$GOOGL · Stock Moe · 2026-11-08
GOOGL 从 408 美元跌至 285 美元、跌幅 30% 后,是当前最值得买入的股票之一:营收和营业利润均创纪录,云业务快速增长,积压订单达 5610 亿美元;所有分析师的 12 个月目标价都高于当前股价(最低 325 美元,+14%;平均 400 美元,+41%;最高 500 美元,+76%)。若收盘跌破 280 美元,可能再跌 5%;自由现金流为负和每股收益不及预期是短期风险;只有当增长转为衰退时,这一判断才会失效。
逐段跳播
我们正在深入讨论 Google,也就是 Alphabet。这是现在最值得买入的股票吗?它现在处于折价状态,你能看出来。
We are discussing in depth about Google, also known as Alphabet. Is this the best stock to buy right now? It's available at a discount now, you can tell.
我知道很多人在关注这件事。他们给出的每股最高目标价是 500 美元。在制作这个视频时,它的价格只有 284 美元。
I know many people are watching this. Their maximum target price per share is $500. At the time this video was made, it cost only $284.
如果你相信他们能扭转局面,这是一个极好的机会。我也相信他们会扭转局面。你能看到正在发生什么。价格现在是 285 美元。它的最高价是 408 美元。它已经下跌了 30%。
This is an incredible opportunity, if you believe they can turn things around. I also believe that they will turn around. You can see what's happening. The price is now $285. Its highest price was $408. It has decreased by 30%.
这家全球领先的搜索公司之一的股票评级被上调了 30%。
Shares of one of the world's leading companies for search have been revised up by 30%.
他们有广告,有 YouTube,有 Gemini。这家公司拥有你需要的一切。Google 有太多业务在推进,如果你稍微回想一下就会说:“嘿,即便在 400 美元时,人们也很喜欢它。
他们很喜欢它。”人们当时都为之陶醉。而现在它打了 30% 的折扣,他们却说:“啊,我还能说什么呢。”可你在 400 美元时都喜欢它,285 美元时就不喜欢了吗?
They have ads, they have YouTube, they have Gemini. This company has everything you need. Google has so much going on that if you go back a little bit and say, "Hey, even at $400, people loved it.
They loved it." People were getting drunk. And now it's 30% off, and they're like, "Ah, what else can I say." Well, you liked it even for $400. Don't like it at $285?
创纪录的营收,创纪录的营业利润。你明白我的意思吗?你面对的是一家已经是全球最优秀的公司之一,而它现在正报告创纪录的营收和创纪录的营业利润。
Record revenue, record operating income. Do you understand me? You have a company that is already one of the best in the world, and they are now reporting record revenue and record operating income.
他们的营收是 1270 亿美元,营业利润是 400 亿美元,同比增长 30%,而 Google Cloud 增长了 103%。它在一年内从 150 亿美元增长到了 300 亿美元。
They have revenue of $127 billion, operating income of $40 billion, up 30% from last year, and Google Cloud has seen a 103 % increase. Which has gone from 15 billion to 30 billion in one year.
12%,634 亿美元来自 Google 搜索。这是增长。这个增长不错。是过去 5 年最高的。这个趋势还在延续。营收翻了一番,利润增长了两倍。
Well, 12%, 63.4 billion in Google searches. This is growth. This growth is not bad. The highest in the last 5 years. This trend continues. Revenue has doubled, profits have tripled.
云业务营收增长了 3.1 倍,在 12 个月内从 36 亿美元增长到 111 亿美元。云业务营收在 12 个月内从 36 亿美元增长到 110 亿美元。这家公司太了不起了。
Well, 3.1x growth in cloud revenue, from 3.6 billion to 11.1 billion in 12 months. Cloud revenue growth from $3.6 billion to $11 billion in 12 months. This company is incredible.
云业务营业利润率从一年前的 23.7% 提升到了 36.2%。你能看到云业务在增长。110 亿、300 亿、30 亿、150 亿。他们把这些业绩一层层堆叠起来。
Cloud operating margin has increased to 36.2% from 23.7% a year ago. You can see the cloud is growing. 11 billion, 30 billion, 3 billion, 15 billion. They are putting it together in a fat stack style.
