$GOOGL · Ale's World of Stocks · 2026-11-01
GOOGL财报后下跌——一个月内约20%、较高点跌超30%——是明显的低价买入机会。GAAP每股收益下滑主要来自82亿美元未实现投资损失,而核心经营利润增长30%至超405亿美元,营收增长25%至超1275亿美元。自由现金流为负反映的是主动的AI资本开支,订单簿超5000亿美元;云收入翻倍、增长103%至超300亿美元。TPU销售额预计明年从30亿美元增至250亿美元,即便按分析师最低的12个月目标价也意味着翻倍以上;PEG约0.5,估值便宜。
逐段跳播
无论如何,这就引出了我们今天第三只也是最后一只股票,也是我们风险最低的选择。这家公司不仅是地球上规模最大、实力最强的公司之一,而且在本周公布财报后,它正经历那种罕见的、总是值得把握的下跌。
它就是互联网科技巨头 Google,股票代码是 (GOOGL)。
In any case, this now leads us to our third and final stock for today, which is our least risky option. This company is not only one of the largest and most powerful companies on Earth, but after announcing its earnings this week, it is experiencing one of those rare dips that are always worth taking advantage of.
It is the internet technology giant, Google, and its trading symbol is (GOOGL).
现在看股票走势图,我们可以看到财报公布后的抛售有多猛烈,仅在过去一个月里就让这只股票下跌了约20%。再说一次,这是一只很少下跌的股票,但当它像现在这样下跌、较高点跌超30%时,这就是那种你确实应该把握的机会。
我们说的是数千亿美元在几天之内就从市值中完全蒸发了。
Now, looking at the stock chart, we see how harsh the sell-off was after the earnings announcement, causing the stock to drop by about 20% in the last month alone. Again, this is a stock that rarely falls in the base, but when it does, as it is now, down more than 30% from its highs, it is one of those opportunities that you really should take advantage of.
We are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars that have completely vanished from the market value within days.
那么,是什么引发了华尔街的这场恐慌?这一切都归结为两条让短线交易者陷入彻底恐慌的头条新闻。第一条是,按照公认会计原则计算的每股收益(GAAP EPS)同比下降26%,同时也低于分析师的预期。
第二条是,Google 的自由现金流转为负值,本季度亏损超过90亿美元,而资本支出在短短三个月内飙升至514亿美元,因为它将2026年的 AI 支出目标上调至总计约2000亿美元。
这显然是一笔巨额数字。我并不是想淡化其中任何一点。我们这里说的是巨额支出、大量现金消耗以及利润下滑所带来的巨大波动。
So, what caused all this panic on Wall Street? Well, it all comes down to two headlines that sent short-term traders into complete panic. The first headline was a 26% year-on-year decline in earnings per share according to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP EPS), which also fell short of analysts' estimates.
The second headline is that Google's free cash flow has turned red, losing more than $9 billion in the quarter, while its capital expenditures have skyrocketed to $51.4 billion in just three months, as it raises its AI spending target for 2026 to around $200 billion in total.
This is obviously a huge amount. I am not trying to downplay any of that. We are talking here about huge fluctuations in terms of massive spending, large cash consumption, and also declining profits.
但同样,作为长期投资者,你必须能够看穿表面的头条新闻。因为当你深入研究运营细节时,你会发现其中很多根本不是表面看起来的那样。
But here again, as long-term investors, you must be able to look beyond the superficial headlines. Because when you delve into the operational details, you realize that much of this is not what it seems at all.
因为首先,每股收益的下滑与 Google 实际的日常业务运营几乎无关。那实际上只是其对外投资上的未实现账面亏损。你看,Google 持有其他科技公司的股份,比如 SpaceX。
由于其中一些股票在本季度下跌,会计规则迫使 Google 在账面上记录了82亿美元的亏损。把它与去年同期128亿美元的巨额收益相比,是的,你就得到了这近乎人为的210亿美元账面波动,这让它的财务业绩看起来相当糟糕,就这么简单。
Because, first and foremost, that decline in earnings per share had little to do with Google's actual day-to-day business operations. It was literally just an unrealized book loss on their foreign investments.
Look, Google has stakes in other technology companies such as SpaceX, for example. Because some of those shares declined during the quarter, accounting rules forced Google to record an $8.2 billion loss on paper.
When you compare that to a massive $12.8 billion gain in the same quarter last year, yes, you end up with this almost artificial book volatility of $21 billion, which makes their financial results look pretty bad, plain and simple.
但听听这个,其核心营业收入实际上同比增长了30%,超过405亿美元。仅一个季度的总营收也跃升25%,超过1275亿美元。这是惊人的表现。事实上,如果没有投资上的那部分波动,其核心净利润也会增长35%。
But listen to this, their core operating income actually rose 30% year-over-year to more than $40.5 billion. Total revenue also jumped by 25% to more than 127.5 billion for just one quarter.
