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$GS

$GS · Schwab Network · 2026-11-04

AI 摘要 · Schwab Network

对高盛持看空判断:今日逾2%的上涨看起来相对偏弱,被视为轮动/避险需求而非创新驱动,预计未来几周随着金融板块回落将出现下跌——但并非急跌;技术面没有令人信服的突破。

看跌他说的是几周内
《The Big 3: TLT, GS, AAPL》
Schwab Network发布 2026-11-04 · 5 段内容
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5 段内容

但我们继续看你这里的下一件事。你有高盛。我们看金融板块,今天我们看到资金良好地流向金融股。我们目前上涨2又3/4个百分点。最近一条关于高盛的头条也让我印象深刻,他们不再允许银行家和交易员使用人工智能,这与我们一直广泛看到的AI趋势相比是一个重大转变。

他们现在限制许多员工使用它。但我认为你在这里过于悲观了,因为我知道你不喜欢其中许多走势,你认为它们会是短暂的。那么,这也是我们对高盛的看法吗?

But let's move on to the next thing you have here. You have Goldman Sachs. We are looking at the financial sector and we see a good move towards financial stocks today. We are currently up 2 and 3/4 percent.

I was also impressed by a recent headline about Goldman Sachs that they are no longer allowing their bankers and traders to use artificial intelligence, a significant shift from the AI trend we have been seeing so widely.

They are now restricting its use to many of their employees. But I think you're being pessimistic here because I know you don't like many of these moves and you think they'll be short-lived. So, is this our view of Goldman as well?

这完全符合我在这里说的。这是一次源于缺乏创新的上涨。你不能使用人工智能。事情应该按照我们100年前的方式来做。高盛完全符合这一点。另一件事是,除了它们是救生艇之外,有人能对为什么我们今天转向任何金融股提出一个合理的解释吗?

如果海洋中间有一艘救生艇,上面有一群高盛高管,你甚至会上那艘救生艇吗?我必须告诉你,我想我会冒险留在开阔水域。我在这里做好准备,我将对高盛采取悲观立场,仅仅因为今天对高盛股票有需求。

它略高于2%,但相对而言看起来相当疲弱。高盛的情况看起来不好。看起来我们在这里会看到更多抛售。我的意思是,市场什么时候才会醒来并意识到,它无法完全转向金融板块、基本消费品,或任何如我所说的缺乏创新的东西?

而且,高盛完全符合这里。我将做这笔交易直到11月20日到期。这笔交易不需要是长期的。我不预期大幅下跌,但我确实预期下跌。我将再次回到这里的期权到期日。再次,在11月20日,买入行权价880的看跌期权,卖出行权价870的看跌期权。

这是一个整整10美元的看跌期权价差,以3美元的折价报价。我只是期待未来几周出现一些良好的抛售活动,因为我们玩轮动游戏,并看到其中一些金融股出现轻微回调。在这种情况下,具体是高盛。

You know, this fits perfectly with what I'm saying here. It is a rise stemming from a lack of innovation. You cannot use artificial intelligence. Things should be done the way we did them 100 years ago.

Goldman Sachs fits perfectly with this. You know, the other thing is, can anyone come up with a reasonable idea of why we've turned to any financial stocks today other than that they're a lifeboat?

If there was a lifeboat in the middle of the ocean and it had a group of Goldman Sachs executives on board, would you even get on that lifeboat? I must tell you, I think I would risk staying in open water there.

I am preparing myself here and I will take a pessimistic stance towards Goldman Sachs simply because there is demand for Goldman stock today. It is slightly over 2%, but it seems rather weak on a relative basis.

Goldman's situation doesn't look good. It looks like we'll be seeing more sales here. I mean, when will the market wake up and realize that it will not be able to shift entirely to the financial sector, basic consumer goods, or anything lacking in innovation, as I said?

And ah, Goldman Sachs fits perfectly here. I will make this transaction until the expiry date on November 20th. The deal doesn't need to be long-term. I don't expect a sharp decline, but I do expect a decline.

I will return again to the expiry date of the options here. Again, on November 20th, buy put options at 880 and sell put options at 870 for them. It is a put option spread with a full $10 bid at a discount of $3.

