$GRMN · Everything Money · 2026-11-02

Now, the third and final stock that analysts are recommending selling is Garmin, the manufacturer of GPS watches, fitness trackers, and navigation equipment for hiking, cycling, flying, and sailing.

This is why analysts have been advising to sell it. The stock has performed amazingly, rising by about 45% this year. The positive outlook is very strong.

Garmin is widely popular among professional athletes and pilots thanks to its durable, highly accurate devices and long battery life. It also has a strong presence in the fitness, aviation and maritime sectors.

Therefore , it does not depend on just one product.

Aviation and maritime navigation equipment, in particular, is sold at high prices to customers who rely on it heavily. Pilots and boaters don't randomly change their trusted equipment.

Garmin also manufactures most of its products in its own factories, giving it tight control over quality.

But here's what worries analysts: Garmin is competing with giants like Apple and Samsung, whose smartwatches connect directly to phones and are constantly improving in fitness and health tracking year after year.

As these cheaper, multifunctional watches continue to improve, Garmin may gradually lose its regular customers, leaving it with only enthusiastic aficionados. And remember, when a stock rises this quickly, there's likely a lot of good news embedded in it.

This means that Garmin not only needs to perform well from now on, but it needs to perform better than people expect.

So, let's take one last look. Before we talked about Garmin, I thought Garmin ran Apple Maps. So I turned to our AI system and asked it the question, and it replied: "No, Garmin does not run Apple Maps."

Then she thought: " Okay, if they lose a segment of consumers from their business, how big is that loss?" So I asked: "What percentage of Garmin's revenue comes from ordinary consumers compared to pilots and boat users?"

Guys, fitness and outdoor activity products, which are mostly consumer products, make up about 61%. Aviation and maritime navigation account for about 30%. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for automobiles, i.e., GPS devices and the like, make up 9%.

So, 61% represents a significant portion of their business, and I see many people using Apple products everywhere. Therefore, I understand the concern about the underlying market supply of this matter.

To continue our conversation, I am very impressed with our artificial intelligence tool. It's truly amazing that we were able to ask this question directly on the program. Guys, it's a company with a market value of $55 billion, and it has roughly the same institutional value . excellent!

This is amazing. This simply means that their debts are very low.

The company generated $ 1.6 billion in free cash flow last year, averaging $1.07 billion annually over the past five years, with its shares selling for 35 times its free cash flow.

The company has achieved good returns on capital, not spectacular , but good at 11% annually over the past five years, and steadily improving to reach 13.6% during the last year.

Profit margins are also slightly higher than the average of the past five and ten years, reaching 24.5% last year compared to 22.5 % over the past five and ten years. So, the question remains: why this sudden jump from 22.5% to 24.5% ? This is an important question.

Another thing I like is the low number of acquisitions, which amounted to only $376 million over the past five years, with an excellent growth rate . So, there are a lot of great things happening here .

I would like to ask the question: What has been the annual growth rate of their consumer products business over the past five years? I want to see if the market for their consumer products is growing or declining, or if only the growth rate is declining?

This is extremely important if it is part of the downward regression scenarios.

When you see a scenario of decline, look into more questions. Remember, investing is not easy, it's simple. It's easy to sit down and say, "Okay, what 's the next question to ask?"

Over time, as you watch more videos and learn more about the program, you will notice that.

We achieved growth of 28% in 2021, then a decrease of 8% in 2022, then an increase of 6% in 2023, and finally 18%. So, the market is still growing, but the question is: Is this growth enough?

Or is Apple growing? Who knows, maybe it's actually losing money, or is its growth due to pricing? I don't know. These are the questions that should generally be asked .

Let's take a look at Garmin's eight pillars. The number of outstanding shares is roughly equal, ignoring that they are only present in the five-year price-to-earnings ratio and the five- year price-to-free cash flow ratio.

As we mentioned , debt was low, revenues were high, net income was high, cash flows were high, and return on invested capital was high.

Okay, now let's move on to the analysts' estimates; there isn't much to see here. They have double-digit profit growth and revenue growth. Wow, look at this: 13.5%, 12.5%, 11%.

So, a very high growth rate for the next two years, but not many analysts are following them, only five here.

So, let's use our stock analysis tool. Well, I've made some changes, and we've seen significant revenue growth for the next two years. I only allocated 36% and 9% to Garmin for the next ten years, assuming that Apple will become more firmly established in people's lives.

After that, I got rid of the profit margin because it is much higher than free cash flow, and when it comes to free cash flow, I always go back to free cash flow as the primary criterion.

This is the lifeblood of the company, and the most difficult number to manipulate and change.

Therefore, I set 17%, 18.5% and 20% free cash flow based on their history. Then I will set the price-to- earnings ratio after 10 years. Guys, they are pioneers in the boating and aviation sectors, but in the field of wearable devices , they are not necessarily pioneers.

They have good returns on capital, but they are not fantastic. Therefore, I will put 15, 18, and 21%. I still believe that the company, given its balance sheet, is better than the average company , as well as the Standard & Poor's index, and finally my expected return of 9.5%.

As you can see, I've made some very reasonable assumptions about Garmin and some of the other companies we've done here, and that's something you can easily learn using our stock analysis tool

What you saw me do on Garmin took a minute or a minute and a half, and told me more about the stock than most people know before buying it.

Garmin's stock price is currently $288. I have a minimum price of $100, a maximum price of $228, and an average price of $150. Yes, I agree with the analysts. That's why I decided to withdraw. That's what the analysts are saying.