还有剩余履约义务。他们已经签下了价值 5610 亿美元的合同。截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日的 Google Cloud 积压订单。一个季度又增加了 470 亿美元。按第三季度的运行速度计算,这是全年云业务销售额的 4.6 倍。这真的很棒。这是一个巨大的积压订单。
Well, the remaining performance obligation. They have already signed contracts worth 561 billion. Google Cloud backlog as of September 30, 2026. Another 47 billion was added in one quarter.
At a Q3 run rate, this is 4.6 times the year's cloud sales. This is really great. This is a huge backlog.
Google 遭受了一次打击,对吧?所以,正在观看的各位可以看到,我们面对的是 30% 的价格下跌。巨大的价格下跌。
Google has been dealt a blow, right? So, for those of you watching, you can see that we have a 30% price drop. Huge price drop.
我知道很多人相信这一点。你可以看成交量。我看到卖出成交量降到了这里的最低水平,而这正是我喜欢买入的时候,因为它通常会告诉我多头何时会再次活跃起来。这就是我喜欢它的原因。
And I know many people believe this. You can see the volume. I see the selling volume decrease to the lowest level here, and that's when I like to buy because it usually tells me when the bulls will be active again. And that's why I like it.
现在,如果你开始跌破最低水平,我要说清楚,价格总是有可能继续走低,但这就是我在这里看到的情况。如果我们跌到大约,这只是大约,比如说 280。如果一根 K 线收在 280 下方,我认为价格还会再跌 5%。
但现在,你在看什么?我们看到的是盘整,而且它正在向上突破那条线,这是好事。这并不意味着价格不可能下跌,但这是好事。但如果它跌破 280,那时你就会意识到,大概率会有更多抛售压力,这一点我之前稍微提到过。
Now, if you start to break the lowest level, and I'm being clear, there's always the possibility that the price could go lower, but that's what I see right here. If we get down to roughly, and this is roughly, 280, let's say.
If a candle ends below 280, I think the price will drop another 5%. But now, what are you looking at? We are seeing a consolidation and it is moving north of that line, which is good.
This does n't mean it's impossible for prices to go down, but it's good. But if it breaks 280, that's when you realize that there's probably going to be more selling pressure, which I talked about a little bit earlier.
然后,Google 也在赢得 AI 竞争。Gemini 应用有 10 亿用户。我在用。我知道我妻子在用,我知道孩子们在用,大家都在用。每分钟 320 亿个 token。第一方 API 的使用量相比一年前增长了三倍多。
他们在快速使用这些 API。TPU,自有的 AI 芯片。他们有自己的 AI。我再说一遍,他们自己的 AI 芯片。来自各类客户的强劲需求。这非常巨大。1.5 亿 YouTube 订阅用户。
包括试用在内的 Music 和 Premium。他们有那么多付费订阅的客户。
Then, Google is also winning the AI competition. 1 billion Gemini app users. I use it. I know my wife uses it, I know the kids use it, everyone uses it. 32 billion tokens per minute.
The use of first-party APIs has more than quadrupled compared to a year ago. They are using them rapidly. TPU's own AI chip. They have their own AI. I repeat, their own AI chip.
Strong demand from a variety of customers. It's huge. 150 million YouTube subscribers. Music and Premium, including trials. They have so many customers who subscribe with money.
在 58 位分析师中,有 53 位表示买入。没有人建议卖出。没有一个人说什么,你知道吗?这家公司不适合卖出。他们在迫使所有人要么持有,要么买入。91% 给出了买入评级。所以,我不只是在告诉你我自己的看法,我是在告诉你这些人的说法。
Out of 58 analysts, 53 are saying buy. No one is asking to sell. Not one person said anything, you know? This company is not good for sale. They are forcing everyone to either hold or buy. 91% rated it a buy.
So, I'm not just bringing you my beliefs, I'm telling you what these people are saying.
大公司们正在说明 Google 现在值多少钱。这些是他们发布这些评级的日期。我们要说,这一切都发生在过去两周内。
Big companies are saying how much Google is worth right now. And these are the dates when they published it. We will say that all of this happened in the last 2 weeks.
