户。
Moving on to the next , the following screenshots are from this quarter's earnings presentation. Once again, we see revenue growth of 25%, Google search growth of 12%, Google Cloud growth of 103%, one billion Gemini users, and 32 billion tokens per minute, up 40% from the previous quarter and double the number from the first quarter.
And again, Google has 150 million YouTube Premium subscribers.
所以,整体业务仍在增长,而云业务的增长令人惊叹。
So, the business as a whole is still growing, and the growth of the cloud business is amazing.
转到下一部分,我们看到订阅收入同比增长了11%。Google的网络业务增长了1%,YouTube广告收入增长了9%,Google搜索又增长了12%。我认为这一组业务和收入是Google的核心业务,整体上它同比增长了11%。
Moving to the next segment, we see that subscription revenues increased by 11% year-on-year. Google's network rose by 1%, YouTube's ad revenue increased by 9%, and Google search rose again by 12%.
I consider this group of businesses and revenues to be Google's core activities, and as a whole it has grown by 11% year-over-year.
它的增速也放缓到了11%,而去年是14%。因此,除了Google Cloud之外,Google的收入正经历明显放缓,增速处于较低的两位数水平。这是我认为市场不会喜欢的另一点。
Its growth rates also slowed to 11%, compared to 14% last year. Thus, Google, with the exception of Google Cloud, is experiencing a significant slowdown in revenue and low double-digit growth.
This is another thing I think the market won't like.
不过,核心业务的营业利润率扩大到了40.7%,这一组业务的营业利润同比增长了16.7%。转到下一页,我们看到Google Cloud的收入和营业利润。如你所见,这一块正在爆发式增长。
收入增速加快到了103%,营业利润率扩大到了36.2%。这意味着Google Cloud的营业利润同比增长了208%,这简直疯狂。
However, the operating margin for the core business expanded to 40.7% , and the operating income for this group grew by 16.7% year-on-year. Moving to the next slide, we see Google Cloud's revenue and operating income.
As you can see, this sector is experiencing explosive growth. Revenues accelerated to a growth rate of 103% and the operating margin expanded to 36.2%. This means that Google Cloud's operating income has grown by 208% year-over-year, which is absolutely insane.
这张幻灯片还告诉我们,Google Cloud现在已经成为Google整个业务增长的主要驱动力。
This slide also shows us that Google Cloud has now become the main driver of growth for Google's entire business.
我还做了一些图表,展示Google核心业务自2025年第三季度以来的历史增速。所以我回过头把过去一年的每一份季报都看了一遍,来向大家展示Google核心业务放缓了多少。
I've also set up some charts of historical growth rates for Google's core business since the third quarter of 2025. So, I went back and reviewed every quarterly report over the past year to show you how much Google's core business has slowed down.
订阅收入去年第三季度增长了21%,YouTube广告增长了15%。搜索收入也在第一季度以19%的增速见顶,之后现在放缓到了12%。你可以清楚地看到,Google的核心业务正在放缓,
Subscription revenue grew by 21% last year in the third quarter, and YouTube ads saw growth of 15%. Search revenues also peaked in the first quarter with 19% growth , then have now slowed to 12%.
As you can clearly see , Google's core business is slowing down,
这也很有意思,因为Meta的业务持续实现超过20%的增速,并保持在25%左右的增长。所以在我看来,Google的广告业务在放缓,而Meta继续以超过25%的速度增长,这让Meta的业绩相比之下显得好得多。
which is also interesting because Meta's business continues to achieve growth rates exceeding 20% and maintains growth of around 25%. So, to me, the fact that Google's advertising activities are slowing down while Meta continues to grow by more than 25% makes Meta's earnings look much better by comparison.
这是我准备的另一张图,用来展示这一大幅放缓,你可以清楚地看到,自今年第一季度以来,增速已明显下降。我认为这是本季度市场不会喜欢的主要一点。
This is another graph I have prepared to illustrate the substantial slowdown, and you can clearly see that since the first quarter of this year, growth rates have declined significantly.
I think this is one of the main things that the market will not like this quarter.
换个话题,我们来谈谈Google的资本支出。这里你可以看到资本支出正在爆发式增长,上一季度达到了513亿美元。资本支出同比增长了114%,再次导致Google本季度的自由现金流为负。
Moving on to another topic, let's talk about Google's capital expenditures. Here you can see that capital expenditures are increasing explosively, reaching $51.3 billion in the last quarter .
Capital expenditures grew by 114% year-over-year, once again causing Google's free cash flow to be negative for the quarter.
下一张幻灯片展示了经营现金流和自由现金流的走向。我们可以看到经营现金流同比下降了13%,而自由现金流转为负值。这同样是这份财报中市场不会喜欢的又一点。
The following slide shows us the direction of operating cash flows and free cash flows. We can see that operating cash flow decreased by 13% year-on-year, while free cash flow turned negative.
