HD 具备上涨条件：季节性形态正处于其上涨时点，资金流指标显示在季节性低点出现买入，同时顾问看空而专业投资者在买入。周期显示 HD 从当前到明年 3 月有 76% 的时间上涨，不过上涨未必现在就开始；他希望先出现趋势转变再买入。
逐段跳播
这里还有一只我喜欢的股票，Home Depot。哦，我的天，看看这个季节性形态，我们在股票图表中看到它是要上涨的。
here's another stock I like Home Depot oh my gosh look at this seasonal pattern we see that in se in the stock charts to go up
我应该指出，我在stockcharts.com上的季节性形态看起来和别人的都不一样，因为我在1970年代写下第一本关于商品市场季节性形态的书时犯了一个错误，因为我们现在用的是同一个季节性形态，用的是所有回溯历史的数据，我们用这些数据来制作现在和30年前那个时点的季节性形态，这是一个很大的错误。
所以我的季节性形态只用到现在的数据，所以如果我们回到比如10年前，我们就只会用10年前的数据。其他所有人的，我是说现在所有人的季节性形态，都用这里所有的数据来显示10年前的季节性形态。
那实际上用的是样本外数据。在我的真实季节性里，这就是为什么我们叫它真实季节性，对吧？没有样本外数据。
I should point out my seasonal pattern in stockcharts.com does not look like anybody else's seasonal pattern because I made a mistake when I wrote the first book ever on seasonal patterns in the commodity market way back in the 1970s because we use the same seasonal pattern using now all the data going back in time we use that to make the seasonal pattern for now and for 30 years ago and that's a big error so my seasonal pattern uses data just up to now so if we went back to say 10 years ago, we would only use data from 10 years back.
Everybody else's, and I mean everybody's right now in the seasonal patterns use all the data here to show the seasonal pattern 10 years ago. It's really using out of sample data.
In my true seasonal, that's why we call it true seasonal, right? There's no out of sample data.
但总体来看，我们今年跟随了季节性形态，我们正接近Home Depot的上涨时点，我们想看看资金流指标怎么样。哦，看看当资金流指标显示他们一直在买入市场时会发生什么。是的，尤其是在季节性低点。
季节性低点。他们一直在买入市场，我们往往会随之上涨。嗯。不错。
But we see in generally we followed the seasonal pattern this year and we're getting to the rally time for Home Depot and we want to see what's the money flow index. Oh, look what happens when the money flow index shows they've been buying the market.
Yeah, especially at a seasonal low. Seasonal low. They've been buying the market and we tend to rally. Hm. Nice.
我们看顾问们。他们对Home Depot一直非常看空，而专业人士一直在买入市场。所以，哦，我们这里具备了条件。这并不意味着市场今天、这一小时就会立刻上涨，但我们有对我们有利的条件，能让这个市场上涨。
We look at the advisors. They've been very bearish on Home Depot while the professionals been buying the market. So, oh, we have the conditions here. It doesn't mean the market will rally instantly today, this hour, but we have the conditions in our favor to get this market to rally.
接下来我们可以看看周期。周期在当前这个市场里说明了什么？周期说明，从现在到明年3月，有76%的时间是上涨的。你可以看到，即便是在进入2000年的时候也是如此。
Then we can start to look at cycles. What does cycle suggest in this market? Well, cycle suggest that from now into March of next year, we rallied 76% of the time. You can see that even going into 2000.
但我认为，这个市场有很大的上涨倾向，因为我们有周期预测，而且条件也已经为Home Depot的上涨做好了铺垫。所以，我们在这里是把多种因素结合起来，拼凑出一笔应该能盈利的交易。
现在唯一还缺的，就是这个市场出现某种趋势转变。所以我不想仅仅因为它跌了就买入。我希望看到它站上某条移动平均线、突破某条趋势线、形成更高的短期低点，或者你手头有的任何入场方法。但它准备好了吗？是的，它准备好了。
But I think we have a great tendency for this market to rally because we have the cycle forecast and we have the conditions set up for Home Depot to rally. So again, we're using like a combination of things here to put together what should be a profitable trade.
The only thing you need left now is some type of a trend change in this market. So I don't want to buy just because it's been down. I would like to see getting above a moving average, getting above a trend line, the formation of higher short-term lows, or whatever entry techniques you have. But is it set up? Yeah, it's set up.