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$GOOGL

$GOOGL · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-04

AI 摘要 · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA

自2020年起持有Alphabet的投资者,尽管财报发布后股价下跌10%、搜索收入放缓,仍认可其高额AI支出:Google Cloud增长103%,TPU需求强劲,模型API使用量环比上升40%,足以支撑最高2000亿美元的资本开支;他希望支出与现金流相匹配,以避免稀释。

看涨他说的是几年内
《What's Going on With Alphabet? | GOOG Stock Deep Dive Part 1》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-11-04 · 18 段内容
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18 段内容
0:005:51

Alphabet 公布了季度财务业绩,导致其股价下跌超过10%。当然,存在许多担忧,包括因在人工智能上大规模支出而产生的负自由现金流、搜索引擎活动增速放缓,以及许多其他令投资者担忧的因素。

Alphabet announced its quarterly financial results, causing its share price to fall by more than 10%. Of course, there were many concerns, including negative free cash flow resulting from massive spending on artificial intelligence, a slowdown in the growth rate of search engine activity, and many other factors that worried investors.

所以,这就是我打算在 YouTube 上分几天进行的这次深度分析中要做的事:我会覆盖公司的业绩,深入细节,并理解和解释我对 Google 股票的看法,以及在该公司公布季度财务业绩之后正在发生什么。

So, this is what I aim to do in this in-depth analysis that will extend over several days here on YouTube, where I will cover the company’s results, delve into the details, and understand and explain what I think and what is going on regarding Google’s stock after the company announced its quarterly financial results.

公司25%的营收增长率并未打动投资者,因为总销售额已达到一个巨大的水平,年营收达5000亿美元。投资者对 Alphabet 为实现这一增长而不得不投入的资金规模并不满意。

The company’s 25% revenue growth rate did not impress investors, as total sales reached a massive level with annual revenues of half a trillion dollars. Investors are unimpressed by the amount of money Alphabet has to spend to achieve this growth.

管理团队表示,搜索的同比增长率是5年来最高的。但搜索引擎收入的增长已明显放缓。

The management team stated that the year-on-year growth rate of searches is the highest it has been in 5 years. But the growth in search engine revenue has slowed considerably.

如果人们的搜索量比以往任何时候都多,为什么收入却在放缓?管理层表示,原因是人们更多使用人工智能模式进行搜索,而这种模式并未产生足够的财务回报。

If people are searching more than ever before, why are revenues slowing down? The administration said the reason is that people are searching more using artificial intelligence mode, which does not generate sufficient financial returns.

管理团队一直在测试某些系统和方法,以将人工智能环境中的互动变现,而这尚未完全优化以实现最大财务收益,对吧?在 Google 实现有效的盈利水平。

The management team has been testing certain systems and methods to monetize interaction with the AI environment, and this has not been fully optimized for maximum financial benefit, has it?

Reaching effective levels of profitability in Google.

这就是搜索引擎收入放缓的原因;因为更多人进行的是某种形式的检索,而这种检索产生的收入不如传统 Google 搜索引擎结果可能带来的那么多。

This is why search engine revenues have slowed down; Because more people are engaging in a form of research that does not generate as much revenue as traditional Google search engine results might.

目前,Alphabet 最大的亮点是 Google Cloud,其收入增长了103%。

Right now, Alphabet's biggest bright spot is Google Cloud, where revenues have grown by 103%.

这是公司从人工智能中赚钱的地方,而当你拥有的公司在仅2026年就支出近2000亿美元时,作为股东,这正是你希望看到的收入增长率。

This is where the company makes its money from artificial intelligence, and this is the kind of revenue growth rates you would want to see as a shareholder when the company you own spends nearly $200 billion in 2026 alone.

你希望看到这些数字来证明所有这些支出的合理性,而我们看到这类数字来证明这种投资水平的合理性。Alphabet 一个全新且不断增长的增长类别是芯片销售。他们把自己的芯片称为 TPU,而 Nvidia 称其为 GPU。

他们在广泛客户中看到对这些芯片的强劲需求,并预计随着他们扩张,这一需求将持续。

You want to see these numbers to justify all this spending, and we see these kinds of numbers to justify these levels of investment. A new and growing category of growth for Alphabet is its chip sales.