And this, again, is another thing the market will not like in this earnings report.
我每个季度还会做的另一件事,是追踪Google、Meta和Amazon广告收入的增长。不过,第一张图是各季度广告收入的净增量。你可以看到Meta是赢家。Meta第三季度广告收入增加了130亿美元,而Google为78亿美元。
这意味着Meta正在比Google吸引更多的广告资金,而且现在增长更快。
Another thing I do every quarter is track the growth of advertising revenue for Google, Meta, and Amazon. However, this first graph is the net additions in advertising revenue for each quarter .
You can see that Meta is the victor. Meta added $13 billion in advertising revenue in the third quarter compared to $7.8 billion for Google. This means that Meta is attracting more advertising dollars than Google and is growing faster now.
我也对过去12个月的数据做了同样的处理。这里你可以看到,Meta正在追赶Google的广告业务。按这个速度,Meta有望在未来两个季度超过Google。这将正式使Meta成为全球最大的数字广告公司。而且,我认为这会很快发生。
I also do the same thing with the figures for the past 12 months . Here you can see that Meta is following Google's advertising activity. At this rate, Meta is on track to overtake Google in the next two quarters.
This will officially make Meta the world's largest digital advertising company. And again, I think this will happen very soon.
下一张幻灯片展示了这些公司自2021年第二季度开始追踪这些指标以来广告收入的总增长。这里我们可以看到Meta继续强劲增长,而你可以注意到Google的广告业务正在放缓。自2021年第二季度以来,Meta整体增长了131%,而Google为100%。
The next slide shows the total growth in advertising revenue for these companies since the second quarter of 2021 when they began tracking these metrics. Here we can see that Meta continues to grow strongly, while you can notice that Google's advertising activity is slowing down.
Meta has achieved overall growth of 131% compared to 100% for Google since the second quarter of 2021.
那么,我们现在简单谈谈Google的估值。在这份报告之前的十二个月里,公司产生了1570亿美元的营业利润。考虑到该股目前在盘后交易中下跌了11%,这使Google的估值约为营业利润的24.5倍。
So, let's now talk briefly about the evaluation of Google. Well, in the twelve months since this report, the company has generated operating income of $157 billion. This puts Google at about 24.5 times operating income when we take into account the stock's 11% drop in after-hours trading now.
在Stock Unlock平台上,我们可以看到Google过去十年的长期平均市价与经营现金流之比约为24.3,这意味着Google现在已回到其历史平均的市价与营业利润倍数。这也意味着Google的估值溢价现在几乎消失了。
Here on the Stock Unlock platform, we can see that Google’s long-term average price-to-operating cash flow over the past decade is around 24.3, meaning that Google is now back to its historical average price-to-operating income multiple.
This also means that Google's price premium has almost disappeared now.
如果它能继续保持这个倍数,股价应该会跟随底层业务及其底层营业利润的增长。所以,就我个人而言,我不认为Google在这里被高估了。而且在我看来,它现在似乎得到了合理的评估。尤其是因为“Google Cloud”正在大幅增长。
If it can maintain this multiplier going forward, the share price should follow the growth of the underlying business and its underlying operating income. So , personally, I don't think Google is overrated here.
And now it seems to be fairly assessed in my opinion. Especially since "Google Cloud" is growing tremendously.
好,我刚听完电话会议,有几个要点想快速补充到这个视频里,因为Google的股票在会议期间一直在下跌。以下是我的快速笔记。
Okay , I just finished listening to the conference call, and I have a few highlights I want to quickly add to this video because Google's stock was dropping during the call. Here are my quick notes.
第一点是,Google表示未来利润率将受到影响,尤其是今年第四季度,因为他们正在使用更多第三方计算资源,而这些资源没有出现在第三季度的数据中。
The first point is that Google stated that margins will be affected in the future, especially in the fourth quarter of this year, because they are using more third-party computing resources that did not appear in the third quarter figures.
他们还表示,建设大规模基础设施会影响利润和亏损,因为随着他们所有的资本支出和人工智能开发,折旧会持续上升。他们维持了2026年资本支出指引在区间内,但表示2027年的支出将大幅增加,正如Meta也暗示的那样。
They also stated that building massive infrastructure will impact profits and losses as depreciation continues to rise as a result of all their capital expenditures and development of artificial intelligence.
They kept their 2026 capital expenditure guidance within range, but said 2027 spending would increase significantly, just as Meta also indicated.
如前所述,本季度的库存增加也是为了Tensor Processing Units(TPU),这对经营现金流造成了显著影响。
As discussed, inventory building this quarter was also for Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), which significantly impacted operating cash flows.
