继续前请同意我们的使用条款、隐私说明及 YouTube 服务条款。

$GOOGL

$GOOGL · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-06

AI 摘要 · The Motley Fool

作为长期持有 Alphabet 的股东,说话者不会减持:AI 资本开支至少在未来几个季度将压制利润与现金流,这解释了其自 2004 年上市以来最差的单日跌幅——自由现金流为负 90 亿美元,每股收益 2.12 美元,低于 3.02 美元的预期。他不认为 AI 会杀死 Google 搜索;云收入翻倍以上至约 300 亿美元,总收入增长 25%,因此 AI 投入仍驱动长期增长。

看涨他说的是几年内
《4 AI Stocks Down Big — Time to Buy or Time to Run?》
The Motley Fool发布 2026-11-06 · 35 段内容
05:05/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

35 段内容
5:0529:10

我相信广告业务将在下个季度超过 Google 的收入,这很了不起。

I believe that advertising business will surpass Google's revenue by the next quarter, which is amazing.

然而,我仍然认为市场误解了 Meta 的业务,因为与 Microsoft、Amazon 或 Google Alphabet 不同,它没有云业务,无法说:“看,我们花了多少钱,并通过我们的云业务产生收入。”

However , I still think the market misunderstands Meta's business because, unlike Microsoft, Amazon, or Google Alphabet, it doesn't have a cloud business that allows it to say, "Look, we're spending a certain amount and generating revenue through our cloud business."

所以,我需要知道。过去几周谈到 Meta 时我已经重复了很多次,但它是那种公司之一,就像明年的 Google 一样(也许我们会在本视频中谈谈 Google,谁知道呢),是一家非常优秀的公司,对我来说交易价格非常有吸引力。

So, I need to know. I've repeated myself a lot when talking about Meta over the past couple of weeks, but it's one of those companies that, just like Google next year (and maybe we'll talk about Google in this video, who knows), is a very good company that's trading at very attractive prices for me.

好,这为我今天要谈的第一支箭铺平了道路。我必须谈谈 Alphabet,Google 的母公司,对吧?我的意思是,鉴于我们过去几周看到的暴跌,尤其是在财报公布之后,这或许是我们一直在做的事情中最清晰的例子之一。

Well, that paves the way for the first arrow I'm going to talk about today. I must talk about Alphabet, Google's parent company, right? I mean, this is perhaps one of the clearest examples of what we've been doing, given the collapse we've seen in the last few weeks, especially after the earnings announcement.

Alphabet,又称 Google,仍然在很大程度上依赖广告。我们有搜索引擎、YouTube 以及庞大的广告网络,构成了我们收入的大部分。

Alphabet, also known as Google, is still largely dependent on advertising. We have a search engine, YouTube, and a vast advertising network that makes up the bulk of our revenue.

当然,我们还有 Google Cloud,它是与 Amazon(AWS)和 Microsoft Azure 并列的第三大云计算服务提供商。

And of course, we have Google Cloud, the third largest provider of cloud computing services alongside Amazon (AWS) and Microsoft Azure.

Alphabet 一直在开发自己的人工智能模型,比如 Gemini 模型,并从中获得了巨额利润。这个模型对于运行消费者聊天机器人应用至关重要,对于直接内置于 Google 搜索引擎本身的人工智能层也同样至关重要。

Alphabet has worked on developing its own artificial intelligence models , such as the Gemini model, and has made huge profits from them. This model was fundamental to running the consumer chatbot application, as well as the AI layer built directly into Google's search engine itself.

举一些数字来说,Google Cloud 的收入增长了一倍多,其业务量同比增长超过100%,达到约300亿美元。

To give some figures, Google Cloud's revenue more than doubled, and its business volume grew by more than 100% year-on-year to reach an estimated $30 billion.

总收入同比增长25%。换句话说,Alphabet 在人工智能上的投资正在其核心业务中带来实实在在的业务成果。收入略高于预期。业绩略低于分析师的预测。每股收益为2.12美元,低于分析师预测的3.02美元。

Total revenues increased by 25% year-on-year. In other words, Alphabet's investments in artificial intelligence are delivering tangible business results at the heart of its operations.

Revenue came in slightly higher than expected. The results came in slightly below what analysts had predicted . Earnings per share came in at $2.12, below the $3.02 estimate predicted by analysts.

净利润也略有下降,主要原因是 Alphabet 的投资重估,包括其持有的 SpaceX 股份。因此,有一点很重要。如果你是 Alphabet 的股东,你可能会想发生了什么。这是主要原因之一。

Net income also declined slightly, mainly due to the revaluation of Alphabet's investments, including its stake in SpaceX. Therefore, it is important to note that. If you are a shareholder in Alphabet, you may be wondering what happened. This was one of the main reasons.