Google 的目标价预测[__]表现优于425,目标价意味着49%的上涨空间。这些都是12个月的目标价。而当你去看这些12个月目标价时,你会发现最差的是Bernstein的325,涨幅14%。
14%我也接受。你在开玩笑吗?再看看其他家的目标价。所以,如果我们取中间值,你应该考虑30%的涨幅。如果取中间位置,还会略高一点。明白吗?所以,我喜欢大公司在目标价预测上的做法。
我喜欢。就连最低的目标价也高于今天的价格。我之前就跟你说过,即使按最低目标价,价格也会上涨。华尔街最高的目标价是500,涨幅76%。此前的历史最高涨幅是43%。58位分析师的均值是400。
他们有均值,这让我们得出41%。就连华尔街最低的目标价也预示着上行。
Google's price forecast [ __ ] outperforms 425, target 49 % upside. These are 12-month targets. And when you look at the 12-month targets, you'll see that the worst one is Bernstein's 325. 14% increase.
I will take 14%. Are you kidding me? And see what the rest of them have. So, if we go to the middle ground here, you should think about a 30% increase. A little more if you go to the middle position.
Okay? So, I like what big companies are doing with their price forecasts. I like it. Even the lowest target is higher than today. I told you before, prices will increase even at the lowest target.
Wall Street's highest target is 500, a 76% increase. The old all-time high was 43%. And 400 average from 58 analysts. They have an average and that brings us to 41%. Even Wall Street's lowest target is signaling an upward move.
所以,以现在的价格来看,当Alphabet股价出现这么大的下跌时,这样的增长让它成为当下最值得买入的股票之一。
So, with the price where it is right now, when Alphabet stock takes such a big plunge, this kind of growth makes it one of the best stocks to buy right now.
现在,唯一不会发生这种情况的可能,就是这种增长演变成衰退。而你真的相信会这样吗?如果你关注了我的频道,我向你展示了他们给你的数据,你就会看到所有这些公司都增加了支出。它们正在受到惩罚,但并没有停下,因为AI的赢家将赢得未来20到40年。
所以,它们停不下来。它们知道人们会在短期内惩罚它们,但未来的收入和增长会弥补这一点。所以,它们会因为实现目标的方式而受到惩罚,但一旦实现目标,它们就会得到回报。这就是我的看法。
Now, the only way this won't happen is if this growth turns into a recession. And do you really believe that, if you followed my channel and I showed you the data they gave you, you would see that all these companies increased their spending.
And they are being punished, but they are not stopped because the winner of AI will win the next 20 to 40 years. So, they ca n't stop. They know that people will punish them in the short term, but future revenues and growth will make up for it.
So, they get punished for how they get there, but once they get there, they will be rewarded. And that's how I see it.
现在,我们深入来看,然后说:“那为什么价格会下跌?我真不太理解。”资本支出(CapEx)514亿。这是一个季度的资本支出。自由现金流已经转为负值。这不可能发生,对吧?长期不会,但短期也许可能。
第三季度为91亿。每股收益2.12美元,未达到目标。价值87亿美元的投资遭受了损失。第三季度没有回购。发行了新股和债券。
Now, we go deeper into it and say, "Well, then why did the price go down? I do n't really understand." Capital expenditure (CapEx) 51.4 billion. This is one quarter's capital expenditure.
Free cash flow has become negative. This can't be happening, right? Not in the long term, but maybe in the short term. 9.1 billion in the third quarter. Earnings per share of $2.12 failed to meet the target.
Investments worth $8.7 billion have suffered losses. There were no buybacks in the third quarter. New stocks and bonds have been issued.
我认为,随着股价下跌,回购也会减少。他们不会让股价跌得太低。这笔支出使云支出翻倍,达到300亿美元。这就是答案。而且他们在不断扩展云业务。所以,他们是在投资未来,依我浅见,他们会收获回报。
I believe that as the stock price falls, so will the buybacks. They wo n't let it get too low. This spending has doubled cloud spending to $30 billion. That's the answer. And they are constantly growing their cloud.
So, they are investing in the future and in my humble opinion, they will reap the rewards.
好。当然,他们有2650亿美元的现金及有价证券,还有5610亿美元的已签约云业务积压订单。哇。我跟你说。这就是为什么我认为这是现在最值得买入的股票之一。
Okay. And of course, you have $265 billion in cash and marketable securities, as well as a $561 billion signed cloud backlog. Wow. I'm telling you. This is why I think this is one of the best stocks to buy now.
这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断
Stock Moe 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。