$GOOGL · The Compound · 2026-11-03
AI 对 Google 构成威胁：AI 模式搜索的变现能力不如传统搜索，其95%的份额也保护不了股价，份额小幅流失就可能令股价腰斩。在搜索走弱之际他不想持有，也不预期近期会有转机；只有在接近215的缺口附近他才会大举买入。
逐段跳播
，这就是为什么你不能使用 alphabet、meta 或这个财报季的其他 Mac，苹果股票处于低迷，像没有其他没有看到任何可怕的反应。
, and this is why you can't use alphabet, meta or this Other Macs of the Earnings Season 7 Apple stock is in a slump like no other Didn't see any terrible reaction.
说。根据 Adam Parker 的名单，上周有 19 只股票下跌超过 10%，那些是大名字。Reddit、ServiceNow、F5、Intel、Twilio、HPQ、Marvell、FICO、Datadog、Coinbase、Google。
我是说，很多。人们拥有的股票。Robin Hood。这是灾难性的。
Say. According to Adam Parker's list, 19 stocks fell more than 10% last week , and those are big names. Reddit, ServiceNow, F5, Intel, Twilio, HPQ, Marvell , FICO, Datadog, Coinbase, Google.
I mean, Many. The shares that people own. Robin Hood. This is disastrous.
我想简要谈谈一只被打得很惨的股票，那就是 Alphabet。Alphabet 现在下跌了 30%，它在那里。这基本上就像 Covid 期间的抛售。就像，那太糟糕了。非常糟糕而且非常大。
例如，那在一天内——这是——这很糟糕。那是一天损失 5000 亿美元市值。
I want to talk briefly about a stock that He was beaten very badly, and that was it. Alphabet. Alphabet is now down 30% It is in there. This is basically like the sell-off during Covid.
Like, that's too bad. It's very bad and very big. For example, that In one day— This is—this is bad. That's a 500 billion market cap in one day. Lost.
所以，在我看来，原因就在这里。搜索和YouTube要同时达到两个目标，做不到。情况不太好，对吧？所以就是这样。没什么大不了的。但有意思的是，John，那条红线，把带红色柱子的图表调出来。
Google搜索从年初到2021年，最好的9个月正在过去。所以，干得不错。我不知道这是不是因为涨价。不，没有别的原因。点击量之类的，我不清楚你怎么想，但这挺吓人的。
So, in my opinion, here is the reason. Search and YouTube to meet both targets Couldn't. Not very good, okay? So, these are it. Big deal. But the funny thing is, John, the red line , show the chart with red bars.
Google Search from the beginning of the year to 2021 The best 9 months are passing. So, that's great work. Doing. I don't know if it's because of the price increase. No, nothing else.
I click count and all that. I don't know about you, but it's scary.
大家都知道，大家都知道原因。这不是什么谜。传统搜索相比AI结果或AI模式下的变现，转化率很低。所以就是这样。AI模式下的变现不如你打开搜索框说“我其实就想要结果”“我想要能点的链接”“我不想……”时那么好。他们赚不了那么多钱。
Everyone knows—everyone knows why. It's not a mystery. Traditional search Compared to AI results or monetization in AI mode The rate is low. So, that's it. Monetization in AI mode is not as good as when you Go to the search box and say, "I'm actually just I want the result.""
I want the link to click. "I don't want to." They can't make that much money. .
但是，Google在过了很多很多天之后刚刚发布了新版本。最好的9个月已经过去了。好吧，但我们说的是前9个月。我不这么认为。我们在期待这个季度和下一个季度。担心的是这个季度。季度自由现金流更糟了，正在发生。
实际上，这是他们自己的决定。这是他们自己的决定。他们是明知故犯。
But, Google has just released a new version after many, many days. The best 9 months have passed. Okay, but we're talking about the first 9 months. I don't think so. We are looking forward to this quarter and the next.
Worried about the quarter. Quarterly free cash flow is worse Happening. Actually, it's their own decision. This Their own decision. They knowingly It's doing it.