另一件让市场不舒服、也让我这个长期持有 Alphabet 的股东个人不舒服的事,是自由现金流达到负90亿美元。这比分析师预测的差得多。

The other thing that didn't sit well with the market, and with me personally as a long-time Alphabet shareholder , was that free cash flow reached a negative $9 billion. This is much worse than analysts predicted.

因此可以说,这个季度很艰难,尽管公司的核心业务仍在增长。当然,Alphabet 公布业绩后,我们立刻看到其股价大幅下跌,造成数百美元的损失,市值损失达数十亿美元。

Therefore, it can be said that this quarter was difficult, although the company's core business is still growing . Of course, immediately after Alphabet's announcement, we saw a sharp drop in its shares, resulting in a loss of hundreds of dollars. With billions of dollars in market value.

Alphabet 经历了自2004年上市以来最严重的单日跌幅。这次下跌打破了2020年3月创下的前纪录。所以,有几个促成因素。搜索增长有所放缓,原因之一是它们的人工智能系统。

Alphabet experienced its worst daily drop since going public in 2004. This drop broke the previous record set in March 2020. So , as you know, there are several contributing factors.

Research growth has slowed down a bit, and one of the reasons for this is their artificial intelligence system.

因此,你在 Google 上看到的搜索结果,以及那些最初的 AI 结果,在上个季度消费者使用量略有下降。很明显,我们看到搜索领域来自人工智能代理的竞争日益激烈。

Therefore , as you know, the search results you see on Google, and those initial AI results, are experiencing a slight decrease in consumer use in the last quarter. It is clear that we are seeing increasing competition from artificial intelligence agents in the field of research.

这一点也值得注意。这并不意味着 Alphabet 在搜索领域的整体版图有所萎缩,但这件事值得留意。正如我提到的,他们对 SpaceX 投资的重估影响了本季度的净利润。

This is also noteworthy. This does not mean that Alphabet’s overall footprint in the field of research has declined, but it is something worth noting. As I mentioned, the revaluation of their investment in SpaceX had an impact on net profit in the quarter.

作为 Alphabet 的长期股东,我从中得出的一个结论是,我不会减持我的股份。我在这个板块不持有任何股份。

One thing I conclude from this, as a long- term shareholder in Alphabet, is that I will not reduce my stake. I do not own any stake in this sector.

我认为,过去几年我们看到,对于与人工智能相关的支出,大型科技公司的股票、以及这一领域其他公司的股票,几乎得到了无条件的回报。Alphabet 就是那些被视为可靠的累积增长来源、几乎无可置疑的公司之一。我仍然相信,从长期来看情况也是如此。

I think that over the past few years we have seen almost unconditional rewards from the shares of giant technology companies, and indeed from others in this field, for spending related to artificial intelligence.

Alphabet was among those companies viewed as a reliable source of cumulative growth with minimal doubt . And I still believe that it is the same in the long run .

但我真的相信,我们看到的是,投资者希望看到,就像他们说的,业绩中的证据。他们希望看到增长数字真正兑现,因为我们看到大型科技公司的资本支出大幅增加,以及它们在人工智能上的投入,所以我们再次看到现金流承压、盈利能力承压。

But I truly believe that what we are seeing is that investors want to see, as they say, the evidence in the results. They want to see the growth figures actually materialize, as we are seeing this massive increase in capital spending from Big Tech companies, and what they are investing in artificial intelligence, so we are once again seeing pressure on cash flow, and pressure on profitability.

我不认为我们已经到了人工智能会扼杀 Google 搜索引擎的地步。我认为 Alphabet 在人工智能方面的投资很重要。我相信这推动了公司的底层增长。再说一次,营收增长强劲,云计算业务已经增长了一倍多。

I don't think we're at a point where artificial intelligence will kill off Google's search engine. I think Alphabet's investments in artificial intelligence are important. I believe it drives the company's underlying growth .

Once again, revenue growth is strong, and cloud computing business has more than doubled.

但我认为,我们现在看到的是增长预期正在回归正常。越来越多的人认识到,像 Alphabet 这样的公司为了维持在人工智能领域的角色和地位而投入的资金,至少在未来几个季度,会影响它们的利润和现金流。这可能无法让市场满意。

But I think what we are seeing is growth expectations returning to normal. There is a growing understanding that the amount of money companies like Alphabet are spending to maintain their role and position in artificial intelligence, at least for the next few quarters, will affect their profits and cash flow. This may not be satisfactory for the market.

我相信这是其长期增长的关键。我相信这是 Alphabet 长期增长的关键。但当然,正如你所知道的,市场并不喜欢它看到的情况,至少从这份最新财报来看是这样。我不会改变对 Alphabet 的立场,但正如你所知道的,从某些方面来说,这对公司来说是艰难的一个季度。

I believe that's the key to its long-term growth. I believe it is key to Alphabet's long-term growth. Well , but certainly, as you know, the market didn't like what it saw, at least not from this latest report.

I'm not going to change my stance towards Alphabet, but as you know, it was a difficult quarter in some respects for the company.