This is an amazing performance. In fact, without that volatility in investments, their net core income would have also grown by 35%.
现在,第二条头条应该是,在我看来最大的担忧是负自由现金流。但即便在这里,我也明白所有这些资本支出表面上看起来很可怕,但实际上这并不是在浪费流动性来让一个混乱的业务免于彻底崩溃。
相反,Google 是一台赚钱机器。它是这个领域世界上最好的公司之一,仅在过去三个月里就从运营中产生了超过420亿美元的净现金。
Now, the second headline should be that the biggest concern, in my opinion, is negative free cash flow. But even here, I understand that all this capital expenditure seems outwardly terrifying, but in reality it is not just liquidity being wasted to keep a haphazard business from collapsing completely.
Instead, Google is a profit-making machine. It is one of the best companies in the world in this field, having generated more than $42 billion in net cash from operations in the past three months alone.
因此,自由现金流为负的唯一原因是,管理层有意把它赚到的每一美元、甚至更多,直接再投资于实体数据中心和定制芯片,这些让 Google 成为一只值得长期持有的了不起的企业。
Therefore, the only reason free cash flow is negative is that management intentionally reinvests every dollar it earns, and even more, directly into physical data centers and custom chips that make Google an incredible business to hold for the long term.
事实上,市场对其 AI 算力的需求如此巨大,以至于其订单簿实际上已经膨胀到超过5000亿美元。换句话说,企业无法满足于 Google 所提供的。因此,如果你想能够满足所有这些巨大的需求,现阶段这笔支出确实是必要的。
In fact, the demand for their AI computers is so enormous that their order book has literally ballooned to more than half a trillion dollars. In other words, companies cannot be satisfied with what Google offers.
Therefore, this spending is really necessary at this stage if you want to be able to meet all those huge demands.
坦率地说,我想问问那些悲观者:在这种情况下,你们会要求 Google 怎么做?如果企业愿意为你提供的任何服务支付超过5000亿美元,你会告诉我你会拒绝所有这些请求吗?还是你会投资自己,充分扩展业务,以便真正满足所有这些需求?
我认为,很明显,任何有一点点常识的人在这种情况下都会选择后者。而这正是 Google 所做的。
Frankly, I would like to ask the pessimists: What would you have asked Google to do in this scenario? If companies wanted to pay you more than half a trillion dollars for any service you provide, would you tell me you would refuse all those requests?
Or will you invest in yourself to expand your business sufficiently so that you can actually meet all this demand? It is clear, I think, that anyone with a modicum of sense would choose the latter option in this situation. Well, that's exactly what Google does.
而且你看,到了这一步,我认为你真的找不到任何还有分量的悲观论调了。我的意思是,对于那些长期以来一直说比如 AI 驱动的聊天机器人会杀死 Google 搜索引擎的人。看看所有这些人工智能投资已经为他们带来了什么。
通过整合人工智能,他们成功让 Google 的搜索收入实现了12%的同比增长。这极其重要。
And look, at this point, I think you really can't find any pessimistic narrative that still carries any weight here. I mean, for all those who have been saying for a long time that AI-powered chatbots, for example, will kill Google's search engine.
Look at what all these investments in artificial intelligence have already achieved for them. By integrating artificial intelligence, they succeeded in increasing Google's search revenue by a 12% year-on-year increase. It is extremely important.
所以,他们不仅没有受到阻碍,而且相对于其本已占据主导地位的规模,仍在以惊人的速度增长。事实上,Google 不仅是市场领导者,管理层还表示搜索查询量实现了五年多来最快的增长。这有多疯狂?
So, not only are they being hampered, but they are still growing at insane rates relative to their already dominant size. In fact, Google was not only a market leader, but management also indicated that search queries grew at their fastest rate in more than 5 years. How crazy is this?
结果,广告总收入也增长了11%。仅一个季度就达到近1000亿美元,同时 YouTube Music 和 Premium 的订阅用户数超过1.5亿,Gemini 月活跃用户数超过10亿,其所有模型每分钟处理320亿个 token。
As a result, total advertising revenue also increased by 11%. It reached nearly 100 billion in one quarter, while the number of YouTube Music and Premium subscribers exceeded 150 million, and the number of monthly active Gemini users exceeded one billion, processing 32 billion tokens per minute across all their models.
所以再说一次,Google 并没有被人工智能拖累。他们实际上利用它让搜索、乃至所有产品更具吸引力,从而带来比以往更多的广告点击。他们比以往任何时候都更强大。
So again, Google is not being held back by artificial intelligence. They actually use it to make the search, and indeed all their products, more appealing, which drives more clicks on ads than ever before. They are stronger than ever.