They call their chips TPUs, while Nvidia calls them GPUs. They are seeing strong demand for these chips across a wide range of customers, and they expect this to continue as they expand.

许多公司并不需要最昂贵、最先进的选项;他们乐于使用 Alphabet 为那些想要 Nvidia 以外选择的客户提供的替代方案。一种在价格和性能之间取得平衡的方案,对吧?

Many companies do not need the most expensive and sophisticated options; they are happy to use an alternative that Alphabet provides for customers who want something other than Nvidia.

Something that offers a balance between price and performance, right?

你想要的并不只是更便宜却无法带来理想价值的东西。你想要的是价格更低但价值良好的东西,Alphabet 称其 TPU 单元实现了这一点。

You don't just want something cheaper that doesn't give you the desired value. You want something less expensive but good value, which Alphabet says it achieves with its TPU units.

至于其大语言模型,它们被非常广泛地使用。其模型 API 现在每分钟处理320亿代码,比上一季度增长40%,是去年同期的四倍多。

As for its large language models, they are used very extensively. Its model APIs now process 32 billion code per minute, up 40% from the previous quarter and more than four times that of the same time last year.

再次强调,我们要找的是高达2000亿美元支出的合理性依据。当你有一个客户使用率是去年四倍的领域时,鉴于客户巨大且似乎永不满足的需求,这证明了继续在该领域投入是合理的。

Again, what we are looking for is a justification for spending up to $200 billion. When you have a sector that your customers are using at four times the rate of last year, this justifies continuing to spend in it given the enormous and insatiable demand from your customers.

一家公司如果不是一群创造产品和服务来服务客户的人,又是什么呢?而这正是 Alphabet 在这里所做的。他们察觉到客户对特定产品和服务的需求,并渴望能够满足这一需求。他们想满足客户。

他们不想告诉客户缺货、没有这个产品,或者让客户去竞争对手那里购买。这不是他们想做的事。他们想提供那个产品来服务客户,这就是他们花很多钱的原因。

What is a company if not a group of individuals who create products and services to serve their customers? And that's exactly what Alphabet is doing here. They sense a demand from their customers for a particular product and service, and they are keen to be able to meet that demand.

They want to satisfy their customers. They don't want to tell their customers that they are out of stock and do not have this product. Or go to the competitors to buy it. This is not what they want to do.

They want to provide that product to serve their customers, and that's why they spend a lot of money.

事实上,Gemini 应用现已达到10亿用户,成为 Google 历史上增长最快的产品。所以,这些是我作为撰稿人观察到的几点证据。我自2020年起持有 Alphabet 股票。这让我能够接受他们在这里投入的数千亿美元。

In fact, the Gemini app has now reached one billion users, making it the fastest-growing product in Google's history. So, these are several points of evidence that I, as a contributor, have observed.

I have owned Alphabet shares since 2020. This makes me accepting of the hundreds of billions of dollars they spend here.

如果你问我细节和精确度,我会说,我希望他们调整支出,使其与公司产生的现金流相匹配,这样他们就不必出售股票、稀释股东的持股比例。

If you ask me for details and precision, I would say that I want them to adjust their spending to match the cash flow generated by the company so that they do not have to sell shares and reduce shareholders' stakes.

但这里我们就要深入到更细的层面,变得有选择性。总的来说,我喜欢一家公司向我展示出有效的资本配置,并找到合适的领域投入更多资金。所以我希望看到他们在这方面做得更多,而我在他们的模式中看到的正是这一点。

But here we get into the finer details and become selective. In general, I like it when a company demonstrates to me an effective allocation of capital and finds the right area to inject more of it.

So I want to see them do more of that, and that's what I see with their model.

观察点

资本开支是否被调整到与公司产生的现金流相匹配
支出与内部产生的现金流相匹配,而非依赖增发股票
未来几个季度季度财报
支持他的建设性立场

这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 8 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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