我也是 Alphabet 的粉丝。我认为我们现在面对的这家公司,大概一年左右之后,我们可能会看到 Google Cloud 的规模超过搜索业务,这很棒。

I'm also a fan of Alphabet. I think we are now facing a company where, in a year or so, we may see that Google Cloud is bigger than search, which is great.

说起来可能有点奇怪,但 Google Cloud 的营收同比已经增长了一倍多,利润率也略有扩大。

It may sound strange to say, but Google Cloud's revenue has more than doubled year-on-year , and profit margins have expanded slightly.

确实,正如我提到的,搜索量下降了。我的意思是,人工智能正变得越来越受欢迎,但他们并没有从中盈利。传统搜索也是如此,不过他们表示这很快就会增加。

It is true that the search volume has decreased, as I mentioned. Artificial intelligence, I mean, is becoming more popular, but they are not making profits from it. As well as traditional research, but they said this will increase soon.

他们还表示,本季度的搜索查询增长是过去五年来最高的。所以,很明显,Google 搜索依然强劲。唯一的问题是它没有产生利润,但我想这是有史以来第一个季度,搜索营收占业务的比例不到50%。

They also said that search query growth was the highest this quarter compared to the past five years. So, it's clear that Google search is still strong. The only problem is that it's not generating profits , but this is the first quarter ever , I think, in which search revenue is less than 50% of the business.

现在有人说:“这是一个非常悲观的指标。”但并非如此,Google Cloud 的营收翻了一番,目前达到300亿美元,并且还在继续增长,这是合理的。

Now , some are saying: "This is a very pessimistic indicator." But no, it makes sense that Google Cloud's revenues have doubled to reach $30 billion currently, and continue to grow.

订单积压也超过了5000亿美元。Tensor Processing Unit(TPU)业务也在快速增长。

The backlog of orders also exceeds half a trillion dollars. The Tensor Processing Unit (TPU ) business is also experiencing rapid growth.

所以,就像去年发生的那样,我认为 Google 的股价被高估了,而在我看来,鉴于其业务的多元化,公司的业绩正在显著改善。因此,未来它的业务不会仅限于搜索。

So, as happened last year, I think Google's stock price is overvalued, while the company's performance is improving significantly, in my opinion, given the diversification of its activities.

Therefore, her work will not be limited to research only in the future.

是的,我认为这是对的。正如你所知道的,作为长期投资者,我们永远无法仅凭一个季度就看清任何一家公司的表现。当然,过去几周对 Alphabet 的股价以及其他股票来说都很艰难。

Yes, I think that's correct. As you know, as long-term investors, we can never get a clear picture of any company's performance from just one quarter. Of course, the past few weeks have been tough for Alphabet's stock market and other stocks.

但是,正如我指出的,这家公司可能仍在借助人工智能实现核心效率的提升。我的意思是,AI 模型可能取得好坏参半的结果,但 Alphabet 在 Gemini 上的投资仍在推动核心广告业务向前发展。它对我们在云计算领域看到的增长贡献显著。

But, as I pointed out, this company may still be achieving core efficiencies thanks to artificial intelligence. I mean, the AI model may achieve mixed results, but Alphabet's investment in Gemini is still driving the core advertising business forward.

It is contributing significantly to the growth we are seeing in the field of cloud computing.

我总体上仍然相信,从长远来看,这些对公司来说是重大的收益。但我认为,我们现在正处于这样一个阶段:过度支出终于开始影响一些关键数据了,不是吗?在现金流、利润率和盈利能力方面。

I still generally believe that these are significant gains for the company in the long run. But I think we're at a stage where excessive spending is finally affecting some key figures, aren't we? In cash flow, profit margins and profitability.

我认为,包括 Alphabet 在内的这些公司的许多高管所达成的共识是,他们愿意承受一些短期困难,以维持长期竞争力。

I think the deal that many of the executives at these companies, including Alphabet, have made is their willingness to endure some short-term difficulties in order to maintain their long-term competitiveness.

是的,如果我们看他们的业务,只要投资资本回报率仍显著高于资本成本,他们花钱就是合理的。我认为不投资才是愚蠢的。

Yes, if we look at their business, it makes sense for them to spend if the return on invested capital remains significantly higher than the cost of capital. I think it would be foolish not to invest.

正如我们今天提到的,我们看到一些被认为是全球财务最稳健的公司发布了喜忧参半的财报,比如 Meta 和 Alphabet。

As we mentioned today, we have seen mixed reports from companies considered among the strongest financial companies in the world, such as Meta and Alphabet.

Alphabet在AI基础设施上投入巨额资金,而当其核心业务中有一块首次显现出AI可能略微拖慢其增长的迹象时,它却因此受到惩罚。

Alphabet spends huge sums on AI infrastructure, and is penalized when a segment of its core business shows the first signs that AI may be slowing its growth a little.

这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断

The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 17 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

跨洋听风