而这甚至还没有看他们的皇冠明珠,比如 Google Cloud,在那里所有这些基础设施支出将带来更大的回报。在本季度,Google Cloud 的收入不仅增长了,而且实际上翻了一番,同比增长103%,超过300亿美元。
我的意思是,对于已经是全球第三大运营商来说,这太疯狂了。
And this is even without looking at their crown jewel, such as Google Cloud, where all this infrastructure spending will pay off even more. Well, in this quarter, Google Cloud's revenues not only grew, but literally doubled, jumping 103% year-over-year to more than $30 billion.
I mean, this is crazy for what is already the third largest operator in the world.
但更疯狂、也许更奇怪的是,这如何转化为利润,因为云业务的营业利润从去年的36亿美元增长了两倍多,本季度超过111亿美元,利润率也扩大到36.2%。
But what's even crazier, and perhaps stranger, is not how this translates into profits, because the cloud's operating profit has more than tripled from $3.6 billion last year to more than $11.1 billion this quarter, with margins also expanding to 36.2%.
云业务盈利能力爆发式增长的主要驱动力,是 Google 对其硬件的处理方式,也就是其内部的张量处理单元(TPU)。
The main driver behind that explosive cloud profitability is Google’s approach to its hardware, namely its internal Tensor Processing Units (TPUs).
你看,与那些不得不花大价钱购买 Nvidia 图形处理器的其他科技巨头不同,Google 实际上也在设计自己的 AI 芯片。两者都可以用。
Look, unlike other tech giants who have to pay huge sums for Nvidia's graphics processing units, Google is actually designing its own AI silicon chips as well. They can use both.
因为他们现在在设计自己的芯片,他们的首席云业务官表示,由这些定制芯片驱动的 AI 数据中心,现在收回成本的速度是过去不得不为 Nvidia 等图形处理器支付高昂价格时的两倍。
Because they are now designing their own chips, their chief cloud officer stated that AI data centers powered by these custom chips can now recoup their costs twice as fast as when they had to pay exorbitant prices for graphics processing units like those from Nvidia.
这让他们能够在 AI 算力上打价格竞争,也让他们能够训练自己的 Gemini 模型,并以远低于许多竞争对手可能付出的成本,应对其业务和公司多样化的 AI 需求。因此,这也是一个重要的差异化因素。
This allows them to compete on price for AI computing, and also allows them to train their own Gemini models and handle the diverse AI demands of their business and company at a fraction of the cost that many competitors might have to pay.
Therefore, it is also a major differentiating factor.
正因为这一切,Google 现在也在推销这些芯片。他们正直接向 Anthropic 等外部客户出售数吉瓦的 TPU 系统,这是一条全新的收入来源,分析师预计它将从今年的 30 亿美元暴增到明年的 250 亿美元。这是巨大的增长。
Well, because of all this, Google is now also marketing these chips. They are selling several gigawatts of TPU systems directly to external customers such as Anthropic, a brand-new revenue stream that analysts expect to explode from $3 billion this year to $25 billion next year. This is tremendous growth.
展望未来,前景依然光明,分析师预测销售额将在短短两年内达到 7500 亿美元,营业收入也将迅速逼近 3000 亿美元。
Looking ahead, the outlook remains bright, with analysts predicting sales will reach three-quarters of a trillion dollars in just two years, and operating income rapidly approaching 300 billion as well.
这样的业绩并不足以支撑股价如此大幅的下跌。事实上,即便只看分析师对未来 12 个月的最低目标价,今天的股价也要上涨一倍以上,而分析师们还一致认为涨幅会超过 40%。
This is not the kind of performance that justifies such a large drop in the share price. In fact, even the lowest analyst price targets for the next 12 months alone would make today's stock price rise by more than double, with analysts also agreeing on a rise exceeding 40%.
根据 Yahoo Finance 的数据,目前的 PEG 比率只有约 0.5,对于这样规模的公司来说便宜得离谱。
According to Yahoo Finance, the rating now has a PEG ratio of only about half of one, which is insanely cheap for a company of this size.
简而言之:一个搜索垄断业务的价格非常便宜,一个规模翻倍且利润率不断提升的云业务,一款未来潜力巨大的自研芯片,在 YouTube 等多个市场上的绝对主导地位,并且与 Meta 一起在很大程度上仍是数字广告之王。
In short: a very cheap price for a search monopoly, a cloud division that is doubling in size with increasing profit margins, an internal chip with enormous future potential, absolute dominance in multiple markets such as YouTube and many others, and still largely the king of digital advertising alongside Meta.
我的意思是,这简直是我目前在整个市场上能找到的最明显的低价买入机会之一。所以我真的很喜欢它。
I mean, this is simply one of the most obvious low-price buying opportunities I can find in the entire market right now. So, I really like her.
观察点
这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断
Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。