对于第四季度营收,由于汇率波动,他们将面临更大的逆风,这将对YouTube和搜索产生尤其强烈的影响。因此,我们可能会看到YouTube和搜索的增速在第四季度进一步放缓。
For fourth-quarter revenue, they will face greater headwinds due to currency fluctuations, which will have a particularly strong impact on YouTube and search. Therefore, we may see YouTube and search growth rates slow down further in the fourth quarter.
他们随后表示,人工智能的需求仍远远超过供给,这就是公司大举投资资本支出和AI开发的原因,因为他们仍在错失潜在收入。
They then said that demand for artificial intelligence still far exceeds supply, which is why the company is investing heavily in capital expenditures and AI development because they are still missing out on potential revenue.
最后,他们表示,AI模式查询的增长对搜索收入的增长产生了负面影响,尤其是因为迄今为止AI模式的变现能力低于搜索。市场对此并不喜欢,也没有做出良好反应,因为Google实质上承认了其AI模式会降低搜索收入和盈利能力。
Finally, they said that the growth of AI-mode queries has negatively impacted the growth of search revenue , especially since monetization from AI-mode is lower than it is in search so far.
The market did not like this or react well to it, because Google essentially acknowledges that its AI model reduces search revenue and profitability.
和往常一样,我制作了最后一页幻灯片,总结我对Google以及这份财报的想法和结论。从最上面说起,Google Cloud的增长非常惊人,无疑是本季度的亮点。Google Cloud的收入同比翻倍,利润率在扩大,季度收入达到307亿美元。
As always, I created a final slide summarizing my thoughts and conclusions about Google and this earnings report. Starting at the top, Google Cloud's growth has been phenomenal and was certainly the highlight of this quarter.
Google Cloud's revenue is doubling year-on-year as margins expand and it achieves $30.7 billion in quarterly revenue .
不过,Google Cloud的收入现在包含了Tensor Processing Units(TPU)的销售,这有助于加速整体收入增长。Google Cloud如今已成为整个Google业务的增长引擎。
However, Google Cloud's revenue now includes sales of Tensor Processing Units ( TPUs), which helps to accelerate overall revenue. Google Cloud has now become the growth engine for the entire Google business.
然而,Google的传统核心业务正在放缓,而且速度相当快,尤其是从今年年初开始。YouTube的广告收入已回落至不到10%的增长,搜索和订阅的增长也在放缓。这正好印证了聊天机器人和大语言模型会拖慢Google搜索速度的说法。
However, Google's traditional core business is slowing down, and quite rapidly, especially since the beginning of this year. YouTube's advertising revenue has returned to growth of less than 10%, and search and subscription growth is also slowing down.
This feeds into the narrative that chatbots and large language models slow down Google's search speed.
换句话说,如果没有Google Cloud,Google的业绩数据会真正令人失望,股市可能已经惩罚了它。
In other words, without Google Cloud , Google's numbers would have been truly disappointing, and the stock market might have punished it.
同样明显的是,Meta正在数字广告领域胜出,并吸引更多广告收入。市场不会喜欢经营现金流和利润下滑,但在我看来,目前这毫无道理。经营利润似乎是目前评估Google的最佳指标。
It is also clear that Meta is winning in the field of digital advertising and attracting more advertising revenue. The market will not like a decline in operating cash flow and profits, but in my opinion it makes no sense at the moment.
Operating income appears to be the best metric for evaluating Google at the moment.
尽管如此,总体而言,Google的业务仍然增长得非常好。我的意思是,再说一次,收入增长了25%,经营利润增长了30%,同时,我认为股价溢价现在已经消退。该股目前的估值看起来是合理的,约为经营利润的24.5倍,至少在我看来是这样,尤其是与市场历史上对这项业务的估值方式相比。
Despite this, overall, Google's business is still growing very well . I mean, again, revenue grew by 25 % and operating income grew by 30%, and at the same time , I think the share price premium has now faded.
The stock appears fairly valued at around 24.5 times operating income, at least in my opinion, especially compared to how the market has historically valued this business.
如果你还考虑到Google的业务正在加速并变得更加多元化,你可能会认为,与其历史相比,它仍应以过去大约六个月一直保持的溢价进行交易。
If you also take into account that Google's business is accelerating and becoming more diversified, you could argue that, compared to its history, it should still be trading at the premium it has been at for roughly the past six months.
但总体而言,我仍然认为Meta和Amazon更便宜,我的重点将是在我的投资组合中买入更多Amazon和Meta的股票,而不是在这里加仓Google,原因很简单,我认为那些公司仍然提供大得多的价值。
But overall, I still think Meta and Amazon are cheaper, and my focus will be on buying more Amazon and Meta shares in my portfolio rather than adding more Google here, simply because I think those companies still offer much greater value.