但重要的是，Alex Kantrowitz大概采访了OpenAI的某个人。内容在他的substack上，你也可以听播客。他们说OpenAI现在相当于Google搜索的20%。是的。
如果没有AI，那本来该发生的事，就算了。AI对Google是个威胁。我理解他们有自己的产品，但如果搜索业务存在弱点，我就不想继续持有这只股票。不管它是不是从最高点跌下来，我的意思是，它跌破30%了。
But the big thing is, Alex Kantrowitz probably told someone at OpenAI Interviewed. It's in its substack and you You can also listen to the podcast. And they said that OpenAI is now Google's 20 %Works the same as search.
Yes. If there is no AI, there is AI. supposed to happen Forget it. AI is a threat to Google. I understand that they have their own products, But if there is a weakness in the search business If so, I don't want to keep that stock.
My It doesn't matter if it's from the highest level. It drops below 30%.
实际上，关键就在这里。人们说：“他们仍然占据主导。”是的。但股市不是这样运作的。他们曾有95%的市场份额。Netflix仍然占据主导。这不是这样运作的。对，正是如此。在搜索市场10年里，他们有95%的市场份额。
而如果没有Meta在做的事，那就是历史了。那曾是最赚钱的广告产品。所以，他们在接下来的20年里继续主导。你可以继续持有，但那个数字，是的，那个数字可能下降2%，而股票可能下跌50%。
对。对。第一。第二，跑道从19降到了15，再到12。
Actually, that's the point. People say, "Well, "They still hold sway." Yes. , but The stock market doesn't work like this. They had 95% market share. Netflix still dominates. This It doesn't work like this.
That's right, exactly. 10 years in the search market They had 95% market share. And without what Meta is doing, it's history. The most profitable advertised product was. And so, they continued to dominate for the next 20 years.
You can keep it, but that number is Yes, that number could decrease by 2% and The stock could fall 50%. That's right. That's right. Number one. Number two, runway 19 It has dropped from 15 to 12.
2025年夏天，当我们哀悼失去Google的时候，AI将成为第一个大受害者，因为搜索现在正转向LLM。然后我觉得自己是个傻瓜。我在180卖掉了Google。我放弃了它。我做了同样的事。
它涨到了400。是的，不管它是什么。但事实是，我最终对了吗？不，打住。不是什么意思？不，那是交易员的职责。这是交易员的职责。但这就是我要说的。我和其他人一样担心。即使短期看是错的，如果长期看是对的呢？
我不是说我的卖出是对的。不，我没有卖。好吧，所以股票跌了，随便吧。
Find us in 2025 In the summer, when we were mourning the loss of Google AI is going to be the first big victim because The search is now moving to LLM. And then it seemed to me that I was a Fool.
I sold Google for 180. I gave it. I did the same thing. It went up to 400. Yes, whatever it is. But the truth is. Was I right in the end? No, stop. What does no mean? No, that's the job of a trader.
This is one. Trader's job. But That's all I'm saying. I was worried about it like everyone else. . Even if it's wrong in the short term, if in the long term Is that correct? I'm not saying that my sales Was it the right thing to do?
No, I didn't sell. Okay, so the stock. It's down, whatever.
比如，你可以列出你最近在Clod或ChatGPT里输入的10件事，看看。我不再用Google了。我不是那个意思。只是你，作为一个人，想想最近的10件事。问问自己，一年前，你会把多少件事放进Google搜索框？
全部。九个？是的。总之，股票跳空下跌了，已经跌了，财报发布后已经过了三天，好吧？
For example, you can list the last 10 things you Typed in Clod or ChatGPT Look at it. I don't use Google anymore. I don't mean that. Only you, As a person, the last 10 things Think about it.
Ask yourself, 1 year ago, How many would you put in the Google search box? All of them. Nine? Yes. Anyway, the stock is down with a gap. has fallen, and three days have passed since the earnings report It's done, okay?