I'm just looking forward to some good selling activity in the next couple of weeks as we play the rotation game and see a slight pullback in some of these financial stocks. In this case, specifically Goldman Sachs.

好。所以,我们今天有一个上行走势,Rick,但Don不认为这次上涨会持续。你也看到技术设置上存在下跌的可能性吗?

Good. So, we have an upward move today, Rick, but Don doesn't see that this rise as going to continue. Do you also see a possibility of a decline in technical settings?

我也确实很喜欢救生艇这个比喻。鲨鱼通常不会和你一起待在救生艇里,但这次,我觉得……嗯,情况就是这样。不过,我们在这里看到的是,我们经历了一次非常温和的上涨,以及在4月财报后低点触底之后形成的一条小幅上升趋势线。

但从那里开始,你可以看到我们经历了一段更长的下跌。1154大约是我们的最高水平。我们把随后这些上涨连接起来。看起来我们曾两次测试这条上升趋势,但我们并没有看到强劲且有说服力的突破,越过这条长期趋势线。

一些值得注意的高点,这里的939是我们在短期上冲之后确立的最后一个峰值。我们这里还有967,以及1019附近的一个小缺口。下行方面,880是我们在向下缺口之后最后一个相对低点。

正如我在这里所说,我们在866附近反复出现了一系列下探。现在我们可以看到,我们的移动平均线呈现出类似的图景。它们彼此相对接近。这些是横向聚集的移动平均线,只是朝这个方向漂移。这通常表明缺乏强劲而明确的方向。

在这种情况下,我们的5日、21日和251日移动平均线最为接近。5日和21日移动平均线几乎相同,都在905或906水平。因此,任何跌破该水平的走势都值得关注,尤其是如果你预期会出现向下回调。

相对强弱指数呈上升趋势,但尽管越过了50的中线,我们并没有突破此前价格或指数的高点。我们现在也正处于251日指数移动平均线的水平。因此,多头能否突破这条长期移动平均线将很重要。

成交量分布显示,我们在这里有一个交易节点,位于880到950之间。我们的控制点大约位于935.69。所以,我们也未能超越该水平。那大致就是我们最近达到峰值的位置,连同我们的短期突破。

这里800到820附近的区域将是另一个节点,小得多,但仍然值得关注。

I certainly liked the lifeboat analogy as well. Sharks are not usually inside the lifeboat with you, but in this case, I think ... well, that's how it is. However, what we are seeing here is that we have seen a very modest rise, and a small upward trend line after we bottomed out at the post-earnings levels we saw in April.

But from there, you can see that we have seen a longer decline. 1154 was approximately our highest level. We connect these subsequent rises here. It seemed as though we had tested the uptrend twice, but we had not seen a strong and convincing breakout beyond this long-term trend line.

Some notable high points, 939 here was our last peak that we established after our short-term push upwards there. We also had 967 here, plus a small gap near 1019. On the downside, 880 was our last relative low point after the gap we saw downwards.

As I said here, we had a recurring series of dips near 866 or so. Now we can see here that our moving averages are showing a similar picture. They are relatively close to each other.

These are sideways clustered moving averages that simply drift in this direction. It usually indicates the absence of a strong and specific direction. Our averages for 5 days, 21 days and 251 days are the closest in this situation.

The 5-day and 21-day moving averages are almost identical at the 905 or 906 level. Therefore, any break below this level is worth paying attention to, especially if you are expecting a downward pullback.

The Relative Strength Index is trending upwards, but despite crossing the midline at 50, we have not broken through previous highs in price or index. We are also at the level of the 251-day exponential moving average right now.

Therefore, it will be important to see if the bulls can break above this long-term moving average. The volume profile shows that we have a trading node here, between 880 and 950.

Our control point is located at approximately 935.69. So, we also failed to surpass that level. That was roughly where we recently reached our peak, along with our short-term breakthrough.

The area here, near 800 to 820, will be another node, much smaller, but still worth paying attention to.

好,现在我们又来看Goldman Sachs。今天早盘Goldman Sachs在916.48处有超过2%的买盘报价。

Well, now we're looking at Goldman Sachs again. There is a buy offer of more than two percent at 916.48 this morning for Goldman Sachs.

这个频道对 $GS 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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