$GOOGL · Investing Simplified - Professor G · 2026-11-05
Google 业务表现良好（营收增长 25% 至 1276 亿美元，Cloud 增长 103% 至 307 亿美元，利润率 32%），但财报后因 AI 支出庞大和自由现金流为负 90 亿美元，股价下跌约 10%。我长期看多：在 280 美元、较 399 美元高点低 27% 处将仓位翻倍，并将继续逐步加仓。
逐段跳播
Alphabet 公布财报后，其股价一夜之间下跌了约10%。
Alphabet's stock fell by about 10% overnight after announcing its earnings,
接下来这家公司，正是伯克希尔去年6月向其注资100亿美元的那一家。
Now, the next company is the one into which Berkshire injected $10 billion last June.
好，我们来看这份名单上的第二个数字。这家公司是 Alphabet，也就是 Google，在我录制这段视频时，其股价约为290美元，此前在10月28日发布财报后下跌了约10%。这意味着该股今年下跌了7%，上个月下跌了14%，比5月份399美元的历史最高点低了27%。
但真正有意思的是，Google 的业务其实表现非常好。营收跃升25%，达到1276亿美元。Google Cloud 的规模翻了一倍多，增长了103%，达到307亿美元。凭借高达5610亿美元的大量待处理订单，搜索行业继续以12%的速度增长。
Gemini 的用户已超过10亿，营业利润率依然强劲，达到32%。那么，股价为什么下跌？支出。Alphabet 仅在3个月内就在人工智能基础设施上花费了近510亿美元，并计划今年支出1950亿至2050亿美元，2027年还会更多。
这使季度自由现金流降至负90亿美元。该公司还通过出售股份筹集了124亿美元，借款287亿美元，并停止了股票回购。营收和利润也低于预期。财报公布前，分析师们极为乐观，平均目标价约为420至430美元，比当前价格高出约45%。
Morning Star 估计其公允价值为433美元，但这些估计是在这份最新财报发布之前做出的。所以，大局是这样的。云业务营收翻了一番，但资本支出也翻了一倍多。投资者想知道，所有这些在人工智能上的支出究竟何时才能真正见效。
那么，我在这件事上的下一步是什么？我会把我的投资翻倍。我已经把我的投资翻倍了。在下跌的前一晚，我告诉我的学习小组我打算买入，第二天市场开盘时，我在每股280美元的价格把我的仓位翻倍，并在操作后立即通知了他们所有人。我对这笔买入很满意，并将长期持有这笔投资。
Okay, let's move on to the second number on this list. This is Alphabet, or Google, whose stock is trading around $290 as I record this video, after dropping about 10% following its October 28 earnings report.
This represents a 7% drop this year, 14% last month, and 27% below its record high of $399 in May. But what's really interesting is that Google's business is actually doing very well.
Revenue jumped 25% to $127.6 billion. Google Cloud has more than doubled in size, growing by 103% to reach $30.7 billion. With a massive backlog of applications worth $561 billion, the search industry continued to grow at 12%.
Gemini has surpassed one billion users and operating margins remain strong at 32%. So why did the stock price drop? Spending. Alphabet spent nearly $51 billion on AI infrastructure in just 3 months, with plans to spend between $195 billion and $205 billion this year, and more in 2027.
This pushed quarterly free cash flow to negative $9 billion. The company also raised $12.4 billion through share sales, borrowed $28.7 billion, and stopped share buybacks. Revenues and profits also came in below expectations.
Analysts were extremely optimistic ahead of the earnings announcement, with average price targets of around $420 to $430, about 45% higher than today's price. Morning Star estimated the fair value at $433, but those estimates were made before this latest report.
So, here's the big picture. Cloud revenues have doubled, but capital spending has more than doubled as well. Investors are wondering when all this spending on artificial intelligence will actually pay off.
So, what is my next step in this matter? I will double my investment. I have already doubled my investment. The night before the drop, I told my study group that I was going to buy, and the next day when the market opened, I doubled my position when the price was $280 per share and informed them all immediately after I did so.
I am happy with this purchase and will keep this investment for the long term.
我会把我在 Alphabet 的投资翻倍。我认为它是这份名单上评级最高的公司，因为财报发布后它比最高点低了约27%，我会逐步加仓。
I will double my investment in Alphabet. I think it's the best- rated company on this list, as it's about 27% lower than its highest level after earnings, and I'll be adding it gradually.
这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断
Investing Simplified - Professor G 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。