Google，等等，Google已经跌了三天。是的，没有反弹。为什么，为什么YouTube失败了？也许这就是Netflix失败的原因。原因是一样的，Netflix就像YouTube，和它竞争，但那是reels，因为Instagram和TikTok。
对，就是这个原因。很奇怪，真的很奇怪。他们做不到。东西太多了。他们和短视频竞争。他们做不到，他们应付不了。他们试过了，而且他们实际上——有人做了——他们不说，但我说——他们实际上正在失败。完了。
Google, wait a minute, Google has been down for three days. Yes, there is no bounce. Why, why YouTube? Failed? Maybe that's why Netflix failed. The reason for this is the same, Netflix is like YouTube.
Competing with, but it's reels, Because of Instagram and TikTok. That's right, that's the reason. It's strange, really strange. They can't. There is too much of everything. They compete with short clips.
They can't, they can't cope. They tried and they actually—someone did it. They're not saying it, but I'm saying it—they're actually failing. Done.
YouTube当然非常成功。我不是在说整个业务。他们是YouTube Red，现在作为YouTube Premium推出，目标是提供高质量内容。嗯，不管怎样，那并没有很成功。没有进展。嗯，他们不是，好吧，这就是重点。
YouTube is certainly incredibly successful. I I'm not talking about the whole business. They are YouTube Red, which is now YouTube It was launched as Premium, which The goal was to provide high-quality content.
Hmm, that didn't work very well, anyhow. No progress. Hmm, they're not, okay, that's the main point.
Google在那里有一个缺口……Google在215有一个缺口。你想在哪里买这只股票？你在哪里想买这只股票？再往下。我以前买很多……要是它到了213或215就好了。如果这个2025年9月的缺口能到，那涨幅超过20%或不到22%，但我会非常乐意在那里大量买入。
Google has a gap there... There is a gap in Google's 215. Where do you want to buy the stock? Where are you? Want to buy the stock? Further down. I used to buy a lot of... If only it had reached 213 or 215.
If this In that gap of September 2025 would have reached, which is more than 20 or less than 22%, but I would be very happy to buy a lot there.
215有什么意义？那是2025年9月的缺口。你在看GOOG吗，你在看GOOG吗？是的。你去年9月又回到Google了吗？是的。
What is the significance of 215? That is the gap of September 2025. Are you watching GOOG, are you watching GOOG? Yes. And you returned to Google last September Going? Yes.
嗯，好吧，我是个做短期反弹的。为此我喜欢270这个区域。这是278。我是说，随便吧。279，嗯，那是……听我说，好吧？那是3月的最低点。阶段。3月很吓人。更低的水平，从那个水平回来是非常有意义的。
这只股票3月、5月都在270交易，一个月内涨到了400。我想让它再在270待一天。给我安静的一天，然后我就把我的，我会把270作为止损。我需要七个点来赚50个点。我愿意冒这个险。
Hmm, okay, I'm a short-term bouncer. I like this 270 area for that. This is 278. I mean, whatever. 279, hmm, that was...listen to me. , okay? That was the lowest in March. Stage.
It was terrifying in March. Lower level, and back from that level It was very significant to come. This The stock traded at 270 in March, May Within a month, it had grown to 400.
I want it to stay in room 270 for another day. Give me a quiet day, and then I will give you my I will use 270 as a stop. I need seven points to earn 50 points. I will take the risk.
好吧。嗯，我不认为那会发生，因为四个交易时段前的财报信息已经公布了，而它那一刻甚至没有转过来。不过，我对此没意见。我不这么认为。它值得转过来。在我看来，不只是数字。它值得转过来吗？
我在看它能不能活下来。我明白了。它触及了52周低点。它在不在那里？就这些。好吧。相当。十字星，但十字星，你在5秒内就会知道。它在5秒内。会发生。
Okay. Um, I don't think that will happen because Earnings information four sessions ago has been published, and it is a moment Didn't even turn around. However, I'm okay with that.
I don't think so. It is worth turning around. In my opinion, it's not just the numbers. Is it worth turning around? I'm seeing if it survives. I see. It has hit a 52-week low. Is it there or not?
That's all. Okay. Quite. Doji, but doji, you're in 5 seconds. You will know that. It's in 5 seconds. Will happen.
除了Alphabet的1310亿美元，比任何Mag Seven公司都多，还有现金。
Except for Alphabet's $131 billion, More than any Mag Seven company There is cash.